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Tick, tick. August 2nd is the Debt Limit Armageddon. Or Not.

 
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Aug, 2011 07:04 pm
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:

georgeob, Your response is extreme! 60% taxation?


You are correct there. I used it to illustrate the fatuity of yor suggestion that the government can create lasting beneficial activity through its direct spending. I am frankly surprised that you didn't notice that the much touted "stimulus" of two years ago didn't produce any jobs outside of government.
cicerone imposter
 
  2  
Reply Tue 2 Aug, 2011 07:57 pm
@georgeob1,
That's where you are wrong.

From FactCheck.
Quote:
Did the Stimulus Create Jobs?
Yes, the stimulus legislation increased employment, despite false Republican claims to the contrary.


September 27, 2010
Bookmark and Share
Summary

The economic stimulus package is a favorite target of Republican candidates and groups, but more than a few ads falsely claim it did not create or save any jobs. Some recent examples:

Republican House candidate Dan Debicella charges that Democratic Rep. Jim Himes failed Connecticut’s families because he voted for a "stimulus package that has done nothing to reduce unemployment."
Rick Scott, the Republican candidate for governor in Florida, says Democrat Alex Sink "backed the failed stimulus bill, which created debt, not jobs."
Similarly, Sink — who never served in Congress and didn’t vote on the bill — is attacked by the Republican Party of Florida in an ad that says the stimulus "gave us big debt and no jobs."
Americans for Prosperity, a conservative group that does not have to disclose its donors, aired an ad against Democratic congressional candidate Denny Heck of Washington that claimed the "$787 billion stimulus … failed to save and create jobs." The group has launched similar ads against other Democrats.
Kristi Noem, a Republican House candidate from South Dakota, calls the measure a "jobless stimulus."

The truth is that the stimulus increased employment by between 1.4 million and 3.3 million people, compared with what employment would have been otherwise. That’s according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.
Analysis

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, more commonly known as the stimulus bill, has been featured in more than 130 TV ads this year, according to a database maintained by Kantar Media’s Campaign Media Analysis Group. In many of those ads, Republicans claim the bill has "failed" (a matter of opinion) or state (correctly) that unemployment has gone up since President Barack Obama signed the bill into law on Feb. 17, 2009. The national unemployment rate was 8.2 percent in February 2009, and it now stands at 9.6 percent, having peaked at 10.1 percent in October 2009.

But it’s just false to say that the stimulus created "no jobs" or "failed to save and create jobs" or "has done nothing to reduce unemployment" – or similar claims that the stimulus did not produce any jobs.

As we have written before, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released a report in August that said the stimulus bill has "[l]owered the unemployment rate by between 0.7 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points" and "ncreased the number of people employed by between 1.4 million and 3.3 million."

Simply put, more people would be unemployed if not for the stimulus bill. The exact number of jobs created and saved is difficult to estimate, but nonpartisan economists say there’s no doubt that the number is positive.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Aug, 2011 08:34 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Quote:
ncreased the number of people employed by between 1.4 million and 3.3 million."

Simply put, more people would be unemployed if not for the stimulus bill. The exact number of jobs created and saved is difficult to estimate, but nonpartisan economists say there’s no doubt that the number is positive.
So $787 billion was spent not including TARP or the auto bailout which works out to $395,000 per job if you assume 2 million jobs, and you are trying to argue that we got value for our money??!! What if we had done a WPA program and paid min wage or slightly better, lets say paid each citizen $25 k a year to do something worthwhile and had on overhead of 10% for a final cost of $27,500?? per year?? Wouldn't that have been a lot better from an efficiency and fairness perspective??
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Tue 2 Aug, 2011 08:44 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
I am frankly surprised that you didn't notice that the much touted "stimulus" of two years ago didn't produce any jobs outside of government.


No serious economist agrees with this. Not even right-wing economists on the Republican sites I read agree with this.

Since the ARRA was passed, the private sector stopped losing more jobs, and grew every single month until positive job creation began - and jobs within government have shrunk by over 500k in that time period.

