Those supporting Bush should send their sons and daughters, fathers and mothers, and their other loved ones. They all think this is all "worth it."
Southeast Asia has emerged as an important front on the war on terror. The regional al-Qaeda affiliate Jemaah Islamiya has launched two major terrorist attacks since October 2002, and, despite a significant number of arrests, retains the capability for more devastating strikes in the future. There has been tremendous concern that these future attacks could be maritime based. Southeast Asia straddles some of the most critical maritime trade routes in the world, including the Straits of Malacca. Global shipping remains highly vulnerable. Asia owns 40 percent of all cargo ships, is home to some of the largest container ports, and over 25 percent of the world's cargo and 50 percent of the world's oil goes through the Straits of Malacca. Any maritime attack there would have a profound impact on the global economy. Moreover, maritime security across the region is appalling. The International Maritime Bureau reported that more than 80 percent of the world's pirate attacks take place in Southeast Asian waters annually, which leads one to ask: if pirates can act with such impunity, what is stopping terrorists?
Attacks on U.S. Naval Vessels
Al-Qaeda has always maintained an interest in maritime terrorism. While the planned 1999 attack on the USS Sullivans failed, the attack on the USS Cole succeeded in 2000, leaving 17 sailors dead and one of the most advanced naval vessels almost sunk. The head of al-Qaeda's naval operations, Abdul Rahim Mohammed Hussein al-Nashiri was captured in Yemen in November 2002 en route to Southeast Asia. The architect of the USS Cole and the MT Limburg bombings, al-Nashiri had already dispatched maritime suicide terror squads to Morocco to target U.S. naval vessels passing through the Straits of Gibraltar.
There is evidence of similar plots in Southeast Asia. Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) cells arrested in Singapore between December and January 2002 had marked charts of the Sembawang wharf, where U.S. naval vessels docked, in apparent preparation for a Cole-styled attack. And video footage taken by JI operatives of the Yishun MRT subway station, used by U.S. personnel to travel to the naval facility there, was found in the rubble of Mohammed Atef's house in Kabul. The approximately 120 annual port visits by U.S. naval vessels in Singapore is only expected to increase with the soon-to-be-completed construction of an aircraft carrier docking facility.
At a January 2000 meeting in Kuala Lumpur, al-Qaeda operatives not only prepared for the September 11th attacks, but also reviewed the failed USS Sullivans operation and planned the attack on the USS Cole. At the time, Khallad bin Attash suggested planning a similar attack on U.S. naval vessels at Port Klang, Malaysia. According to the interrogation of a senior al-Qaeda operative, Omar al Faruq, a Somali member active in Indonesia (named Ghalib) was plotting to attack U.S. naval vessels in the crowded and chaotic port of Surabaya, but was apparently unable to recruit enough personnel. Clearly the intent to target U.S. naval vessels exists, only the operational space to plan and execute such an attack seems lacking.
Maritime Terrorism
Whereas attacking a U.S. naval vessel is currently beyond the reach of al-Qaeda and JI operatives, an attack on commercial vessels is not. Al-Nishiri was found with a 180-page dossier listing maritime targets of opportunity. This information fits with the overall al-Qaeda strategy laid out in an October 2002 broadcast in which Ayman al Zawahiri warned that al-Qaeda "would target the nodes of your [the West's] economy." Any attack on commercial shipping would have a devastating impact on the world's economy. An attack in the congested Straits of Malacca would slow traffic through that important sea lane. The Strait, which is 600 miles long but only 1.5 miles wide at its narrowest, has more than 50,000 large ships traveling through it annually. In 2002, between 40-50 oil tankers (carrying approximately 10 million barrels of oil) and 10-12 liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers sailed in the Straits each day. These numbers are set to increase greatly as Asian countries, especially China, continue their current rates of economic growth and energy imports surge. As after the October 2002 attack in Yemen, any attack would lead to a spike in maritime insurance rates as well as economic shutdowns, with manufacturers depending more on just-in-time deliveries than before.
As al-Qaeda stated on October 13, 2002, "If a boat that did not cost $1000 managed to devastate an oil tanker of that magnitude, imagine the extent of the danger that threatens the West's commercial lifeline which is petroleum." Half the world's oil and much of its LNG passes through the Straits of Malacca, creating an inviting target in an area already riddled with piracy and poorly policed by Indonesia's navy. The appalling condition of the Indonesian navy and lack of concern for maritime terrorism has created conditions where terrorists could act with near impunity.
Another scenario that keeps Singaporean security officials awake at night is the hijacking of a vessel, either a LNG or petro-chemical tanker (something carrying chlorine or ammonium nitrate, for example) and its detonation in Singapore harbor. Alarmingly, in late 2003, there were three pirate attacks on chemical vessels. Singaporean authorities have provided naval escorts to some ships in their limited territorial waters, but there is little more they can do.
