The Republican Nomination For President: The Race For The Race For The White House

@spendius,

You're the one who is totally confused. You wrote,

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Your choice of words betrays your utter confusion. You just made honesty, diligence, peacefulness, goodwill, absence of self-seeking and such like delicacies look like stupidity and disablement.

Your list has no meaning when the politics of the day is driven by voters who doesn't understand what they're voting for. I didn't create or imitate your list in any of my posts of,

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honesty, diligence, peacefulness, goodwill, absence of self-seeking and such like delicacies

, you did. Nowhere in any of my posts will you find such an ignorant list when discussing politics. That you even entertain the idea of such a list shows you are unawares of politics - in any country in contemporary times or in history.

Why are you so good at making yourself look stupid?

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@firefly,

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. Governing requires leadership abilility and salesmanship. Good salesman have charisma. John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan both had it in abundance,

I guess you are correct as this can be seen all around the globe. If you do not share the same beliefs that the majority of the people hold they will not follow you, so if you are very intellectual and honest you will not stand a chance at being elected.

If you tell the people what they want to hear regardless if it is achievable or not you have a much better chance than speaking the truth.

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@cicerone imposter,

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I agree with most of your opinions except on the housing market

Whether people can pay their existing mortgages is a small aspect of the over-all U.S. housing market.

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Nearly four years after the housing market peak in 2007, record low mortgage rates are no match for falling incomes and 9% unemployment.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2011/11/29/u-s-housing-market-still-on-life-support/

People are also still leary of buying homes they fear might decrease in value, and it is still difficult for many to obtain mortgages. Low demand for new housing, affects the job market in the construction sector.

But, the steep declines in home value seem to have leveled off, and that is a good sign.

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The Case-Shiller Home Price Index, released on Tuesday, showed that nation wide home prices did not register a significant change in the third quarter of 2011, with the U.S. National Home Price Index up by only 0.1% from its second quarter level. Home prices are down 3.9% across the board and are now back to their first quarter of 2003 levels. The market consensus was for a 3% decline year over year.

From August to September, housing prices have fallen the most in Atlanta, with a 5.9% decline, followed by Tampa Bay and San Francisco, both with a 1.5% drop in housing prices.

Boston, New York, Washington and Los Angeles remain the most expensive cities in the lower 48 states.

“The plunging collapse of prices seen in 2007-2009 seems to be behind us,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “Any chance for a sustained recovery will probably need a stronger economy.”
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2011/11/29/u-s-housing-market-still-on-life-support/

Economists have said all along that the housing market will probably be the last sector to recover from the recession, so when the over-all economy strengthens, and those job numbers really improve, that's when demand will increase, and people will start building and buying the homes that fuel that market. I'm optimistic.

As far as the banks go, I agree with you. The Obama administration tried to provide some new regulations, on credit cards for instance, but the banks are determined to nickel and dime consumers to death. As far as the interest rates they pay, the Federal Reserve is determined to keep the interest rate low and that affects the interest rate banks pay consumers. I keep thinking that next the banks will charge me for the privilege of holding my money. Laughing

Lack of regulation helped to create the current recession, and now Gingrich wants even less regulation. The Republicans never learn.

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@firefly,

Your last sentence said it best;

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Economists have said all along that the housing market will probably be the last sector to recover from the recession, so when the over-all economy strengthens, and those job numbers really improve, that's when demand will increase, and people will start building and buying the homes that fuel that market.

There won't be any material increase in building homes in a market that has an almost 6% delinquency rate of existing homeowners.

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@cicerone imposter,

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There won't be any material increase in building homes in a market that has an almost 6% delinquency rate of existing homeowners.

Sure they'll be an increase in building homes, if the other 94% of homeowners are able to sell their homes to employed people who can afford them, and then move on to new homes, and employed first time home seekers also want to buy new homes. It will all depend on the jobs/employment situation improving. I don't see any of that as really connected to the current delinqency rate.

Some of the delinquency rate is due to people who bought homes they couldn't afford in the first place, and then many of those homes dropped in value, so those people ended up owing more than the house was worth. Not all of the delinquency rate is due to people losing jobs.

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@cicerone imposter,

I didn't say any of that. I was objecting to you saying that the voters are deaf, dumb and hapless, saps in other words, when they don't much care what is going on. About 50% don't even vote and of the ones who do most of them do so because they think they ought. They probably think that those who think they know what's going on are the stupidest of all because they are deluded. I do. These guys on the podium don't know what's going on. They just have to look like they do as Mike Huckabee does so convincingly.

