MichaelAllen wrote:Furthermore, I've been putting great thought into my replies on this thread. I haven't just been throwing them together.
I don't doubt it and I didn't mean to suggest you had.
MichaelAllen wrote:One strong point I made that people overlooked is the fact of what statements people will believe and what they won't believe. [..] While Czech intelligence gets downplayed and when possibly coerced into denying a link, we'll believe that statement, not the one they made prior. We believe what we want to believe.
Well, basically, Michael, its up to those who want to wage a war to provide convincing proof on why to do so. If you would like the US to wage war against, say, Paraguay, you'd better come up with some convincing argument on what danger it poses to us, and with some corroborated proof on your allegation. It's not up to us to prove that we
shouldn't wage war against Paraguay - you want the war, you'd better have some damn good reason. And yes, that makes our job a little easier than yours - all
we get to do is shoot stuff down, whereas you have to do all the digging. But then it's not
we who are proposing to send hundreds of men to their death in our name.
Bush laid out very clearly what danger he thought Iraq posed to us / the US. It had WMD. It might well give those WMD to terrorists. And since 9/11, we can't take such risks anymore - we can't wait until they attack us in order to counterattack legally, we have to act pre-emptively. Plus: we have to do it right now, straight away, there's no time for the further inspections half of our allies insist on: the threat is acute.
Now to argue such a case - that Iraq poses an immediate threat, too acute to allow for further diplomatic niceties - you need the proof for it. Not suspicions, not plausibilities, not, "well, the Czechs first said there was a link, and then that there wasn't, one never can know, better act now" (and I'm going to use the Czechs in this post as a pars pro toto for all such unconfirmed, later retracted allegations). War is too serious a thing to consider on mere suspicions and semi-trustworthy accusations. "Czech intelligence might possibly have been coerced into denying a link" - Pakistan might own flying pigs. This is all
utter speculation. We can't start going to war on hunches. Going to war shouldn't
be about what we "believe" - this is a bottom line - it should be about what we
know. When we would start wars because all kinds of conflicting evidence suggests there might well be something going on there - or not - there'd be an awful lot of countries to attack. We wisely do not.
You argue that we are more likely to buy into the denials than into the affirmations when it comes to Saddam/Osama links, but the thing is - what we dont buy into is a case thats riddled
with such ambiguities and contradictions - not when its war we're talking about, thousands of deaths, ruptured world relations, possible dangerous backlashes around the Arab world. (The latter didnt materialise in the end (yet), the former did). With the Weekly Standard's raw data suggesting there is a link, but others showing that half of the data is provably erroneous, and the government saying neither that it is, nor that it isnt true, there is, in the end,
just ambiguities and contradictions. You may say that that should be enough to at least be alarmed and want to know more - and you'd be right. But to say that this jumble of ambiguities and contradictions - the Czechs say yes, the Czechs say no - is actual legitimate grounds for WAR ... is irresponsible.
You say that we're not willing to believe the Czech suggestion of a link (still using the Czech thing as a pars pro toto here), but we're all too willing to believe its denial of the link later on. Well, first, there's a duh-factor included there.
Of course one believes the retraction of a statement rather than the original statement itself, once it
is retracted - it came last. If the local newspaper writes that Micheal Allen is a pedophile, and later writes that, no, they mixed up the names, sorry, mistake, then I'm going to believe the retraction, not the original thing, obviously - it's an
admission of error, after all. Likewise, if Bush first says there is a link, and later admits that "there is no proof of a link", then I assume that what he said last more reflects the most recent state of intelligence. I.e., he did believe it, but - they couldnt find anything.
Secondly, it's not that any one of these episodes of the reported/alleged/retracted cycle suddenly changes everything around, however worth it is to try confirm or debunk it. You bring up question marks. We're saying one shouldnt go to war on question marks. That's where we're talking past each other. Atta was not in Prague, but Al-Qaeda guy X once had an operation in Baghdad, but the Telegraph's scoop on the Iraqi Qaeda training camp was a hoax, et cetera, ad infinitum --
as long as there is no officially confirmed proof that Iraq did indeed pose an immediate threat to the West, through the dangerous weapons it supposedly had and could supposedly any moment give to Al-Qaeda -
there is no case for a supposedly "defensive" war. Period. No amount of ambiguities and contradictions is going to make that case, however interesting they are to speculate about - they in fact make the case to
not go to war. If the government doesn't come out officially with confirmed proof of actual, current co-operation between Saddam and Al-Qaeda that put our lives at risk, there was no such case. It hasn't. I think that says something.