Southeast Asian pirates have boarded vessels to rob them, hijacked them, and/or bring them to port in order to steal their cargo and repaint them. This raises two questions: First, do terrorists have the capability to hijack ships and sail them into ports? Second, are there repainted vessels, so-called phantom ships, available on the black market for terrorist organizations to purchase and load with explosives?
Container and Port Security
Some 230 million containers move through the world's ports each year, and some 90 percent of world's general cargo is in containers. Yet, less than 1 percent of containers are screened annually worldwide. At any given time there are 800 ships and some 150,000 containers in Singapore alone. The ability to inspect a mere fraction of these ships or containers is negligible, even in modern, efficient and trade dependent hubs such as Singapore. Fierce competition between ports and intense pressure to lower costs makes increasing security difficult.
Singapore is one of 20 foreign ports now part of the U.S.-led Container Security Initiative (CSI), designed to use intelligence and data bases to identify potentially dangerous or suspicious cargo, increase sensors on containers, and develop secure containers. Importantly, the screening will be done over-seas before the cargo reaches U.S. ports. Singapore hopes that the U.S. will eventually require all imported cargo to be screened over-seas, thereby giving it a competitive advantage over Malaysia, which has resisted the CSI.
The fact that containers would be the most efficient and effective means to get a weapon of mass destruction (WMD) or dirty bomb into the United States drives the CSI. While there is no evidence that al-Qaeda has WMDs, there is ample evidence of their interest in acquiring them. They have tested poisons and chemical gases, and al-Qaeda's anthrax production was to be based in Malaysia before its fortuitous shut down.
Finally, attention should be devoted to terrorist recruitment among seafarers. The Philippines and Indonesia are the two largest suppliers of the roughly 1.2 million seafarers in the world. Woeful regulation over international mariners given liberal landing and travel rights should remain a concern.
Flags of Convenience
The intelligence community has identified some 15 cargo ships around the world believed to be owned or controlled by al-Qaeda. However, these vessels, owned by a myriad of shell companies, are constantly renamed and re-registered. Used to move men, materiel and generate revenue through legitimate cargo forwarding and illegitimate practices such as drug, people and gun smuggling, these vessels may well be used as weapons in a terrorist attack.
Cambodia has emerged as the flag of convenience registry of choice, with several cargo vessels believed to have belonged to al-Qaeda in the past registered there. The So San, intercepted by Spanish forces while trying to covertly deliver North Korean missiles to Yemen in 2002, also came from Cambodia.
The Cambodian Registrar, run under license by a shadowy private company in Singapore since 1995, was under intense scrutiny following a series of scandals regarding several of its 1,600 ships. Under U.S., European and Korean pressure, the Cambodian government withdrew the license in August 2002, giving control to another foreign contractor.
Maritime terrorism makes up part of al-Qaeda's arsenal and a core part of its long-term strategy. Since 9/11, al-Qaeda's modus operendi has been to encourage its affiliated groups to attack economic targets. Moreover, every attack since 9/11, excluding Madrid, has transpired in moderate Muslim countries allied with the United States. Indonesia and Malaysia clearly fit the bill: important, trade dependent, exporters of oil and natural gas, straddling one of the most important maritime chokepoints in the world.
Zachary Abuza is one of the leading scholars on Terrorism in Southeast Asia. He is currently Director of the East Asian Studies Program and Assistant Professor for Political Science and International Relations at Simmons College.
Now is not the time for the United States to withdraw from
Iraq.
Stung by the damage done by revelations that American personnel abused
detainees in Iraq and Afghanistan, President Bush spoke on Arab
television and was unequivocal: "People in Iraq must understand that I
view those practices as abhorrent." He pledged to punish the soldiers
involved.
Across the Middle East, officials condemned the United States. Iranian
Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi, for example, said the incident was
proof that the United States had a "systematic plan to torture Iraqis,
to kill them, to rape them." Syria's official daily, Ath-Thawra, called
the abuse "proof" that torture is widespread in Iraq. Hundreds of Iraqis
protested in front of Abu Ghraib prison, demanding the release of all
prisoners. In Iran, Syria and Egypt, newspapers called for American
withdrawal from Iraq.
But there could be nothing worse than a U.S. pullout.
Professors and pundits may say that the sky has fallen, but Iraqis have
a broader perspective. They may forgive the actions of a few soldiers.
While the American media focus on car bombs and prison abuse, in the
year since liberation, Iraqis have also watched thousands of soldiers
and contractors repair schools, repave roads and revitalize the
electrical grid.
There's no doubt that the prison photos are devastating. But they are
not a deathblow to Mr. Bush's call for a fundamental transformation of
the Middle East. Iraqis respect Mr. Bush for his willingness to address
them. The president has juxtaposed himself with every ruler in the Arab
world.
