The Republican Nomination For President: The Race For The Race For The White House

3 million people live in the state of Iowa. It is the 30th largest state, or 20th smallest, depending on perspective.
Republican candidates have been racing around furiously. Thursday, Friday and Saturday will pretty much end it all. The country will focus on football Sunday and Monday, and then we will have the caucus thing on Tuesday.
Some 150,000 Republicans will get together (watch the weather forecast) to supposedly give us a 1st take on the view of the field.
The 150K (a high estimate in my mind) will not meet in some single big building. Rather, they will meet in private homes or they will sit in chairs designed for 1st graders in a classroom somewhere on the plains.
The process, while looking like a Norman Rockwell illustration, is carefully orchestrated. Meetings open promptly at 7 local time followed almost immediately by 3 minute speeches by supporters of the candidates. Then the attendees write the last name of the person they support on scraps of paper and deposit them in a shoe box with a slit in the top.
The idea is to get them counted and tabulated and reported before those of us on the east coast go to bed on Tuesday night.

Or, more likely, to give us the conservative Iowan view of the field. The Republican Iowan caucuses, for all the brouhaha about keeping them first, are simply a reflection of the far right wing of a group of folks who live the furthest from any shoreline.

People have been trying to dodge the bullet at the last minute since they heard it worked for Barrabas.

In at least one interview today, Newt not only attacks Paul but suggests that if Repubs in Iowa support him, Iowa will lose credibility as the early caucus state.

He's an arrogant fat **** isn't he?

Iowa has already lost credibility as the early caucus state.

Where did this supposed Santorum surge come from? Media created?

It's his turn.

You might want to stick a little closer to home in time and place for the question of solubility in water vs alcohol. Why worry about how Swift(ly) things go over your head when you can discuss the drinking habits of the Goths while ignoring the eating habits of the Irish.

Media surges are designed to get the sucker's cash in Media pockets.

Surprised he didn't say not allowed even if the mother died. Gods will and all ya know.

Gee, I've heard it said that Newt is supposed to be a bright guy.

I don't know what you mean by that, JTT, but I think that Newt hurt himself badly by trying to portray himself as the intellectual in this race. He, the professorial historian who could impress us with his ability to use 3 or even 4 syllable words and link together events from decades or centuries ago, has come across as a phoney to some.
He might recover after Iowa and NH in SC and Fla. I certainly wouldn't count him out.
I remain convinced that this will go on for at least a few more months.

Your right! God help us all!!!!

Plus he's been really working on Iowa, for a long time.

But yeah, this is still the revolving door of not-Romneys. ("Next!")

The 4 or 5 newest polls in Iowa - averaged - have: Paul @ 21.3%; Romney @ 21.3%; Gingrich @ 14.3%; Santorum @ 13.8%; Perry @ 11.3% and Bachmann @ 9.3%.
From what I have been reading, the Santorum surge is in no small part due to some late endorsements from key people (like the guy named Van Der Plaats) working to get behind one of the 3 candidates languishing near the bottom.
The latest poll, CNN/Time, is being criticized a bit because it was of "registered Iowa Republican voters." Nate Silver of 538 talks about what could be a flaw in the poll; specifically, that anyone (R, D, I) can attend Tuesday's caucuses. Supposedly, in 2008, some 15% of attendees were self-identified Dems or Indies who re-registered as Repubs at the caucus doors. Since there will not be a Dem caucus in Iowa, the number of newbie Repubs could be higher then 2008.
This could, according to some, benefit Paul. In addition, I see an anti-Washington, anti-big government mood benefiting Paul even though he is in Congress. Romney is not in Congress, but he is the guy from NE who helps pull the puppet strings.
The weather in Iowa looks good for Tuesday. The young and bright eyed enthusiasts for Paul are arriving.
My prediction of finish in Iowa: Paul, Romney, Santorum, Gingrich...Perry,
Bachmann.

I saw on a news report that Romney would consider coming second in Iowa to Paul a victory. - Your prediction matches theirs.

I'm finding the various Santorum headlines amusing. "Santorum Surges" and stuff. Also LOVE that Real Clear Politics' graph has designated brown as his color. (They've been doing that all the way through, it's not recent snark due to the surge.) (Just possibly it's not snark at all, but come on, that's too perfect.)

By the way, this thread is now one year old. 4200 posts; 63000 views and 70 "thumbs up." The last, I guess, might mean that this thread is deemed useful by a certain number of people.
The thread has drifted off topic on occasion. I appreciate very much that posters here have helped get it from getting totally derailed.
We have months to go before we find a candidate for the Republicans. I look forward to your thoughts.
Happy new year to everyone.
-realjohnboy-

I've heard on tv that Romney probably has the best chance against Obama, but I'm not so sure the majority of conservatives are ready for a Mormon.