Lookit, there is a fundamental flaw in this argument, which is why I called it inane.
Each of the people I've quoted are AMERICANS, and they are as "immersed" in the local scene as you or Craven is. Hell, those two TNR debaters?
Bostonian journalists. If *they* are not immersed in how their own senator comes across, in the mid- to long-term, to average Joes, then who is? They see the same magazine covers, local newspapers' front pages, hear the same street talk, yet all that immersion still doesnt make them share your or Craven's opinion on Kerry's electability any more. So that simply cant be
it.
I would in fact, hazard quite an opposite guess. They have been following Kerry for quite a while, they've observed him interact with Mass. voters and fellow-politicians for years, they've witnessed how he eked out a victory against Weld in one of the most liberal states in the union. Now both Craven and you, on the other hand, have written here recently that you've really only kinda just started to look into this. You said he hasnt really ever been on your radar before, period. And Kerry sure does look good right now - look at the latest polls in which he does better against Bush than any of the other candidates. So if you go on the impression of this moment, yeh, sure.
But there is a certain "flavour of the month" element going on here. When Clark boosted upon the scene last fall?
He did better than any of the other Dems against Bush in the polls, significantly so, in fact, and everybody was (perhaps prematurely) talking of
his crossover appeal. Even
Dean, incredibly, did at least as well as the others against Bush in the polls when he was riding high. The winner of the moment always looks good for the moment.
Kerry, once the front-runner, has been out of the main focus for a loong while, with all the critical media spotlight on Dean ("Dean, Dean, Dean ...", in Kerry's words
. Now, suddenly, Kerry jumped ahead of the pack, and has got the momentum. And with Democratic voters desperate to find, finally,
the electable candidate they've been yearning for and hoping this one, at least, will be it - and with the other contenders, after the Iowa debacle for Dean and Gephardt, too afraid to launch anything that could be remotely seen as "negative campaigning" - Kerry is almost getting a free ride at the moment. But it wont always be so.
Again, when the Americans I've been quoting / reading write that Kerry just wont cut it, with the American audience at large, once the critical spotlight of media scrutiny and Rove propaganda does start hitting him, you may disagree, going on the impression he's been making right now. Yet thats what they're predicting - and that judgement is naught to do with
me being the clueless foreigner or not being "immersed" enough.