Iraqis often acknowledge that from Jordan to Morocco, kings and
presidents remained silent in the face of Saddam Hussein's crimes. Even
U.N. special envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, while undersecretary-general of the
Arab League, said nothing as Mr. Hussein slaughtered Kurds and Arabs
alike.
Iraqis ask where Arab leaders were when Mr. Hussein's Baath Party raped
women, maimed men and filled mass graves. "Officials of the former
regime did not even try to apologize. Bush's attempt to repair the
damage is a good thing," a Baghdad teacher told the Associated Press on
Wednesday.
Democracies acknowledge mistakes and correct them. Dictatorships cover
them up. The way forward lies in American transparency.
As the United States brings the perpetrators to justice, Mr. Bush should
challenge regional regimes to do the same. For example, he should demand
that Sudanese President Omar Hassan Ahmed el-Bashir bring to justice
those soldiers who, according to Human Rights Watch, in recent weeks
have massacred blacks and committed mass rape and ethnic cleansing in
Sudan's Darfur province.
Even as Arabic channels condemn the United States, Mr. Bush should
demand they investigate the plight of Fathi Eljahmi, a Libyan democracy
advocate. Two days after U.S. Assistant Secretary of State William J.
Burns visited Libyan strongman Muammar el Kadafi, Libyan security
arrested Mr. Eljahmi. Both the White House and the Arabic media remain
silent despite reports that Libyan security forces have tortured the
dissident.
Mr. Bush should also demand that the Arab media investigate the plight
of Aktham Naisse. Syrian police detained Mr. Naisse on April 14 for
circulating a petition calling for democracy. In his court appearance
eight days later, witnesses said Mr. Naisse's hand and leg were broken.
Nor has the Arab League demanded an investigation into the Syrian
regime's detention and torture of dozens of Syrian Kurds, arrested after
the last pro-democracy demonstrations in March.
Iran should back its rhetoric with substance. Mr. Bush should hold Iran
accountable for its treatment of 75-year-old journalist Siamak Pourzand.
Imprisoned for more than a year after demanding democracy, Mr. Pourzand
was tortured by Iranian police and forced to confess to imaginary crimes
on state television. Denied medical care, his weight dropped to 121
pounds. Last month, he suffered a heart attack. He is fortunate, though.
Iranian security arrested photojournalist Zahra Kazemi on June 23.
Beaten in custody, she fell into a coma and died. The Iranian government
refused to make her body available for autopsy. No one has been
prosecuted for her murder.
A small number of soldiers and contractors have soiled the reputation of
thousands of American servicemen and women. The Coalition Provisional
Authority has freed 24 million Iraqis from a terrible dictatorship;
despite our mistakes, Iraqis will not forget that.
We should not abandon Iraq because of the actions of a few individuals.
Nor should we abandon the oppressed throughout the Middle East. It is
that that would be most unforgivable.
McTag what you say must be true since a third of our population is already in our own prisons.
U.S. Prison Population Tops 2 Million
From Robert Longley,
Your Guide to U.S. Gov Info/Resources.
1 in 142 US residents now in prison
America's prison population topped 2 million inmates for the first time in history on June 30, 2002 according to a new report from the Justice Department’s Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS).
The 50 states, the District of Columbia and the federal government held 1,355,748 prisoners (two-thirds of the total incarcerated population), and local municipal and county jails held 665,475 inmates. [total incarcerated = 1,355,748 + 665,475 =2,021,223; total US population = 2,021,223 x 142 = 287,013,666]
By midyear 2002, America's jails held 1 in every 142 U.S. residents. Males were incarcerated at the rate of 1,309 inmates per 100,000 U.S. men, while the female incarceration rate was 113 per 100,000 women residents.
Of the 1,200,203 state prisoners [59.4% = 1,200,203/2,021,223], 3,055 were younger than 18 years old.
Sponsored Links
Texas Inmate Directory
Texas Prison Directory Texas Prison Information
www.lawyertexasparole.com
Texas Parole
Experienced Legal Counsel Release and Revocation Hearings
www.parolehelp.com
In addition, adult jails held 7,248 inmates under 18.
Federal, state and local prisons see increases
During the 12-month period ending last June 30, the local jail population increased by 34,235 inmates, the largest increase (5.4 percent) since 1997. State prisons added 12,440 inmates (a 1 percent increase) and the federal prison system grew by 8,042 (5.7 percent).
More than 40 percent of the total increase in the number of people incarcerated during the period was accounted for by the growth in the federal prison population. During the year the responsibility for housing sentenced District of Columbia felons was transferred to the federal system and completed on December 31, 2001. This accounted for one-quarter of the federal increase between midyear 2001 and midyear 2002 and contributed to making the federal system the largest prison jurisdiction in the nation.
