68
   

The Republican Nomination For President: The Race For The Race For The White House

 
 
revelette
 
  3  
Reply Tue 4 Oct, 2011 11:52 am
@spendius,
Tell that to Natalie Maines. You may well ask who?


Upset About Bush Remark, Radio Stations Dump Dixie Chicks


Apparently I got the quote wrong, was going from memory. Don't matter anyway; the point was that conservative entertainers are hardly singled out.

Note: I thought about my previous post and it might of have been insensitive to write the whole word when posting about Perry's hunting lodge. I apologize.
0 Replies
 
JTT
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Oct, 2011 12:09 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Quote:
Paint the GOP candidates as dangerous nuts who have sold their souls to the even more dangerous bunch of nuts, The Tea Party.


One only has to look at who said this to realize that there is a large measure of truth in it.
0 Replies
 
JTT
 
  -1  
Reply Tue 4 Oct, 2011 12:13 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Quote:
They can save America and the world from The Tea Party and Michelle Bachman. You may not like the world you'll have to live in during Obama's second term, but at least it will be livable.


Yeah, way more than livable! Compare that to the plight of millions around the planet whose daily lives have been made horrendous, a living hell.

Why the **** is it always about you greedy, amoral little fucks?
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Oct, 2011 04:43 pm
Christie made, in my Democratic mind, a great decision. He established his name brand. He, arguably, would not have won in 2012 but people will be watching him. If he, the Repub governor of a blue state, can preside over some recovery in NJ, that will be noted. And if he, as a person, can trim down from 334 pounds, that will also be noticed.
I would see him as, now, a front runner in 2016 if Obama is reelected and perhaps even a challenger to a Repub if the economy still sucks.
JTT
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Oct, 2011 04:51 pm
@realjohnboy,
Quote:
And if he, as a person, can trim down from 334 pounds, that will also be noticed.


He won't last until 2016.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Reply Tue 4 Oct, 2011 04:55 pm
@realjohnboy,
Quote:
Christie made, in my Democratic mind, a great decision. He established his name brand. He, arguably, would not have won in 2012 but people will be watching him.
Branding himself along the lines of Powell and Palin is a colosally stupid move. I think this was a mistake born out of ego, that even though he knew running for POTUS was a bad idea when people begged him to run his ego demanded that he try to figure out a way to justify it. Had he done so without going public he would have been fine, but in opening his mouth he cheapened the brand. Unless he loses weight he will not be a factor on the national stage, but now he has made doing so and running down the line much more difficult.
hingehead
 
  2  
Reply Tue 4 Oct, 2011 11:05 pm
@revelette,
I'm sure I saw on the Daily Show last night some fox person say that we should ignore the liberal rants of Roseanne Bar, segueing to the same person on a panel talking to Hank Williams Jr about the repub nom race. Moment of Zen indeed.

I think this is it (video not allowed for viewing in my third world country)
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-october-3-2011/moment-of-zen---gretchen-carlson-on-roseanne-barr

0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  0  
Reply Tue 4 Oct, 2011 11:11 pm
@hawkeye10,
You are making way too much of a single moment. The next time Christie runs, no one will think back to this week and think "I might have voted for him, but he cheapened his brand back in 10/11"
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  3  
Reply Tue 4 Oct, 2011 11:48 pm
@realjohnboy,
I'm not sure.

He had as good a chance as any who wins the GOP nomination to beat Obama in the general election...which is to say, a very good chance.

He may have gotten concerned about whether or not conservatives would fully accepted him. He's taken some NE Republican positions on a few issues that spell D-E-M to a lot of conservatives.

Personally, I think he could have gotten past that challenge, as he's the type of candidate about which a conservative from Kansas might say "I don't agree with with everything he says, but he's honest and isn't going to back down from a belief just because a lot of people don't agree with him. I tell you what, he'll take it to Obama!"

This is what was initally attractive about Perry, until he started fumbling trying to explain why he believed what he believed and to insinuate that if you didn't agree with him you were bigoted or don't have a heart.

Maybe he's not ready for the long slog of a Presidential race, maybe he even believes that he actually does have a deal with the people of NJ.

He's certainly young enough to be around for a while, but I'm beginning to move to the camp that says a candidate has to strike while the irons hot, and this may be his best chance.

He's not the presumptive heir in 2016 if Obama wins in 2012.

