@MontereyJack,
This really is something that the West should keep out of. We have got two right wing regimes feeding off each other in order to justify their own existence/policies. Both of these regimes are terrified of the Arab Spring.
The hardliners in Iran were strengthened by Bush's axis of evil speech, and the invasion of Iraq has turned it into little more than Iran's client state. The iranian regime is deeply unpopular, the election on Friday was boycotted by the opposition. Sanctions are starting to bite, and most people are more concerned about the price of basic foodstuffs than anything else. Iran's main ally in the region Syria, is ruthlessly putting down its own people, and it's only a matter of time before Assad's regime is toppled. The first cracks are already starting to show with the defection of Syria's deputy oil minister Abdo Hussameldin.
Quote:Syria's deputy oil minister, Abdo Hussameldin, has announced his defection on YouTube, becoming the first high ranking civilian official to abandon President Bashar al-Assad since the uprising against his rule erupted a year ago.
"I Abdo Hussameldin, deputy oil and mineral wealth minister in Syria, announce my defection from the regime, resignation from my position and withdrawal from the Ba'ath party. I join the revolution of this dignified people," Hussameldin said in a YouTube video uploaded on Wednesday and seen early on Thursday.
"I say to this regime: you have inflicted on those who you claim are your people a whole year of sorrow and sadness, denying them basic life and humanity and driving Syria to the edge of the abyss," he said, adding the country's economy was "near collapse".
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/mar/08/syria-deputy-oil-minister-defects-assad-regime
What this deeply unpopular regime desperately needs is an outside threat, in order to silence internal dissent, that way the opposition will have to be quiet or risk being called agents of 'Zionist Imperialism.'
Netanyahu's regime is arguably the most right wing in its history, is deeply indebted to the settler movement for its support, and has the far right Avigdor Lieberman as its foreign minister. Israel is the military superpower in the region, and is more than capable of ensuring its own security. What it's not capable of is expanding its borders without help, and that is really what this is about. Illegal settlements continue to be built in the West Bank, creating facts on the ground, all of which is designed to make a future Palestinian State unfeasable.
War with Iran would give Netanyahu the excuse, to invade Lebanon and Syria, and to reoccupy the Gaza Strip, all in the name of security, and they'd probably try to take credit for the 'humanitarian' decision to annex parts of Syria. Those adjoining Israel, know this is Israel's objective, and have decided not to play along. Hamas in particular is turning its back on long term sponsor Iran, and instead is trying to align itself with Egypt's fundamentalist, yet democratic Moslem Brotherhood.
Quote:Hamas will not do Iran's bidding in any war with Israel, according to senior figures within the militant Islamic group.
"If there is a war between two powers, Hamas will not be part of such a war," Salah Bardawil, a member of the organisation's political bureau in Gaza City, told the Guardian.
He denied the group would launch rockets into Israel at Tehran's request in response to a strike on its nuclear sites. "Hamas is not part of military alliances in the region," said Bardawil. "Our strategy is to defend our rights"
The stance underscores Hamas's rift with its key financial sponsor and its realignment with the Muslim Brotherhood and popular protest movements in the Arab world.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/mar/06/hamas-no-military-aid-for-iran?INTCMP=SRCH
Most of us in the West support the Arab Spring, but both Israel and Iran are terrified by it. Iran, because the movement threatens the theocratic regime, and Israel, because it hampers its expansionist policy and takes away its most potent argument, that of being the only democracy in the region.
Quote:Three years ago, Obama was promising to shift the weight of US power to drive Israel towards a deal with the Palestinians whether it really wants one or not. But the president of hope has been confronted with the prime minister of doom. Netanyahu sees only threats. The Arab Spring is a menace — more like an Arab Winter. Hamas is seeping into the Palestinian power structure. And now there's Iran.
Israel's threat of another war has at least saved Netanyahu from having to talk to Obama about his least favourite subject; the future of a people who have yet to be given the right to make their own decisions.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/mar/06/netanyahu-meets-obama?INTCMP=SRCH