State prison populations
Twenty states experienced an inmate population increase of 5 percent or more during the 12 months ending June 30, 2002, led by Rhode Island (up 17.4 percent) and New Mexico (11.1 percent). Nine states, including several large states, experienced prison population declines.
Illinois had the largest percentage decrease (down 5.5 percent), followed by Texas (down 3.9 percent), New York (down 2.9 percent), Delaware (down 2.3 percent) and California (down 2.2 percent).
Non-citizen prison population also growing
As of last June 30, state and federal correctional authorities held 88,776 non-citizens, a 1 percent increase from the 87,917 held a year earlier. Sixty-two percent were held in state prisons and 38 percent in federal institutions.
Private prison population drops
Privately operated prisons held 86,626 inmates last June 30, down 6.1 percent from the number held on December 31, 2001. Texas reported the largest decline, from 16,331 to 10,764 prisoners.
More new inmates than new prison beds
For the first time since midyear 1997 the number of additional jail inmates grew faster than the number of new jail beds during the 12 months preceding June 30, 2002. Nonetheless, at midyear 2002 local jails were operating at 7 percent below their officially rated capacities. At the end of 2001, the most recent period for which the data are available, state prisons were operating from 1 to 16 percent above capacity, and federal prisons were at 31 percent above capacity.
Dear World Movement Participant:
I am pleased to attach for your information the inaugural issue of
Democracy Digest, the
new weekly bulletin of the Transatlantic Democracy Network. This
network, launched at
the Third Assembly of the World Movement for Democracy in Durban, South
Africa, in
February, seeks to promote dialogue on democratization and related
issues of interest to
those both within and beyond the transatlantic democracy-promotion
community.
Democracy Digest will provide analysis and information to further
dialogue and
collaboration. Democratic reform and development in the greater Middle
East will be an
issue of particular concern and forms the principal theme of this first
issue, which appears
below in plain text, but is also attached in the original HTML format.
Democracy Digest is produced by Freedom House in cooperation with other
democracy-
promotion institutions, think tanks, and civil society organizations on
both sides of the
Atlantic. Groups which have so far agreed to cooperate with the
initiative include the
Aspen Institute Berlin; the Center for Study of Islam and Democracy;
FAES Fundacion
(Spain); the Helsinki Citizens' Assembly (Turkey); the Political Studies
Institute at the
Catholic University of Portugal; People in Need (Czech Republic); and
the Polish
Helsinki Foundation on Human Rights. The Digest welcomes cooperation
from
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I hope you find Democracy Digest of interest and that it will prove
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Please consider subscribing, free of charge, and please share this
inaugural issue with
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very much.
Sincerely,
Art Kaufman
Project Manager
World Movement for Democracy
Inaugural Issue: May 6, 2004, Volume 1, Number 1
DEMOCRACY DIGEST
The Weekly Bulletin of the Transatlantic Democracy Network
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<<DemDigestMay04Final.htm>>
Dear World Movement Participant:
ISSUES
* Middle East Reform Initiative Hits Rocky Road--But Some See Long-Term
Progress
The reform and democratization of the Greater Middle East remains high
on the
international agenda in advance of the G-8, EU-US and NATO summits in
June.
According to documents obtained by Democracy Digest from independent
sources, the
US Administration is now proposing five key inititiatives for adoption
at the G-8 summit:
a multilateral agency to coordinate democracy assistance; a democracy
foundation to
fund NGOs; a literacy program; micro-finance for small enterprises; and
a "forum for the
future" to promote "long-term partnership" between the G-8 and Arab
countries and
"institutionalize" dialogue on reforms.
One document being circulated - "Notional Elements of a Plan of Support
for Reform"-
carefully correlates proposals with recommendations for reform
originating within the
region, citing the recent Alexandria and Sana'a declarations in
particular. The proposals
for a democracy assistance group and a democracy foundation cite the
German
Stiftungen, the UK's Westminster Foundation and the US-based National
Endowment for
Democracy as possible models. These changes respond to criticisms made
of an earlier
US draft.
The US government's initial proposal --the Greater Middle East
Initiative--was an attempt
to consult on reform strategies with the European Union. Although meant
as a working
paper for G-8 "sherpas" to discuss in advance of the summit, it was
leaked to Al-Hayat
newspaper, and quickly characterized as an attempt to impose a
preconceived model of
reform on the region. Among the most vociferous critics was Egypt's
President Hosni
Mubarak, who toured Arab and European capitals to denounce the US
initiative.
