26
   

Tick, tick. August 2nd is the Debt Limit Armageddon. Or Not.

 
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Thu 30 Jun, 2011 12:48 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Quote:
The second option is to bypass them, invoke the 14th Amendment, and order the Treasury to keep paying its debts because an extraordinarily reckless faction wants to destroy the American economy in order to save it[self] (and pin the subsequent double-dip recession on Obama).


I vote for option 2
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Thu 30 Jun, 2011 12:55 pm
@JPB,
JPB wrote:

Quote:
The second option is to bypass them, invoke the 14th Amendment, and order the Treasury to keep paying its debts because an extraordinarily reckless faction wants to destroy the American economy in order to save it[self] (and pin the subsequent double-dip recession on Obama).


I vote for option 2


I'm beginning to suspect that this is what they will do no matter what, and dare the Congress to do something about it.

I don't think Republicans will be able to effectively counter his doing so, without admitting that what they really WANT is to force the country into default - which is an untenable position, to say the least.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
H2O MAN
 
  -3  
Reply Thu 30 Jun, 2011 12:55 pm


Bypass Obama and save this republic from him and his democrats.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Thu 30 Jun, 2011 01:03 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

... They have really painted themselves into a corner with their base, and that worries me more than anything else.

If they agree to tax increases, the Tea Party will flip out and work to split their caucus next year, at least forcing them to face primary challenges in places they don't want to and don't have money to defend.

If they DON'T agree to tax increases, they won't be able to pass a Debt Limit increase that has cuts in it. The Dems in the Senate simply won't pass it and Obama won't sign it.

They're stuck in between a rock and a hard place. This is why Cantor 'pulled out' of the negotiations; there's no clear path out for Boehner at this point, he's going to be blamed by some group no matter what.

This is what happens when you resort to using extreme and false rhetoric on a regular basis - your base actually thinks you're serious.

Cycloptichorn


Beohner has said he doesn't have the votes to pass anything that includes any tax increases. He needs to cut the fanatics lose and work with the rest of his party and the dems to get it done. It's time for him to stand up and be a leader first and a politician second.

And I say that as a fiscal conservative.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 30 Jun, 2011 01:05 pm
@JPB,
Quote:
Beohner has said he doesn't have the votes to pass anything that includes any tax increases. He needs to cut the fanatics lose and work with the rest of his party and the dems to get it done. It's time for him to stand up and be a leader first and a politician second.


Agreed, but let's be honest. Such a deal would basically draw all the ire of the Tea Party straight onto him, and would likely see him voted out of office next cycle.

Cycloptichorn
realjohnboy
 
  2  
Reply Thu 30 Jun, 2011 01:15 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
For the record, Beohner is in his 10th term in a largely Republican district. He has typically won with vote totals in the mid-60 to low 70% share of the votes (except for the time when the Dems didn't even put a sacrficial lamb).
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Thu 30 Jun, 2011 01:15 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
I'm not so sure that he wouldn't survive a primary fight. I think the GOP backers would support him and the Tea Party folks need a dose of reality. He may be blamed for losing the majority the next time around the way Nancy was last year but I'm thinking that may happen anyway.
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Thu 30 Jun, 2011 01:16 pm
@realjohnboy,
realjohnboy wrote:

For the record, Beohner is in his 10th term in a largely Republican district. He has typically won with vote totals in the mid-60 to low 70% share of the votes (except for the time when the Dems didn't even put a sacrficial lamb).


He wouldn't lose to a DEM, he'd lose to some crazy Tea Party candidate.

He's already taken lots of heat for getting rooked by Obama on the last budget deal; the one which ended up saving no money at all. Many Conservatives, at least online, felt betrayed and had very harsh words for him. I can't see him not being primaried by a determined group if he agrees to tax increases or fails to get major spending cuts in the debt limit deal.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 30 Jun, 2011 01:17 pm
@JPB,
JPB wrote:

I'm not so sure that he wouldn't survive a primary fight. I think the GOP backers would support him and the Tea Party folks need a dose of reality. He may be blamed for losing the majority the next time around the way Nancy was last year but I'm thinking that may happen anyway.


