@Irishk,
Pure speculation for the novel:
It is highly likely that president Obama will spend part of 2012 (at least until after November) talking up how seriously he and his administration is committed to the well being of Israel. He doesn't want to lose usually reliable Democrat Jewish votes.
At the same time, he very much doesn't want Israel to bomb Iran during 2012. If it does, he will have to either condemn or support it and either approach could cost him votes.
Additionally, an Israeli strike against Iran could easily result in escalation that will have a very bad effect on the US economy. Clearly he doesn't want that.
So as much as he may want to prevent Iran from obtaining nukes (if he does at all), he wants to keep Israel from attacking Iran even more.
What to do?
Here's the speculative part:
Israel has made it clear to Obama that it will strike Iran in 2012 if nothing serious is done to significantly delay or eliminate its nuclear program. US officials are certain they are not bluffing.
Obama tells Bibi "Sit tight, my guys will take steps that should finally make you happy"
He then has the CIA launch a comprehensive covert operation against Iran's nuclear program including the introduction of computer viruses, facility sabotage and targeted assassinations of key nuclear scientists.
Leon Panetta, as head of the CIA is not very supportive of the operation and doesn't want his name attached to it. Obama moves him to DOD and brings in a military guy to run the agency; someone less squeamish about covert violence and who really doesn't want to see more American service men and women lose their lives and limbs in the Middle East.
Obviously Obama is scared sh*tless that Iran will somehow be able to prove the US is behind the operation, but the spooks assure him that with help from friendly countries like Israel and the UK, they can avoid any direct connections.
Now for the plot's develoment:
At some point in time in 2012, something goes terribly wrong with one of the operational missions and hundreds of innocent Iranians are killed with radioactive contamination being released. One of the operators is captured, and it’s only a matter of time before the Iranians will break him under torture.
Scenario #1: Panetta is disgusted, horrified and scared he will be implicated, and leaks information on
Operation 4 More Years to a friendly reporter at the NY Times who assures him he will be certain to paint Panetta in the best of lights. International and domestic outrage blossoms and Obama loses the election.
Problem: The NY Times would never publish the story, and Obama's supporters will believe he had no choice because of the mess Bush left him - he still could win
Scenario #2: By promising to offer no opposition to Russia's retaking of the former Soviet states in Eastern European and Western Asia, Obama gets Putin to agree to do whatever it takes via his Iranian connections and his own intelligence services to have the blame laid on Somali Pirates.
Problem: Putin knows he doesn't need to cut any deals with Obama to retake the Soviet Empire, he just needs to do it.
Scenario #3: By promising Iran to give them actual nukes in 2013, plus a trillion dollars in cross-cultural development aid he persuades The Supreme Leader to make Iranian Opposition forces the fall-guy. The mullahs then launch a violent purge against any and all Iranians who may even smell like they oppose them, and Obama condemns the terrorist actions of the Iranian Opposition and refuses to interfere in the internal politics of Iran.
(
Problem: None. This is how the novel ends along with the DNC assassination of the story's handsome and beautiful protagonists who know the truth and drive to Washington DC to spill the beans at the steps of the Lincoln Memorial)