* The Alexandria Statement, 2004--
www.al-bab.com/arab/docs/reform/alex2004.htm
* Sana'a Declaration, 2004--
www.al-bab.com/arab/docs/reform/sanaa2004.htm
* Westminster Foundation -- http://www.wfd.org/
* National Endowment for Democracy - www.ned.org
* The Greater Middle East Initiative --
http://english.daralhayat.com/Spec/02-
2004/Article-20040213-ac40bdaf-c0a8-01ed-004e-5e7ac897d678/story.html
* US-EU: Shared Aims, Varying Approaches
Irish Foreign Minister Brian Cowen, acting on behalf of the Irish
Presidency of the
European Union, visited the Middle East early last month to present a
more modulated
explanation of the EU's approach. The EU strategy stresses
"differentiation and the
requirements of individual countries in the region," he noted,
explicitly rejecting "a one
size fits all approach." Signficantly, it also commits the EU to
diverting some of its
annual â'¬3bn ($3.65bn) in regional grants and loans to initiatives
promoting human rights,
rule of law and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in the region.
Europeans also criticised the original US proposal. EU external
relations chief Chris
Patten is among the more outspoken European critics of the plan,
suggesting that "the
objectives appeared to have been set without any consultation process
with the region,"
and questioning whether the US would back its proposals with significant
funds.
US-EU differences over style and substance for advancing reform in the
Middle East
have generated much comment and activity. Some Europeans have questioned
whether
the EU's "quiet engagement" brings adequate results. Richard Youngs, a
fellow with the
EU research project on European security and defense policy, and
coordinator of the
Civility Programme on Middle East Reform at the Foreign Policy Centre in
London,
contends that Europe has been "galvanized by intensified American
activity even as it
rails against it." He characterizes EU democracy promotion as "a panoply
of low-key
initiatives that have failed to produce significant results." Some of
Youngs's
recommendations overlap with those of the Centre for European Reform,
which argues
that the EU should develop more effective and distinct policies.
The European Policy Centre's Stanley Crossick worries that not only was
the US-Middle
East initiative unduly prescriptive, it also underestimated the EU's
Euro-Mediterranean
Partnership and Barcelona Process; failed to address the Arab-Israeli
conflict; and was
not preceded by adequate consultation. Nevertheless, Crossick warns "we
must avoid the
danger that Americans and Europeans pursue competing democratization
strategies."
* A modulated explanation of the EU's approach -
www.eu2004.ie/templates/news.asp?sNavlocator=66&list_id=470
* Chris Patten's view on US Middle East Initiative -
www.eupolitix.com/EN/News/200403/54bd6104-2600-4b57-b553-92b50bfd6e5f.ht
m
* Europe and Greater Middle East Initiative, by Richard Youngs -
www.ceip.org/files/Publications/ARB-4-15-04.asp?p=1&from=pubdate#europe
* The Centre for European Reform -
www.cer.org.uk/pdf/briefing_se_trans_strategy.pdf
* European Policy Centre -
www.theepc.net/en/default.asp?TYP=CE&LV=373&PG=CE/EN/detail&l=&AI=373
* Euro-Mediterranean Partnership -
http://europa.eu.int/comm/external_relations/euromed/
* Berlin "Trialogue" on Mideast Reform
German foreign Minister Joschka Fischer has called for greater
transatlantic cooperation
to promote democratization in the Middle East. In a recent speech,
Fischer described
"destructive jihadist terrorism with its totalitarian ideology" as "the
greatest threat to our
regional and global security at the dawn of this century." He stressed
that Europe
developed special expertise in helping foster civil society and
political participation in
post-autocratic Spain, Portugal, Greece and the new Central European
democracies. To
build on this approach the Green Party's Heinrich Böll Foundation will
organize an
international "trialogue" on modernisation, democracy and security in
the Greater Middle
East on May 25-26 in Berlin.
* Speech by Joschka Fischer
*
http://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/www/en/ausgabe_archiv?archiv_id=5338
* Heinrich Böll Foundation -
http://www.boell.de/asp/frameset_en.html
* Alexandria Declaration: An "Arab Magna Carta"
Some 200 Arab intellectuals, academics and politicians gathered in
Alexandria, Egypt in
March, to discuss approaches to reform. Some observers saw this event as
a public
relations show managed by the Egyptian Government, because leading
Egyptian
dissidents such as Saad Eddin Ibrahim and Ali Salem were not invited.
But the meeting
produced a statement calling for sweeping political and economic reforms
across the
Arab world. Despite his exclusion, Saad Ibrahim described the Alexandria
Declaration as
"a sort of Arab Magna Carta."
Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak returned from Europe to address the
conference--in
closed session. While in Europe Mubarak assailed talk of a Greater
Middle East Initiative
as an attempt to impose reform from outside---a theme echoed by some
European critics.
Saad Ibrahim and others responded that Mubarak has steadfastly refused
even to meet
with the coalition of Egyptian groups, the Committee for Defense of
Democracy that
drafted a moderate plan for constitutional and political reform.