I feel pretty confident we're going to see a fresh young face in the VP slot of the GOP ticket in 2012. Even if Obama wins a narrow re-election victory, and no one wants to give Romney a 3rd look in 2016, the 2012 VP candidate will have a leg up in the 2016 primaries.

During these four years between '12 and '16 some of the fresh young faces of the GOP who did not grab the '12 VP slot will have come more into their own e.g. Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan. Christie could face some stiffer competition in 2016 than he would have faced this go round.

If the 2012 GOP candidate does beat Obama, he'll be taking one of those dynamic folks along with him as VP. and that person will be lining things up for 2020 for themselves.

A scenario where the 2012 GOP winner screws up in his first term enough to be vulnerable to a primary challenge in 2016 is not worthy of much consideration, as it is the least likely.

Assuming his decision was not based on personal reasons or a sense of loyalty to the NJ voters, I think he made a mistake and should have gone for it. I just don't see his chances significantly improving over right now.

Now Sarah Palin just has to be convinced not to run, the field will be set and we watch and see if Cain can pull off a long-shot and take Romney.
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Wed 5 Oct, 2011 01:42 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Interesting commentary on Christie, Finn. Thanks.
The CBS poll showing a big pop for Herman Cain in the past 2 weeks sent me delving into the underlying data. Here are some bullet points:
> The CBS poll was of registered voters (RV's) who identify themselves as Republicans;
> The results which made the news showed 17% support Romney (vs 16% two weeks ago), 17% for Cain (vs 5%) and 12% for Perry (vs 23%);
> Republicans polled who describe themselves as conservatives went 21% for Cain, 15% for Romney and 13% for Perry;
> Those polled who think favorably of the Tea Party movement support Cain with 24%, followed by Romney at 17% and Perry at 12%;
> When asked who had the best chance to beat Obama, 32% said Romney, 21% Perry and 8% Cain;
> Fox and ABC polls, also of RV's and taken 10/2-10/3, showed a Cain bounce but at the expense of both Perry and Romney;
> 46% of those polled by CBS said they were satisfied with the field while an equal % said they wished there was someone else.*

Many of you are more skeptical of polls then I am. And I must admit this one is of dubious value, particularly when I saw that some 50% of those polled claim to have watched part of the debates.
The next debate is, I believe, Oct 10th in NH.

* Christie's name wasn't listed as a choice in the CBS poll.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Wed 5 Oct, 2011 02:31 pm
Quote:
The early word on third quarter fundraising numbers: The frontrunners are still the frontrunners, and the Cain surge is only belatedly being matched with money. The numbers we know:
Rick Perry - Around $17 million.
Mitt Romney - "More than $14 million."
Ron Paul - $8 million.
Herman Cain - "North of $2 million." (That's about what he did in the second quarter.)


http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2011/10/05/fundraising_perry_romney_paul_cain.html

So we see here that no one has yet won the first round of the primary process....as someone was saying the other day (slate?) Romney is still at the door, flowers in hand, saying that he really really really wants to be our date tonight and is waiting on an answer.....this being the same guy we turned down before, telling him then to his face that he is not good enough for us.
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Wed 5 Oct, 2011 02:35 pm
@hawkeye10,
Interesting things about Perry's numbers: the $17M was in only 45 days as a declared candidate and he still has $15M on hand. That is impressive.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Wed 5 Oct, 2011 02:39 pm
@hawkeye10,
Here it is...and pretty good analysis it is

Quote:
Editor's note: Gloria Borger is CNN's chief political analyst, appearing regularly on shows such as "AC360," "The Situation Room," "John King USA" and "State of the Union."

Washington (CNN) -- So now that the Republican Party has dated just about everyone in the field, the question remains: What about the fellow your parents tried to fix you up with in the first place? Does he look any better now? Are you ready to get serious about him?

Mitt Romney is still at the door, waiting for you to say yes.

It's understandable, of course, that Republicans have been reluctant. They've flirted with Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Haley Barbour, Paul Ryan and Mitch Daniels. They were searching for something new, and Romney is definitely not new. In fact, he lost last time around. He's also got that Massachusetts health care plan (mandates!) hanging around his neck. He's been all over the lot on some social issues, like civil unions (now, of course, firmly opposed). And Romney can be annoyingly mechanical as a candidate.