Well, who can say? But it's easy to see how his personal seat is on the line here, and that puts his back against the wall.

I dunno if the House will flip, but if you look at how unpopular the GOP has become in several swing states, I could see it doing that.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
H2O MAN
 
  -2  
Reply Thu 30 Jun, 2011 01:28 pm


Obama and his democrats are in for a big dose of reality in 2012.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Thu 30 Jun, 2011 01:46 pm
Quote:
*** Obama vs. Congress: There was an obvious reason why President Obama picked a fight with Congress yesterday: As Truman, Clinton, and practically every other modern president has shown, it’s always easy to beat up on it. After all, just 18% approved of Congress’ job in our latest NBC/WSJ poll, and only 10% said they had a high level of confidence in the legislative branch. And per Politico, just 18 bills “have become law through the first half of 2011, and 15 of those named a building after someone, temporarily extended expiring laws or appointed an official to the board of the Smithsonian Institution.” Source


That's disgusting.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Thu 30 Jun, 2011 03:02 pm
Unless something happens in the next 8 hours, the state government of Minnesota will face a shutdown at midnight. The Dem governor ran on a platform on increasing taxes on the wealthy (1st Dem in some 20 years) while the Republican majority (1st in 38 years?) took control on reducing spending.
A judge today decided what are and what are not "essential" government services. She, in my mind, kept the cuts from being too draconian. But it is still going to be painful for thousands of people.
H2O MAN
 
  -2  
Reply Thu 30 Jun, 2011 03:12 pm

I approve of anything that will stop Draconian Democrat Tax Increases.

Obama and his Democrats need to focus on honest to goodness spending cuts just like American citizens continue to do.

This trend to tax and spend needs to end.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 30 Jun, 2011 03:18 pm
@realjohnboy,
A partial list of what will close and remain open during the Minnesota shutdown

http://www.startribune.com/politics/statelocal/124752008.html
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 30 Jun, 2011 10:34 pm
@parados,
parados wrote:
Too many big players out there that are going to hedge their bets before the deadline to allow the market to be blissfully unaware until the end.

Over at the New York Times, Paul Krugman shares my pessimism.

In the New York Times, Paul Krugman wrote:
Many commentators remain complacent about the debt ceiling; the very gravity of the consequences if the ceiling isn’t raised, they say, ensures that in the end politicians will do what must be done. But this complacency misses two important facts about the situation: the extremism of the modern G.O.P., and the urgent need for President Obama to draw a line in the sand against further extortion.

I definitely agree with Krugman on the first count, and cautiously sympathize on the second: The business lobby does overestimate their influence on Tea-Party ideologues. And those ideologues have trapped Obama in a vicious cycle where blackmail gets them results, and the results encourage that they continue blackmailing. To brake this cycle, Obama will need to take desperate actions. Are those measures worse for America's general welfare than continuing the extortion cycle? That's a judgement call I'm glad I don't have to make. That said, my prediction is that Obama will cave in yet again. Why oh why can't Pelosi run for president?
georgeob1
 
  2  
Reply Fri 1 Jul, 2011 02:31 pm
@Thomas,
If Obama is indeed "trapped" it is by himself, and not by the teaparty. For his own reasons he has, from the very beginning of his term, chosen to restrict himself to only the broadest and usually vague outlines of the issues and needed solutions that have arisen on our national scene.

He blandly assured Americans that they can keep their present health care insurance if they like it, all while keeping himself above the fray among progressives in his own party who wanted a single payer system and who ended up compromising on a grotesque hermaprodite that few bothered to even read.

During the current spending/government debt crisis he has chosen to limit himself to only vague political rhetoric without offering any concrete proposals to address the problem. The budget he submitted to the Congress did nothing to address the crisis, and a few weeks later he blandly enviscerated even that in the SOU address with more vague, non specific comments about the need for significan budget cuts and added taxes.

The president and the Democrats are insisting on no cuts in entitlements, and very deceptively implying that the projected growth of our national debt can be controlled with cuts in discretionary spending and new taxes alone. This is a lie. The Republicans are insisting on no new taxes (by the strictest definition) and that the needed control of our debt can be achieved by cuts in entitlements and discretionary spending alone. This is not politically realistic.