In fact, there are less Federal workers as a percentage of the population now, than at any other time in the last 70 years. Here's a graph of gov't jobs under Obama - the spike is Census hiring:

http://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/jobs-1.jpg

Every single month for the last 16, we've seen gains in the private sector, and losses in the public one. So I think it's fair to say that you are totally wrong.

Stuff like this is why I laugh at your repeated assertions and pompous strutting about. You regularly repeat things that you've read elsewhere which are total lies, and if you took the time to look at actual data, you'd see that.

Cycloptichorn
cicerone imposter
 
  2  
Reply Tue 2 Aug, 2011 08:51 pm
@hawkeye10,
You are again proving your ignorance. "Cost per job?" ROFLMAO

You really don't know what you are talking about. Off by about 1k%.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Aug, 2011 08:55 pm
@hawkeye10,
hawkeye10 wrote:

Quote:
ncreased the number of people employed by between 1.4 million and 3.3 million."

Simply put, more people would be unemployed if not for the stimulus bill. The exact number of jobs created and saved is difficult to estimate, but nonpartisan economists say there’s no doubt that the number is positive.
So $787 billion was spent not including TARP or the auto bailout which works out to $395,000 per job if you assume 2 million jobs, and you are trying to argue that we got value for our money??!! What if we had done a WPA program and paid min wage or slightly better, lets say paid each citizen $25 k a year to do something worthwhile and had on overhead of 10% for a final cost of $27,500?? per year?? Wouldn't that have been a lot better from an efficiency and fairness perspective??


288 Billion of the ARRA was tax cuts, so it's not really fair to say that we 'spent' that money to create jobs.

However, in a break from your norm, you are 100% correct that a WPA style jobs program should have happened and still should happen. It would have been far more effective for less money.

Cycloptichorn
georgeob1
 
  0  
Reply Tue 2 Aug, 2011 09:31 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
You are assuming that any new job that opened in the last few years was necessarily a result of the stimulus. That is nonsense. We have spent (wasted) more on such programs in the aftermath of this recession than any other in recent times and have seen a far slower recover of the economy and job growth than any other. That alone is not suggestive of efficacy.

The fact is our recovery from the current recession has been hurt far more by the ill advised expansion of regulatory efforts by this administration and its truly nutty choices to shut down petroleum production in Alaska and along our coasts; expand the reach of the EPA into energy policy and provide unquestioning support for retrograde labor unions than it was helped by a massive stimulus that merely delayed the day of reconing for bloated state bureaucracies by a year or so. The lasting effects were minimal at best. You assert that "most economists agree", but don't say who and don't specify just what it is they agree on.

Your graph above is a bit deceptive in its presentation. The scale shows a range of 500,000 for a total government employment of more than 22,500,000 = less than 2.5% of the total. Most of the change illustrated had to do with the build up to and decline following the last census.

You are reaching lower and lower in your bag for arguments in defense of the indefensible.

Any bets on the next election?

cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Aug, 2011 10:14 pm
As I've said many times before, health care costs must be controlled through adjustments in age for retirement and when Medicare benefits kick in.

The current cost increases cannot be sustained. It only makes "D" day much sooner.

* "D" day = death day for these benefits.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Aug, 2011 12:21 am
@georgeob1,
Quote:
You are assuming that any new job that opened in the last few years was necessarily a result of the stimulus.


I neither assumed nor stated that at any point. You should stick to addressing my comments, and not the argument you'd rather be having.

You stated:

Quote:
I am frankly surprised that you didn't notice that the much touted "stimulus" of two years ago didn't produce any jobs outside of government.


The stim bill didn't really create any jobs inside government, and it certainly didn't create any sizable number of them. There is no evidence that the statement you made here is true. You're simply incorrect, and looking to throw up a smokescreen rather than admit it.

