The Republican Nomination For President: The Race For The Race For The White House

Article in the NYT yesterday about how social issues are shaping the race in Iowa (and since Iowa is disproportionately powerful as the first primary, how social issues are shaping the race in general):

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/27/us/politics/27iowa.html

Excerpt:

Quote:

DES MOINES — The ailing economy and the Tea Party’s demand for smaller government have dominated Republican politics for two years, but a resurgent social conservative movement is shaping the first stage of the presidential nominating contest, complicating the strategy for candidates who prefer to focus on fiscal issues over faith.

Here in Iowa, whose caucuses next winter will open the campaign, social and religious conservatives are pressing the likely candidates on issues like same-sex marriage and abortion rather than on jobs, the budget deficit and other economic concerns that leaders of both parties expect to dominate the general election.

The development provides opportunities for candidates like Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota and former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, who have a following among social conservatives. But it could make Iowa even more difficult territory for, among others, Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, who has yet to visit the state this year.

[....]

While social conservatives have long wielded a greater influence in Iowa than in many early-voting states, a bitter fight here over same-sex marriage and rivalries among some of the state’s conservative leaders have amplified the issues and might help define the message of Republican candidates in ways that could resonate nationally.

No events have focused solely on the economy, job creation or even the health care law that is widely reviled among Republicans. Instead, the most prominent platforms for candidates to introduce themselves have been a number of forums — three last week alone — before socially conservative audiences in Iowa.

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@Cycloptichorn,

I'm still watching for (hoping?) an official split between conservatives and Republicans.

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http://www.stopliberallies.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/Herman-Cain-2012.jpg

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@ehBeth,

ehBeth wrote:

I'm still watching for (hoping?) an official split between conservatives and Republicans.

Never happen. The money-men Republicans know that this would be a disaster, so they'll instead just keep stringing these so-called Conservatives along with promises to do what they say... and once in office, do none of it. Just as we have always witnessed from national Republicans.

Cycloptichorn

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I was going to comment on the Iowa conservative gathering in Iowa this past weekend, but Sozobe's link to the Times pretty much covered the potential problems for many of the Repub candidates. The Teaparty folks have locked in on fiscal issues. Now there is another wing targeting social issues like abortion, gay rights and unions, for example.
The Repub leaders are fighting on two fronts. And many of the dozen or so thinking of running are grappling with how to deal with that.
In Tennessee, a state rep (Dem) is pushing for changing the election rules. At present an independent must gather something like 40K signatures on petitions and, if successful, will be listed on the ballot as "Independent."
The proposal is to reduce that to 10K and allow candidates to be identified as Teaparty, Libertarian or whatever.
The Repub Secy of State - who oversees the election process - has raised some concerns which strike me as legitimate.
Meanwhile, in Iowa, the Repubs got a favorable ruling from a federal judge. They can, if they choose, restrict participation in a primary only to registered members of the party. Dems, or people registered as supporting another party (or claiming to be Indy's) could not participate.
In both states the changes would be effective in 2012.

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@realjohnboy,

A lot of good info there, rjb. Thanks.

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LOL of the day

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0311/Trump_fails_to_produce_birth_certificate.html?showall

Cycloptichorn

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@Cycloptichorn,

Ha! Let the hounding commence immediately!!!

Exit poll question: Where was his hair born?

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@Irishk,

I dont think it was born, I think it mutated.

The "birth certificate" he provided is a joke, and I do hope the birther crowd starts hounding him about it. It will be fun to watch.

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@mysteryman,

Never hoppin.

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@mysteryman,

Donald Trump seems to have joined the birther crowd, and is making noises about running for President.

Now there's a man with mutated hair.

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@firefly,

Trump's run for the presidency will end up like his investment in his gambling casinos.

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My opinion of Donald Trump is simple.
He may be a good businessman, but I would vote for Sarah Palin before I would vote for Donald Trump.
And I dont like Sarah Palin.

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@mysteryman,

Trump and Palin are both too dumb, and will never get my vote.

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@cicerone imposter,

I agree 100%.

I was simply trying to compare the 2, and show what I think about Donald Trump.
Right now, I dont know enough about the potential candidates to offer an honest, reasonable opinion about any of them.

I have been watching the weekend talking heads and reading what I can about them, but right now one of the repub candidates seem like serious oponents for Obama.

Of course, my opinion can change as I find out more about the candidates.

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Volumetric Ethanol
Ah, the phrase just rolls off my tongue when I say it. I tend to raise my chin and my nose a bit every time I say it and I gaze into the near distance as if it were a bit of a minor god.
It is actually a tax subsidy costing taxpayers $6Bn this year but abolishing it is proving to be problematical. Of the potential Republican candidates, only long-shot Buddy Roemer (for Gov of LA) dared called for eliminating it. and he did so in, of all places, Iowa, where most of the corn to ethanol is produced or processed.
He claims that 4 out of every 10 rows of corn planted is diverted from the food supply and that is not right.
A spokeswoman for Mitch Daniels said something to the effect that he supports the use of ethanol for economic and national security reasons but he also supports strategies to phase out price support programs. All of the other folks running have declined to talk to the authors of the article I am cribbing from.
I have long been an opponent of corn being used as a fuel additive, mostly based on arguments similar to Roemer's.
The article I read - quoting perhaps biased scientific studies - concludes that corn based ethanol is not all it is cracked up to be. Some professor claims that it is at the bottom of the list of alternative fuel sources.
I particularly liked this quote from a corn/ethanol supporter: A reduction in a tax credit would be equivalent to a tax increase and I do not support any tax increases.

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@realjohnboy,

I think the lesson here really points to the basic flaw in nearly all government subsidies or arbitrary transfers of wealth. Their primary and most enduring effect is the creation of a well organized lobby that will work tirelessly to preserve the subsidy or transfer, no matter how ineffective and even harmful it becomes to the general welfare.

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@ehBeth,

Don't hold your breath.

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Trump can't hope to compete with conventional GOP candidates if he runs a conventional campaign. Besides, he's a showman at heart.

The birth certificate bit is a trial balloon he's flying to see how hard he can hit Obama.

Stay tuned for increased populist rhetoric.

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@georgeob1,

Quote:

Their primary and most enduring effect is the creation of a well organized lobby that will work tirelessly to preserve the subsidy or transfer, no matter how ineffective and even harmful it becomes to the general welfare.

You've just described the US military.

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The Republican Nomination For President: The Race For The Race For The White House

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