Members of 50 civil society organizations from across the region also
met in March in
Beirut for a conference on reform and human rights. The event, organized
by the Cairo
Institute for Human Rights Studies and Lebanon's Association for the
Defense of Rights
and Liberties, generated a letter to Arab rulers. The letter echoes the
Alexandria
Declaration in asserting the right of Arab citizens to live under
representative government
and to enjoy constitutional guarantees of freedom of thought, belief,
and association,
political pluralism, and minority rights. It calls for term limits for
executive office, full
equality of men and women, and demands an end to extra-judicial
procedures, emergency
laws, and torture.
* Alexandria Statement, March 2004
* http://www.arabreformforum.com/English/Document.htm
* Committee for Defense of Democracy--
www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-
dyn?pagename=article&node=&contentId=A30149-2004Mar27¬Found=true
* Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies --
www.cihrs.org/focus/fous.htm
* Reform Debate Roils the Middle East. . .
Some critics and commentators close to the region argue that the US has
bungled its
Greater Middle East Initiative. The Lebanese writer Gilbert Achcar
argues in Le Monde
Diplomatique that the plan is a transparent attempt to advance US
economic interests in
the region. He cites Egyptian social scientist Nader Fergany, one of the
authors of the
UN's Arab Development Report, who holds that the U.S. initiative will be
counterproductive to genuine reform.
Iranian writer Amir Taheri acknowledges the difficulties, but suggests
that the Intitiative
has at least changed the terms of debate: "...for the first time in more
than half a century,
the political discourse in the world of Islam is increasingly dominated
by the democratic
lexicon.... The ruling elites may be using all this talk of democracy as
a tactic to weather
the storm created by the events in Afghanistan and Iraq, and then revert
to their well-
tested methods of rule by violence and bribery. But cynics are often
wrong."
* Gilbert Achcar's article in Le Monde
Diplomatique-http://mondediplo.com/2004/04/04world
* The Scent of Democracy by Amir Taheri
--www.benadorassociates.com/article/3721
*. . . As Islamic Democrats Demand Change
A global Congress of Democrats from the Islamic World called for
"regular multi-party
elections" in Muslim countries. The Istanbul congress brought together
more than 80
delegates from 14 countries and was cosponsored by the United Nations
Development
Programme (UNDP) and the National Democratic Institute for International
Affairs
(NDI), in partnership with a number of NGOs, including the Turkish
Economic and
Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Delegates included present and former heads of state and government,
cabinet ministers,
members of parliament and party leaders. They agreed that Islam and
democracy are
compatible and can be mutually reinforcing. Rejecting authoritarian
regimes, the
declaration demanded "free, fair and regular multiparty elections that
enable a peaceful
transfer of power," and respect for human rights. "If parts of the
Islamic world are not
democratic, it cannot be attributed to Islam," said Yemen's Human Rights
Minister Ms
Amat al-Aleem Alsoswa, who described democracy in the Islamic world as a
"historic
necessity." Yet she cautioned that "It depends on [people's] willingness
to fight for it and
the willingness of the political elite for change."
* Congress of Democrats from the Islamic World -- www.cdiw.org/
* United Nations Development Program -- www.undp.org/
* National Democratic Institute -- www.ndi.org/
* The Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV) --
www.tesev.org.tr/
* Arab Democratization: Trends and Challenges
On 25-26 March 2004, experts and practitioners from research institutes
and civil society
groups joined government representatives in The Hague, Holland, to
discuss
democratization in the Arab world. The meeting, organized by the
International Institute
for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) an intergovernmental
organization
promoting sustainable democracy, aimed to increase understanding of the
prospects and
challenges of democracy building in the region.
The IDEA web site contains an overview of democracy assistance trends in
the Arab
world and a synthesis report of the IDEA 2003-04 project in the Arab
world, as well as a
paper on plans and proposals for further work by IDEA. Participants
included
representatives of the UK Department for International Development
(DFID), the UK
Foreign Policy Centre, the Friedrich Naumann Foundation, the Institute
for Multiparty
Democracy (IMD), the National Democratic Institute (NDI), the United
Nations
Development Programme (UNDP) and the Arab NGO Network for Development
(ANND).
* International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance
(IDEA) -
www.idea.int/newsletters/2004/Mar-Apr04/arab_world.htm
* Department for International Development -- www.dfid.gov.uk/
* Foreign Policy Centre -- http://fpc.org.uk/
* Friedrich Naumann Foundation -- www.fnstusa.org/Startpage.htm
* Institute for Multiparty Democracy -- www.nimd.org/
* National Democratic Institute -- www.ndi.org/
* United Nations Development Program -- www.undp.org/
* Arab NGO Network for Development - www.annd.org/Index-old.asp
* Transatlantic Relations "Galvanized"?