What I said, on the other hand, is true - after the stim bill was passed, private employment began to rise immediately and quickly turned from losing jobs each month to gaining them. At the same time, government continued to shed jobs at all levels. You don't challenge these statements of mine because you cannot - instead, you simply repeat your screeds about Obama and energy production over and over again. It's boring to watch you try and duck the fact that you made a completely false claim and hide it by railing against someone whose politics you disagree with.

Quote:
Your graph above is a bit deceptive in its presentation. The scale shows a range of 500,000 for a total government employment of more than 22,500,000 = less than 2.5% of the total. Most of the change illustrated had to do with the build up to and decline following the last census.


I specifically noted that when I posted the graph, so I don't know how you could call that deceptive. And once again, I'll point out that what I said above was completely true: the proportion of Federal government workers to members of our population is the lowest it's ever been in your or my lifetime. How does that square with your claim that the stim bill created gov't jobs?

It's difficult to see how your case holds water in the face of the facts I've provided here. Why don't you just admit that you made a flip, inaccurate comment - instead of making yourself look like a fool by digging in?

Quote:
You assert that "most economists agree", but don't say who and don't specify just what it is they agree on.


You didn't say which jobs in government were created by the stim bill. Why don't you go ahead and tell us? Specifically.

Quote:
Any bets on the next election?


I could ask you the same question...

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Aug, 2011 12:28 am
@cicerone imposter,
Quote:
As I've said many times before, health care costs must be controlled through adjustments in age for retirement and when Medicare benefits kick in.
Healthcare costs can not be controlled until we either offer care more efficiently or we provide less care, or both. We have known for 20 years that our system is too expensive, if you will remember HMO's were advertised as the solution. NOT.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Aug, 2011 12:33 am
@hawkeye10,
BTW, hawk, where's your answers to my questions.

Also, this is from politfact.

Quote:
National Republican Congressional Committee

National Republican Congressional Committee

Stimulus bought more than jobs
Says U.S. Rep. Ron Kind’s "stimulus cost taxpayers $278,000 per job."

False


hawk, You have to quit getting your info from the GOP or FOX News; they both lie. Your parroting the same falsehoods doesn't make it become true.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Aug, 2011 12:36 am
@cicerone imposter,
Are you allergic to links? If the cost per job is not nearly $300k then what is the math that gives a different answer?
0 Replies
 
patriciaB
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Aug, 2011 01:54 am
@cicerone imposter,
The debt ceiling fight has many individuals worried about how much the U.S. has to pay. Individuals are pondering whether China - the popular choice when it comes to who owns America - will gain an impossible advantage. Yet as an illuminating report by Business Insider points out, the usual understanding concerning who owns America is wrong. China takes its significant share, but the true answer to the country that owns The United States rests in The United States itself.
patriciaB
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Aug, 2011 02:00 am
@patriciaB,
The fight was lengthy and hard fought, and much remains yet to be sorted out after everything has calmed down. Neither party is supposedly satisfied with the bargain. Debt ceiling deal hammered out at 11th hour as Liberals opposed it out of fear that social programs would be cut. Conservatives waned even more cuts in the debt deal reached. While the chance of a default looks far less likely, the future of the nation’s impeccable credit rating is not nearly as certain. Ratings service Standard & Poor’s has threatened to downgrade the rating, and may do so even if a default is averted.
0 Replies
 
slkshock7
 
  2  
Reply Wed 3 Aug, 2011 05:36 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Cyclo wrote:
However, in a break from your norm, you are 100% correct that a WPA style jobs program should have happened and still should happen. It would have been far more effective for less money.

URL: http://able2know.org/topic/173915-63

Noone talks about the other things promised in the ARRA e.g. Spending 75% by Aug 2010, doubling renewable energy capacity by early 2012, modernizing of federal buildings by Feb, 2011, weatherizing 2M homes by Feb 2011, and computerizing health records. None of these objectives were met or are even a trajectory to be met. Libs have conveniently forgotten about this and instead focused on the sparce jobs that were "created or saved". For some reason conservatives haven't hammered the point home either, but I expect they will when Obama starts running on this particular "achievement" of his Administration.