What you are actually looking at is cheap programming. Ads are income and programming is overheads. Bearing in mind the constraints from the international situation and internal straight-jackets on a president's choice of action the programming is the equivalent of selling empty plastic bags. We have had four different leaders in the polls I think and the GOP is barmy if it goes with any of them.

"What's your policy on Pakistan Sir? You have 60 seconds starting from now." PING!!

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@spendius,

Mr Nixon is supposed to have said once--"**** the Lira". I don't think the next president can say "**** the Euro".

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@firefly,

Your ability to look only at statistics (numbers) shows you are way out of your league in understanding the housing market.

From nwfdailynews:

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Homebuilders glum about future of U.S. housing market
May 16, 2011 11:11 AM
The Associated Press
WASHINGTON — U.S. homebuilders are concerned that the struggling housing market won't recover this year and some feel it may be getting worse.

Builders' outlook for the industry in May was unchanged at 16, the National Association of Home Builders said Monday. It has been at that level for six of the past seven months.

Any reading below 50 indicates negative sentiment about the market. The index hasn't been above that level since April 2006.

When asked about where they see sales of single-family home heading over the next six months, the builders offered their most pessimistic outlook since September.

Last year the number of people who purchased previously owned homes fell to a 13-year low. Sales of new homes were even worse, hitting the lowest level on records dating back nearly a half-century.

Read more: http://www.nwfdailynews.com/articles/glum-40202-homebuilders-housing.html#ixzz1fbrQIkmV

From businessweek.com:

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Americans have not seen a boring housing market since the last millennium. You know—the average, ordinary kind of market where supply just about matches demand, prices are steady, and real estate ceases to be a topic of daily conversation. Instead, we've had six years of upside craziness followed by three years of downside terror. Now we're in a tug-of-war between those who think we've finally found a bottom and those who are convinced that the overhang of unsold homes is going to push prices considerably lower.

By 2012 we may finally get back to blissful boredom. With any luck, three years should be long enough for the U.S. economy to recover and for the nation's housing inventory to shrink to more normal levels. At that point, housing will return to its old ways, with prices governed not by national mood swings and global credit crises but by local issues ranging from zoning to immigration to job growth.

Prices? While they're likely to keep falling a while longer under the weight of foreclosures, the market is definitely closer to the bottom than the top. "We expect prices to drop for another year and then stabilize before starting to rise with incomes," says Standard & Poor's (MHP) Chief Economist David Wyss. Moody's Economy.com (MCO) predicts the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, maintained by data specialist Fiserv, will fall about 16% this year before regaining ground. Based on the National Association of Realtors national median home price of $180,000 for the fourth quarter of 2008, that would mean a median of $152,000 at the end of 2009 and then a rebound to $179,000 by the end of 2012.

Salaries are not increasing to keep up with inflation, so the average increase in housing from $152k to $179k is an increase that most workers cannot absorb. Not while more homeowners are falling behind in their mortgage payments.

When in the history of housing have you seen 94% selling their homes to buy new ones? You are way out of your league on this subject.

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@cicerone imposter,

Have you got that firefly?

You do understand I hope.

You are "way out of your league".

Twice for emphasis so that you can't misunderstand.

You are "way out of your league".

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@spendius,

Which isn't so bad really. I'm ignorant, don't know anything about economics or human nature, spend too much time in the pub and should get out more.

Only being "way out of your league" is almost a compliment by the standards I'm used to. Four of them voted me a "******* idiot" on one thread.

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@spendius,

You seem to be having fun. Laughing

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@reasoning logic,

spendi's a masochist by every definition of that word.

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@plainoldme,

Didn't mind Clinton the philanderer too much, though... What happened to none of this being our business... laughing

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It wasn't the Democrats that quit supporting Cain. They didn't support him at all, ever. Blame the Republicans for holding it against him and dropping him.

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@cicerone imposter,

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Your ability to look only at statistics (numbers) shows you are way out of your league in understanding the housing market.

Well, CI, you really should start looking at some numbers too--like the dates on the information you post.
My initial comment, which seems to have ticked you off was this...

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But this week the economy certainly looked brighter. The stock market made great gains, the housing report was better, and the jobs numbers improved.