The risks of greater US-EU friction over strategy in the Greater Middle
East are
recognized on both sides of the Atlantic. American neo-conservative
Robert Kagan and
European commentator Ludger Kühnhardt, an expert on EU strategy, both
warn of the
dangers of transatlantic division. Kuhnhardt notes that, "For Washington
and Brussels
alike, the Greater Middle East will be the centre of strategic,
political and socio-economic
as well as cultural and religions concern for many decades to come."
Some European analysts see cause for hope. The United States and Europe
may actually
be "stumbling closer together," argues Elizabeth Pond, editor of
Transatlantic
Internationale Politik, the journal of the German Council on Foreign
Relations. "Out of
exhaustion, frustration, tactical maneuvering, and fright, perhaps," she
says. "But given
the alternative, who would quibble over motives?" Rosemary Hollis, the
Middle East
specialist at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London,
believes European
leaders' experience of the European-Mediterranean Partnership convinces
them that
"without a willingness on the part of the Arab regimes, very little can
be accomplished
from the outside." Yet she echoes Richard Youngs in acknowledging that
"pressure from
Washington could be galvanizing in the region, where European diplomacy
has made
little difference."
A number of think tanks in the US are engaging the challenge of the
transatlantic divide.
A policy brief from Carnegie Endowment associates Marina Ottaway and
Thomas
Carothers concludes that while the initial US approach was flawed,
potential for genuine
reform remains if all sides collaborate in addressing problems that
threaten Arab security.
A transatlantic group associated with the German Marshall Fund argues
that civil society
groups have a core role to play in strengthening "indigenous political
forces pushing for
democratic change."
The American Enterprise Institute's New Atlantic Initiative has also
begun a new
transatlantic bulletin, and the Center for Transatlantic Relations at
Johns Hopkins
University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) has
rejuvenated
TransAtlantic Magazine.
* Article by Robert Kagan -
www.ceip.org/files/Publications/2004-03-16-
kaganpost.asp?from=pubdate
* Article by Ludger
Kühnhardt-www.euromesco.net/imgupload/euromescopaper26_kuhnhardt.pdf
* Article by Elizabeth Pond -
www.dgap.org/english/tip/tip0401/pond.htm
* Article by Rosemary Hollis-
www.hum.utah.edu/mec/Lectures/2004%20lecture%20pages/hollis.html
* Euro-Mediterranean Partnership -
http://europa.eu.int/comm/external_relations/euromed/
* Carnegie
Enowment-www.ceip.org/files/Publications/PB29OttawayCarothers.asp?from=p
ubdate
* Transatlantic group -
www.cer.org.uk/articles/everts_others_iht_15march04.html
* New Atlantic Initiative -
www.aei.org/research/nai/projectID.11/default.asp
* Transatlantic Magazine - http://transatlantic.sais-
jhu.edu/transatlanticmag.html/Main%20Page
* Dissidents Use Web to Outflank Regimes
Non-state dissident actors in the Middle East have been successful in
using the internet
for political action despite state-imposed constraints on internet
access. States
deliberately target Internet-based dissidents by limiting internet
infrastructure or
imposing censorship. But dissidents have been "surprisingly competent
and
sophisticated" in overcoming state-imposed constraints, reports W. Sean
McLaughlin, a
research analyst with DFI Government Services, a Washington, D.C.-based
research and
analysis firm.
Using the internet for political action -
www.firstmonday.dk/issues/issue8_11/mclaughlin/
* But Mideast Has Least Free Media, says Global Survey
Press freedom suffered a substantial worldwide decline in 2003,
according to a recent
study by Freedom House. Legal harassment, political pressure, and
violence against
journalists worsened conditions in many countries. The Middle East/North
Africa
features the least media freedom, with 90 percent of the region's
countries rated Not Free.
The five worst rated countries in press freedom in 2003 were Burma,
Cuba, Libya, North
Korea, and Turkmenistan. In these states, independent media are either
nonexistent or
barely able to operate, the role of the press is to act as a mouthpiece
for the ruling regime,
and citizens' access to unbiased information is severely limited.
Freedom House - www.freedomhouse.org/media/pressrel/042804.htm
* Notable Comments:
Bernard Lewis:
www.theatlantic.com/unbound/interviews/int2004-04-29.htm
Key elements in Islamic law and tradition are indeed "conducive to
democracy," argues Lewis, one of the world's leading authorities on the
Middle East.
These elements include the idea that "government is contractual and
consensual" and a
"deeply rooted rejection in traditional Islamic writing of despotism or
dictatorship, of the
capricious rule of the ruler without due regard to the law and to the
opinion of the various
groups in society." Lewis points out in Atlantic Online that "according
to the Islamic
Treatise on Holy Law, the ruler comes to power by an agreement between
the ruler and
his subjects. This is bilateral. Both sides have obligations. It is also
limited. The ruler
rules under the Holy Law, which he cannot change and which he must obey.
