Good evening. Gallup is out with a new poll based on 950 people who identify themselves as Repubs or leaning Repub. This poll strikes me as pretty sketchy. But it is early.
It shows Huckabee with an approval rating of +30 (% thinking favorably - % viewing him unfavorably.
Gingrich is at +24 followed by Romney at +23 and Palin at +22.
In the high teens are Pence, Paul, Santorum and Thune. And also Jon Huntsman, our ambassador to China.
Where did he come from?
I have never heard of him.
@realjohnboy,
I had expected to see Jeb Bush pop up
@realjohnboy,
I think the main implications here are;
(1) there is no clear frontrunner,
(2) Romney & Palin are not likely winners;
(3) Republican voters are looking (hoping) for someone new.
@georgeob1,
Quote:(3) Republican voters are looking (hoping) for someone new.
More competent liars, someone who can disguise their native stupidity, someone who can feed the masses a more convincing dose of pablum.
@dyslexia,
dyslexia wrote:
I had expected to see Jeb Bush pop up
He did earlier on.
Not surprisingly I'm sure, I indicated I would like to see him run.
I always prefered him to his brother, but with that last name he's not going to run for at least another 10 years.
@realjohnboy,
realjohnboy wrote:Gingrich is at +24
I can't really get a read on Gingrich's chances, but I keep forgetting about him when this topic comes up. Part of me says that he represents the old GOP (Bush era) which I don't think tracks well even with Republicans. But then I wonder if he might represent the old old GOP (Clinton era) and Republicans might associate him with the the 94 flood and think highly of him.
Dunno.
A
R
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Due to the deplorable political use of the AZ. shooting by Democrats,
the Republican nominee will have a mush easier time being elected.
@failures art,
failures art wrote:
realjohnboy wrote:Gingrich is at +24
I can't really get a read on Gingrich's chances, but I keep forgetting about him when this topic comes up. Part of me says that he represents the old GOP (Bush era) which I don't think tracks well even with Republicans. But then I wonder if he might represent the old old GOP (Clinton era) and Republicans might associate him with the the 94 flood and think highly of him.
Dunno.
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R
T
Gingrich can't and shouldn't get the nomination.
He has a brilliant mind, but no soul.
Putting this here rather than on the Giffords thread:
John Podhoretz wrote:Sarah Palin has become a very important person in the United States. Important people have to speak with great care, because their words matter more than the words of other people. If they are careless, if they are sloppy, if they are lazy about finding the right tone and setting it and holding it, they will cease, after a time, to be important people, because without the discipline necessary to modulate their words, those words will lose their power to do anything but offer a momentary thrill — either pleasurable or infuriating. And then they will just pass on into the ether.
If she doesn’t serious herself up, Palin is on the direct path to irrelevancy. She won’t be the second Ronald Reagan; she’ll be the Republican incarnation of Jesse Jackson.
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/jpodhoretz/386302
The reactions to her video yesterday from the right have been interesting.
Word on the street is that the first official exploratory committees on the right are going to be Romney and Herman Cain. Not that the second guy has a shot in hell of winning, but he ought to be interesting.
At this point in 2007, there were 17 exploratory committees up and running.
Cycloptichorn
@Cycloptichorn,
Chris Christie has said he won't run but is someone on my radar who seems to fit the niche needed. Regular dude, straight talk, not crazy but combative.
There was an article today on NPR about the relationship between Republicans and the Latino community. It should be fertile territory for the Repubs as Latinos are generally socially conservative. Jeb Bush, former gov of FL laments that the party is doing very little, despite the fact that the Latino voting age population is growing rapidly.
The Latino Partnership For Conservative Principles will be meeting next week in Miami. Thus far, from the pack of potential candidates, only Tim Pawlenty, former Governor of Minnesota, has agreed to speak.
Pawlenty, by the way, is out with a new book which he is out promoting. He says that if he does decide to run it will be "sooner rather than later."
@sozobe,
Sarah Palin = 2nd Ronald Reagan?!?!
That made me laugh. I concur with the Republican incarnation of Jesse.
Senator Kent Conrad (D-North Dakota) announced that he will not seek a 5th term in 2012. When he leaves office he will have held that job for 24 years.
Observers suggest that there is a good possibility that the Republicans can pick up that seat. They control 9 of 10 statewide elected offices and the Democrats don't really have many potential candidates with experience and name recognition.
What really caught my eye though in reading some of the articles about ND can be summed up in one word: demographics. Bush won in 2004 amongst younger voters while losing those over the age of 60. Obama barely got more of the 18-29 year old voters support in 2008. Support for the Dems is, quite literally, dying off.
I did not realize that the real power broker in ND for years has been the Nonpartisan League. Its efforts have resulted in what one article described as a "Populist/Socialist" mentality for years. Evidence of this is that there is a government owned state bank. Grain elevators are owned by the state and corporate farming is not allowed.
The League is now losing popularity, particularly among the younger voter.
I don't know if we have any A2Ker's who know about ND. It would be cool if we could find a couple.
Two other big Senate stories came out this afternoon.
Richard Lugar (R-Indiana) announced that he will seek a 7th 6-year term in 2012. He was immensely popular in 2006, capturing 87% of the vote.
But:
Indiana is trending, albeit slightly, towards the Dems. Obama carried the state by 1%. It was the 1st time in 40 years that a Dem won there.
Lugar, despite being conservative, is considered too moderate by some. He could face a bruising primary battle.
He is 78 years old. He would be 80 in 2012.
Meanwhile, the NY Times is confirming the rumor that has been all over the internet today. Joe Lieberman (I-Connecticut) will announce tomorrow that he will not seek a 5th term in 2012. He was a Democrat, but left the party a number of years ago. That, of course, earned him the disdain of the dissed party and he has never been able to get much respect from the Republican leadership, nationally or in CT.
The Secretary of State there is Susan Bysiewicz. On Friday she said she had no immediate plans to run. This morning she said she is in.
@realjohnboy,
The changes you have indicated in the Senate, as well as others involving the redistricting associated with the results of the new census, should, on average, work to the benefit of Republicans in the Congress. Beyond that I still find it very difficult to forecast the results of the next election, particularly with respect to the president. I am inclined to believe that, if Obama plays his hand well, he can win another term.
@sozobe,
sozobe wrote:
Chris Christie has said he won't run but is someone on my radar who seems to fit the niche needed. Regular dude, straight talk, not crazy but combative.
Not crazy? The man just refused to have a second railway tunnel to New York built, even though 90% of the money would have come out of federal stimulus funds. Perhaps you need to live in New Jersey to appreciate what a big deal this was, and what crazy zealotry it took to turn it down. (And yes, perhaps I've just turned into a monster. I
hate the you-need-to-be-one-of-us-before-you-can-talk-about-our-black-sheep card when other people play it on me.)
Christie may well work as a Tea-Party candidate. But for Republicans in general? I hope not. And for the general public? Definitely not.
@Thomas,
i was under the impression the only thing mr. christie (mr. christie, did you eat all the cookies) would run for would be the buffet counter
@Thomas,
Since I'm not terribly impressed with Obama, I would welcome a moderate Republican candidate just to have a choice. So far all the Republican hopefuls impress me even less than Obama. But
if the Republicans are to beat him in 2012---if!---I hope it's Romney who gets to do the beating. So far he's the only pragmatist among the contenders with a record of getting constructive things done.
Well, Christie looks like a typical example of your scum-bag lawyer done well . . . nothing unusual about that. I am mystified, though, to know why anyone would blame the tea party for him.
