Tick, tick. August 2nd is the Debt Limit Armageddon. Or Not.

It would definitely cause a constitutional crisis heading into next year's election. With the SC having the makeup it currently does, it isn't at all clear that Obama would win such an argument; and it would play right into the hands of Republicans for him to do so, who would argue that he's a tyrant, who ignores the law AND the recommendations of his own treasury.

The politics of your recommendation suck.

Cycloptichorn

It's been cracking for some time and the Freshman 90 were elected on the basis of a tremendous frustration with Washington. Unfortunately, they aren't helping matters any.

You've made a number of posts today that take the position that you know what's in Obama's head and his heart. I don't have much faith in your crystal ball.

The system is broken.

Some of it are owned by the federal reserves (I believe the biggest balance), some state and local governments, funds, corporations, and private citizens, and there are foreign investments in those equities that are not tracked by country.

The 'freshman 90' are needed for nothing at all. Boehner could and can pass a debt increase limit without them in a heartbeat - by getting the support of the Dems to do so. It would hardly be the first time in history that such a thing has happened.

...But it would be reckless and ******* stupid, exactly as the Republicans forcing a crisis is reckless and stupid. I cannot recommend he take such an action; I would condemn such an action by him, even though in my heart I would agree with him. Just as I condemn Republicans acting so recklessly.

This conversation is all immaterial, as they will end up doing a deal in the end, and everything will lurch onward just a little farther.

Post-ABC poll: GOP too dug in on debt talks; public fears default consequences
By Dan Balz and Jon Cohen, Published: July 19

Majorities of Americans see both President Obama and congressional Republicans as not willing enough to compromise in their budget negotiations, but the public views the GOP leaders as particularly intransigent, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

There is also growing dissatisfaction among Republicans with the hard-line stance of their congressional representatives: Fifty-eight percent say their leaders are not doing enough to strike a deal, up from 42 percent in March.

While Republicans in Congress have remained united in their opposition to any tax increases, the poll finds GOP majorities favoring some of the specific changes advocated by the president, including higher income tax rates for the wealthiest Americans.

There is also broad dissatisfaction with Obama’s unwillingness to reach across the aisle: Nearly six in 10 of those polled say the president has not been open enough to compromise. Among independents, 79 percent say Republicans aren’t willing enough to make a deal, while 62 percent say the same of Obama.

Republicans may also be losing the war of perception about who stands with whom in the debates over the deficit and the economy. A majority view the president as more committed to protecting the interests of the middle class and small businesses, while large majorities see Republicans as defending the economic interests of big corporations and Wall Street financial institutions.

If there were an economic breakdown, neither side would escape blame. Forty-two percent say they would mostly hold the GOP responsible, and 36 percent say Obama would be at fault. But Republicans in Congress are also under increasing pressure from their own partisans.

Although some Republican lawmakers have cast doubt on the seriousness of the Aug. 2 deadline, majorities across party lines in the poll predict dire economic consequences if the two sides fail to extend the government’s borrowing power and a default results.

The sputtering negotiations and rhetorical standoffs have further damaged the image of Washington in the eyes of the public. Fully 80 percent are now “dissatisfied” or “angry” about the way the federal government is working, rising 11 percentage points from June to the highest level in polls going back to the early 1990s. The sharp increase in dissatisfaction with the government coincides with the fractious deficit negotiations and a clear hardening along party lines in Congress.

In a sign of the potential political consequences of the public’s discontent, 63 percent of all Americans say they are inclined to look around for new representatives in the 2012 elections, the highest on record in Post-ABC polls.

Hope, but also concern

Overall, a 54 percent majority say the president and Congress are likely to reach an agreement to raise the debt ceiling by the August deadline. But there is clear concern that neither side is willing to budge.

More than three-quarters of Americans say the Republican leadership is too averse to compromise on the deficit. Even among Republicans, 58 percent see the GOP as too resistant to a deal, up from 42 percent in March.

In the new poll, fully 50 percent of conservative Republicans and “strong” tea party supporters say the GOP leadership is too unwilling to make a deal on the deficit. But in other areas, the views of GOP leaders are more in sync with those of strong tea party supporters than those of the rest of the party faithful. That is the case on raising taxes on the wealthy, for example, where opposition from strong tea party supporters is 20 percentage points higher than among all Republicans.

Democrats, on the other hand, appear worried that Obama is too prepared to give in to Republicans. Exactly half of all Democrats say the president is “too willing” to compromise.

Most Democrats oppose increasing the age for Medicare eligibility and changing how Social Security benefits are calculated, two major changes that Obama has suggested could be part of a “grand bargain” aimed at overcoming the debt-limit impasse.

Majorities of Democrats and Republicans in the poll agree on other items considered for a potential deal — raising taxes on high-wage earners and on oil and gas companies.

Republicans split on taxes

GOP leaders have said repeatedly that they oppose the inclusion of any new taxes in an agreement, in part because their rank and file is strongly resistant to them. But the Post-ABC News poll shows a Republican Party clearly divided on that question.

Overall, more than six in 10 Americans say a plan to reduce the deficit should include a combination of spending cuts and new taxes, rather than exclusively one or the other. Big majorities of Democrats and independents and nearly half of all Republicans support the mixed approach.

But the GOP argument that spending cuts create jobs has advanced a bit since March. Nearly half of all Americans say big cuts in federal spending would spur new jobs, a six-point increase. But a similar 44 percent see such cuts as more apt to slice the number of jobs.