The right answer is that all three will be required to some degree.

Our president has shifted from "leading from behind" (as his spokesman put it recently), to not leading at all.
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Fri 1 Jul, 2011 02:47 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:
If Obama is indeed "trapped" it is by himself, and not by the teaparty.

I agree. Hence my longing for a president Pelosi.
slkshock7
 
  0  
Reply Fri 1 Jul, 2011 03:49 pm
@Thomas,
Quote:
I agree. Hence my longing for a president Pelosi.


Pelosi would be a disastrous President...worse than Obama by a long shot. Please...take her to Germany and make her your president, but I shudder to think of her as the US President.

This administration and especially it's economic team have no credibility any longer with me. They've cried "wolf" so many times over the past two and a half years about impending economic disasters and never once been correct that I've lost all faith (not that I had much to begin with).

As for raising the debt ceiling, right now all I see is posturing on the part of both parties. But at least the Republicans have largely gathered behind Ryan's plan for recovery. All I see Obama offering to cure this sucking chest wound is a few bandaids e.g. corporate jet taxation and taxes on the very rich. The one serious plan he himself commissioned (Simpson-Bowles) he himself even more quickly tossed. I am convinced that Obama has no intentions but to kick this problem past the 2012 election cycle. He figures all he must do to win the election is toss out a few tax relatively painless tax increases on a few easy targets and thus demonstrate that he's trying to address the problem. Whether those tax increases he advocates actually do anything to solve the problem is irrelevant to Obama.....

When Obama finally gets serious, I expect the Republicans to get serious....but I think that day is still several weeks away.
parados
 
  1  
Reply Fri 1 Jul, 2011 04:11 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
The president and the Democrats are insisting on no cuts in entitlements,

You keep repeating this george. Do you honestly think it is true? Or are you so taken with propaganda that the truth doesn't matter?

Quote:
President Obama yesterday outlined measures to trim spending on federal health programs for the elderly and the poor by an additional $313 billion over the next decade,


Quote:
14 April 2011

President Barack Obama outlined plans Wednesday for slashing $4 trillion from the federal budget deficit over the next 12 years, the bulk of it by cutting domestic social spending, particularly in the area of health care.


Quote:
The president said his cuts to Medicare should save $5 billion by 2025.


Quote:
President Obama laid out a budget proposal Wednesday that included cuts of nearly $500 billion to the Medicare and Medicaid programs over the next 12 years,
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Fri 1 Jul, 2011 04:46 pm
@slkshock7,
On Wednesday, I wrote about what I see as a possible solution to the debt ceiling situation. "Cut, Cap and Bal." was a phrase being tossed out by some Repubs.
Cut spending, Cap the deficit at a % of GDP and work towards a constitutional amendment to Balance future budgets.
The sentiment here seemed to be that the Dems, Repubs and Tea Party leaders have painted themselves into different corners of a room.
I certainly never meant that I support the ideas. What I meant to say was that this kind of rhetoric might get us over the debt ceiling crisis.
I was reading today an article by Jonathon Adler at Bloomberg. There is a guy named David Walker. He was comptroller general under both Bush and Obama. He, no longer in government, is quietly serving as the invisible go between between the various players, trying to de-link the debt issue from all of the other stuff.
His proposals, which seem to be gaining some traction, include some immediate Cuts a the 2012-2013 fiscal year budget (beginning in Oct, 2011) - which all parties have probably agreed to be low hanging fruit. That would be followed by another $100Bn or so in cuts that parties have agreed to in principle but not in detail, along with a pledge to keep the 2o12-13 and beyond budgets at a % of GDP.
Finally, Walker is working on a "fail-safe" notion. If the deficit climbs over the % of GDP, there will be automatic triggers to cut spending and there would also be "revenue surcharges." That is a delightful euphemism for tax increases.
I said before that there is a dim light bulb going off in the heads of politicians that this debt ceiling limit thing is kind of like running with scissors.
The White House, today, upped the ante a bit by saying that the deadline is not August 2nd but more like July 22nd due to some logistical stuff. The House was scheduled to be on vacation that week and a Repub plan to introduce a balanced budget amendment to the constitution was scheduled for later that same week.
 

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