Only the most partisan lefties still judge the ARRA as a success and they do so by taking a very limited hindsight view. In truth ... the bill was a complete and utter failure. As Cyclo and Hawkeye point out, it would have been a better use of the money to create a WPA jobs program or simply to write a $50K check to each of the 14M currently unemployed.
High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Aug, 2011 06:24 am
@slkshock7,
slkshock7 wrote:

....None of these objectives were met or are even a trajectory to be met. Libs have conveniently forgotten about this and instead focused on the sparce jobs that were "created or saved". For some reason conservatives haven't hammered the point home either, but I expect they will when Obama starts running on this particular "achievement" of his Administration...... it would have been a better use of the money to create a WPA jobs program or simply to write a $50K check to each of the 14M currently unemployed.
[italics added]

If Obama had any economic advisers left - Gene Sperling is a lawyer, David Plouffe is a journalist - he would know that the "stimulus" was a complete waste. But one reason the conservatives haven't focused on that particular trillion-dollar black hole may be that they have the true economic numbers - and they are far, far bleaker than anything bruited about by team Obama. The "cuts" in the latest Act will make no difference to the underlying dynamic modeling of the federal debt; we have already crossed the 50% probability that the economy already tipped into a new recession, meaning that the latest raise debt ceiling (the 4th since Obama took office) may not be enough to pay the Treasury's bills through 2012.

If that forecast turns out to be the correct one, another vote will become necessary just before the election. Messrs Obama, Sperling, Plouffe don't know it but anyone not blinded by partisan propaganda, including many non-economists, does - and that black hole is incomparably more dangerous than the "stimulus", which is probably why you haven't heard that calculation being publicly made yet.

When was the last time you heard the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff go around calling the federal debt "the gravest national security risk we're facing"? Try speeches by current JCS chairman Admiral Mullen. How much is $14.3 trillion expressed in a stack of dollar bills? Here's a graphic (40 seconds video, in German) calculating it: the stack would be about a million miles, enough to reach 4 times the distance from earth to moon:
http://mediacenter.dw-world.de/german/video/#!/207617/USA_1_600_000_Kilometer_Schulden

parados
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Aug, 2011 06:56 am
@roger,
As you just described it maximum revenues would be at 50% of GDP taxation. Why do people argue that 20% of GDP will cause a decrease in revenues?
High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Aug, 2011 07:01 am
@High Seas,
Edit: I've located one liberal Democrat economist agreeing with this 2012 debt ceiling estimate, Prof. James Kwak of Harvard. It's point #3 on his blog post:
http://baselinescenario.com/2011/08/02/a-few-thoughts-on-the-debt-ceiling-deal/
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Aug, 2011 07:27 am
@georgeob1,
Quote:

After that we can talk about the appropriate level of taxation - something well below 20% of GDP.

Military spending - 4.9% of GDP
Medicare - 3.3% of GDP
Social Security 4.8% of GDP
Veteran's benefits - .8% of GDP
Transportation - 6.9% of GDP
adm of Justice - 3.7% of GDP
General govt - 0.17% of GDP
Allowance for Emergencies - 0.13%

That alone adds up to 16.8% of GDP..

Medicaid and other health programs - 2.6%
Income Security - 3.8%

That puts us at 23% and I have eliminated energy, education, Interior, agriculture, all science programs, International affairs and state dept, community development, training programs, community development and grants to states, . Even if we cut Health and Human Services other than SS and Medicare in half we still are at 20% of GDP.

If you want to cut Transportation then you have to cut the revenue source that pays for it since it is dedicated money.

So I am curious george, what specific programs are you cutting to cut spending to a lot less than 20%. While it might sound like wonderful rhetoric, it is horrible math on your part.
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Aug, 2011 07:33 am
@parados,
Here's one

Medicare - 3.3% of GDP

Medicare is supported by a tax rate of 2.9% of salaries to supposedly cover the medicare outflows of all eligible recipients which is 3.3% of GDP.
 

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