Please note, CI, I said this week--I was referring to this week's economic news.

So, of course, to prove I'm wrong about this week's news , you post old news. Laughing

Quote:

Homebuilders glum about future of U.S. housing market
May 16, 2011

Check your calender, CI, it's December, not May.

And that Business Week article you posted, which is undated, is even more ancient--it refers to a projection for 2009. Rolling Eyes

And it contains this considerably out-of-date info...

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Moody's Economy.com (MCO) predicts the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, maintained by data specialist Fiserv, will fall about 16% this year before regaining ground.

Well, I'm really sorry you didn't read my previous post that contained the current info on the Home Price Index.

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The Case-Shiller Home Price Index, released on Tuesday, showed that nation wide home prices did not register a significant change in the third quarter of 2011, with the U.S. National Home Price Index up by only 0.1% from its second quarter level. Home prices are down 3.9% across the board and are now back to their first quarter of 2003 levels. The market consensus was for a 3% decline year over year

“The plunging collapse of prices seen in 2007-2009 seems to be behind us,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “Any chance for a sustained recovery will probably need a stronger economy.”
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2011/11/29/u-s-housing-market-still-on-life-support/

There's quite a difference in the outdated figures you rely on, and the current situation, backed by current figures, I am talking about. When I'm interested in past economic news, I'll be sure to turn to you for the info. Laughing

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Salaries are not increasing to keep up with inflation, so the average increase in housing from $152k to $179k is an increase that most workers cannot absorb.

I hate to tell you this, but your conclusion makes little to no sense to me. Firstly, you took your figures from that apparently several year old Business Week article, and then you seem to have missed the point of what those figures meant--to the homeowner. This was where you drew your conclusion from...

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Based on the National Association of Realtors national median home price of $180,000 for the fourth quarter of 2008, that would mean a median of $152,000 at the end of 2009 and then a rebound to $179,000 by the end of 2012.

That old report expected median home prices to plunge from $180,000 in 2008 to $152,000 in 2009. That's horrible news for homeowners! People who rely on the equity in their homes, or who want to sell them, don't want to see the values drop like that. And the predicted rebound to $179,000 in 2012 would bring them almost back to where they were in 2008, which would mean that homeowners had regained equity.
Housing prices haven't really increased, as you've concluded, they've just rebounded a little from a terrible plunge. You're upset because you think housing prices have risen, so that means people can't afford them. Rolling Eyes

After the devastation in the housing market, and the plunge in home prices, a positive turn in the economy would be indicated by a rise in home prices. Yoo hoo, CI, a rise in the median home price is good news after a plunge in prices--most people's largest asset is their home, they do not want to see it plunge in value in a recession, and they want to see it's value, it's selling price, go back up.

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Not while more homeowners are falling behind in their mortgage payments.

Homeowners who are falling behind in their mortgage payments are not doing so because of the current selling price of homes or the median price index of homes--those factors don't affect whether someone can pay their mortgage. Are you completely out to lunch? Rolling Eyes

But, if those mortgage strapped homeowners want to sell their home, to reduce their debt, you can bet your bottom dollar they want to sell it at the highest price they can get for it, and not at a recession-created much lower price. So, they aren't going to thank you for wanting to see the value in their home remain lower.

First you post old economic news, very old news, then you draw a rather odd-ball and economically inaccurate conclusion from that old data you yourself posted, and then you have the chutzpah to tell me I'm out of my league? Are you for real? Laughing

You don't even qualify as a rookie in my league.

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Oh Sturgis? You care to defend your ridiculous remarks, or can we take this resounding silence as your chastened acceptance that you were severely out-to-lunch?

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@cicerone imposter,

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spendi's a masochist by every definition of that word.

You being a sadist I presume.

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A month out from the first caucuses and I still see no signs of Newt's implosion happening yet. If I were a Republican, I would begin to be worried about this fact.

Cycloptichorn

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@firefly,

You claim that home owners gained equity, but there's still those 6% of homeowners still underwater on their mortgages, and that's current info. How is the housing market supposed to start showing improvements when a good % of them will be losing their homes?

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@cicerone imposter,

You are mixing statistics there CI.

Being underwater doesn't equate with losing their homes.
Many of those underwater have no problem paying their mortgage payment.

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The Republican Nomination For President: The Race For The Race For The White House

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