So these two
elements, I think, of consent and contract, also have the element of
limitation, and can be
very conducive to the development of democratic institutions."
Adam Michnik:
http://www.dissentmagazine.org/
Experience of totalitarianism gives democrats in the former Communist
bloc a particular empathy with democratization efforts in the greater
Middle East and
beyond, argues Adam Michnik, one of Poland's leading intellectuals and a
guiding force
in the Solidarnosc union movement. Explaining his support for the Iraq
war and
democratization efforts in the Arab world in an important interview with
Thomas
Cushman in Dissent magazine, Michnik, editor of Gazeta Wyborcza,
Poland's largest
daily newspaper, says "We take this position because we know what
dictatorship is. And
in the conflict between totalitarian regimes and democracy you must not
hesitate to
declare which side you are on. Even if a dictatorship is not an ideal
typical one, and even
if the democratic countries are ruled by people whom you do not like. I
think you can be
an enemy of Saddam Hussein even if Donald Rumsfield is also an enemy of
Saddam
Hussein."
Francis Fukuyama:
http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/688/intrvw.htm
Progress in the Middle East towards more accountable governments
"might take one or two generations," says Francis Fukuyama, "because
authoritarian
governments are very deeply embedded" across the region. In an interview
for the
Egyptian paper Al-Ahram, Fukuyama argues that good governance and
democracy are
closely related and normally inseparable. An often-noted exception,
Singapore, is "a very
efficient bureaucracy, government by technocrats, without democracy so
far." But the
Singapore model of benign authoritarianism is unlikely to work in the
Middle East or
elsewhere because "in many cases it is really impossible to have a
government that is
responsible to the needs of the people it is trying to serve without
participation, feedback
and the ability to hold officials accountable."
INFORMATION
The Institute for Multi-Party Democracy hosts a European-wide conference
entitled "A
European Profile in Democracy Assistance" in The Hague, July 5-6 2004.
The
conference aims to enhance a European profile in democracy assistance
and develop a
stronger network of European agencies. (http://www.democracyagenda.org/)
The European Commission released â'¬10 million ($12.08 million) on 3 May
to the
International Reconstruction Fund Facility for Iraq for strengthening
governance, civil
society, and human rights. Initiatives will include the holding of
elections, the reform of
the justice system, the reinforcement of civil society and free media,
and offer training
and technical assistance to central and local administrations in the
practice of good
governance.
(http://europa.eu.int/comm/external_relations/iraq/news/ip04_584.htm)
The European Union has issued a new call for proposals addressing
democratisation and
human rights in Iran. The deadline for submission of proposals is 6 July
2004, 16:00
Brussels time.
(http://europa.eu.int/comm/europeaid/projects/eidhr/cfp_en.htm#macro)
The European Commission finalized a new Cooperation Agreement with the
Islamic
Republic of Pakistan on 29 April 2004 which establishes respect for
human rights and
democratic principles as an essential basis for co-operation.
(http://europa.eu.int/comm/external_relations/pakistan/intro/ip04_567.ht
m)
* Key Civil Society Documents
The Alexandria Declaration Issued by a group of Arab organizations at
the end of a
conference, "Arab Reform Issues: Vision and Implementation," held on
12-14 March
2004 at the Bibliotheca Alexandrina in Egypt. (Also available at
http://www.arabreformforum.com/ in Arabic and English.)
Arab Human Development Reports- www.undp.org/rbas/ahdr/
These reports, prepared by the UN Development Program, have stimulated
and informed the debate about Arab reform. The 2002 report
identified three "deficits" in the Arab world--a freedom deficit, a
knowledge deficit, and a
deficit in women's empowerment. See also background commentary (The
Economist, 4
July 2002).
The Sana'a Declaration Issued by the Inter-Governmental Regional
Conference on
Democracy, Human Rights and the Role of the International Criminal
Court, held in
Sana'a, Yemen, on 10-12 January 2004.
(www.al-bab.com/arab/docs/reform/sanaa2004.htm)
Greater Middle East Initiative Text of the "working paper" originally
circulated by the
United States in preparation for the G-8 summit scheduled for June 2004.
(www.al-bab.com/arab/docs/international/gmep2004.htm)
************************************************************************
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Yes, by all means, as quickly as you can get to it, reread "Mein Kampf". Failure on your part to do so, would really be "disgraceful."
Reread "Mein Kampf" and you too may perhaps see that it is loaded with exactly the same kind of discourse steve has been perveying here.
ican711nm
You have a perfect right to post whatever you feel is relevant. All you have to do is to follow the "Terms of Use". If I were you I would disregard notices from people who may have neither the patience or the ability to read your contributions.
If I were you I would disregard notices from people who may have neither the patience or the ability to read your contributions.
Neither is paired with nor as either is with or, and in those uses as conjunctions they pose usage problems of agreement.