Although Obama appears to be on more solid ground than Republicans in terms of public opinion on these issues, he has clear political vulnerabilities. His overall approval rating remains below the 50 percent mark and, at 47 percent, is one point from a career low in Post-ABC polling.

Fifty-seven percent of all Americans disapprove of the way the president is handling the economy, and 60 percent give him negative marks on the deficit. Those who “strongly disapprove” of how he is dealing with each of these issues outnumber those who either “strongly” or “somewhat” approve.

But the GOP is doing worse in these areas: Sixty-seven percent of Americans disapprove of the way congressional Republicans are handling the economy, and 68 percent give them low marks when it comes to the deficit.

Who cares more?

On other measures, the president comes out ahead of Republicans: By 47 percent to 37 percent, Americans say Obama cares more about protecting their own families’ economic interests than do the Republicans. By an almost identical margin, the president is seen as caring more about the economic interests of small businesses, which Republicans long have championed as part of their core coalition.

More than eight in 10 — including 80 percent of Republicans — say there would be serious harm to the U.S. economy if the government could not continue to borrow money to fund its operations and pay its debts after Aug. 2.

Nearly as many — more than three-quarters — say the financial reputation of the United States would be severely undermined if the government’s borrowing power dried up. Six in 10 say such an event would deeply hurt their own financial situations.

Polling manager Peyton M. Craighill and polling analyst Scott Clement contributed to this report.

By NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Brooke Brower

*** Disconnect: Yesterday provided us with a clear example of the current disconnect between President Obama and the Senate vs. House Republicans and the Tea Party. In the Senate, we saw dozens of Democratic and Republican senators tripping over themselves to embrace the bipartisan Gang of Six deficit-reduction proposal, which Obama also praised. But in the House, Republicans passed their symbolic "Cut, Cap, and Balance" measure through a mostly party-line vote. And to top it off, freshman Tea Party Rep. Allen West (R-FL) fired off a mean-spirited email to DNC Chair and Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL), after she suggested that West’s support for “Cut, Cap, and Balance” would increase costs for Medicare recipients. “You are the most vile, unprofessional ,and despicable member of the US House of Representatives,” West wrote. “You have proven repeatedly that you are not a Lady.”

*** The Tea Party vs. everyone else: This disconnect is also evident in our brand-new NBC/WSJ poll. When provided arguments from both sides on whether or not to raise the debt ceiling, 49% support increasing it -- including 66% of Democrats, 50% of independents, and even 50% of non-Tea Party Republicans. Meanwhile, 43% oppose raising the debt ceiling -- including 62% of Tea Party supporters. Moreover, 58% say they favor Obama’s mixed approach to reduce the deficit (through spending cuts, tax increases, and changes to entitlements), including 88% of Democrats and 54% of indies. On the other hand, 36% back the House Republican plan (spending cuts only), including 70% of Tea Party supporters (!!!). House Republican leaders now find themselves caught between their Tea Party base and independents. In 2010, these groups were largely on the same page. That’s not true anymore.

*** The White House is winning the PR battle: The poll also shows that Obama is clearly winning a legislative argument -- in terms of public opinion -- for the first time in his presidency. In addition to having a 22-point lead on his deficit proposal vs. the House GOP’s, a plurality in the poll (by a 38%-31% margin) says the debt ceiling should be raised, which is a sharp reversal from June when a plurality (39%-28%) opposed the move. When told that failing to raise the debt ceiling could jeopardize payments to Social Security recipient and military personnel, 49% support increasing it. And 43% oppose it when told that an increase would make it harder to reduce the deficit. “You are watching opinion shift as people are learning more about the debate,” says NBC/WSJ co-pollster Bill McInturff (R). By the way, one smart Republican said to one of us yesterday: If only his party hadn't gotten themselves trapped by the debt ceiling, they MIGHT have a better shot at winning the LARGER argument.

With every day that goes by, the public turns further against the GOP on the debt limit issue.

What's a 'tax expenditure?"
Thanks.

H2O MAN wrote:

What's a 'tax expenditure?"
Thanks.

H2O:
"Tax expenditures" equate to money lost to the government, as she noted due to, amongst other things, tax laws allowing for deductions, exemptions, exclusions, deferred tax liability and preferential tax rates.

Congress Continues Debate Over Whether Or Not Nation Should Be Economically Ruined

WASHINGTON—Members of the U.S. Congress reported Wednesday they were continuing to carefully debate the issue of whether or not they should allow the country to descend into a roiling economic meltdown of historically dire proportions. "It is a question that, I think, is worthy of serious consideration: Should we take steps to avoid a crippling, decades-long depression that would lead to disastrous consequences on a worldwide scale? Or should we not do that?" asked House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA), adding that arguments could be made for both sides, and that the debate over ensuring America’s financial solvency versus allowing the nation to default on its debt—which would torpedo stock markets, cause mortgage and interests rates to skyrocket, and decimate the value of the U.S. dollar—is “certainly a conversation worth having.” "Obviously, we don't want to rush to consensus on whether it is or isn't a good idea to save the American economy and all our respective livelihoods from certain peril until we've examined this thorny dilemma from every angle. And if we’re still discussing this matter on Aug. 2, well, then, so be it.” At press time, President Obama said he personally believed the country should not be economically ruined.