But through it all, Romney has been there, waiting. 'The tortoise," declares unaligned GOP strategist Charlie Black. Patient. Smiling. Always ready with the right rejoinder. (Nice try, Rick Perry!) And he looks better all the time: He's proved to be a facile debater. He has weathered all the GOP tea party crushes (Perry, Cain, Bachmann, Trump, Palin). He's cleaned up his act a bit re: flip-flopping, deciding to stop apologizing for his health care plan and instead explain why he did it in his state — and why it's not good for the nation as a whole.

Sure, he may more robo than romantic. But he is also what many of the other candidates in the GOP field are not. He's steady, dependable, with some crossover appeal to voters who actually determine presidential elections: independents.

It's not that Romney has the nomination all sewn up post-Christie. He doesn't. A Perry or Bachmann win in Iowa complicates the race. A Jon Huntsman upset in New Hampshire redraws it. But it doesn't hurt that most of the candidates who have competed with Romney for a certain political space — the fiscally conservative, business-oriented, budget-cutting man with experience — have opted out or are struggling. The more traditional business wing of the Republican party just doesn't have another settled place to go, and the last remaining big-money types will probably end up with Romney.

The tea party — and much of the rest of the GOP base — has tried to come up with a Romney alternative. They're still auditioning a bunch of candidates. Not too long ago, the favorite populist alternative was Rick Perry. But his poor debate performances have stalled his meteoric rise. Funny about this process: Voters need to really watch and listen to the candidates to size up their presidential appeal. That notion hasn't been kind to Perry.

There is, of course, Sarah Palin. She's been happy to be the wedding crasher, showing up in New Hampshire the day Romney announces, showing up in Iowa around the straw poll in the summer. She's full of winks and hints and criticism of her fellow Republicans. But she's not in. And even if she were to get in, her numbers are inescapable: The latest Washington Post/ABC poll reports that only 31% of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents want her to run. Not exactly a groundswell.

Go figure. This was supposed to be the year the Republican Party would boldly break its own mold. Newly recruited activists clearly wanted nothing to do with an establishment line of succession for a nominee, as has been the case in the past: It was Ronald Reagan's turn in 1980, George H. W. Bush's turn in 1988, Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole's turn in 1996. George W. Bush was a relative newcomer, but, hey, politics was the family business. Then came John McCain, who beat out Romney.

So now, Romney waits, fine-tuned from his last time around. Republicans are still looking, but there's no denying the obvious: Romney is at the door, ready to go steady.
.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/10/04/opinion/borger-romney-waits/
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Wed 5 Oct, 2011 02:59 pm
@realjohnboy,
Nothing all that surprising.

Even among Republicans, Cain is considered something of a fringe candidate, and voters will always question the chances of a fringe candidate to beat the incumbent,even if they like him.

Not a whole lot of people knew who Cain was before this year (a lot still don't know who he is.) and there is a natural tendency to if not favor than feel more secure with the familiar over the unknown

Cain has an interesting personality and a unique way of speaking. You may have never have heard of Tim Pawlenty but if you saw him walk into a room and start making small talk with people, you might soon feel he's a like a million other guys you've met along the way.

Not so with Cain. He has presence, but I think that presence might as easily make you a little nervous as impressed.

He obviously speaks very well, but there is a cadence to his delivery that suggests he's been giving speeches (as opposed to being engaged in debate or conversation) for a good deal of his life. When I hear him, I think large corporate meeting rather than church pulpit, but he's definately developed a deiberate rhythm.

He comes across as a very personable fellow, but not exactly warm and inviting. I bet he knew a lot about the personal lives of his subordinates and was always quick to interject an appropriate personal reference, but I doubt he was ever one of the "guys," or spent a lot of time talking about what it was like being young Herman Cain.

He's got a good sense of humor, but there's a sense when you watch him in an interview that he can turn it against the interviewer as well as charm him with it.

Maybe he scared me too quickly out of the box with his stupid comments about Muslim appointees to his administration, but I have an uneasy feeling that another foolish comment is only one debate away. He's not given any evidence of that since the Muslim comments, but knowing how the press and the opposition (I repeat myself) are laying in wait for him I get nervous.

Lucky for him , it was right out of the box and no one knew who he was or if he represented an actual threat to win the nomination. If his position in the polls then had been what it is today they would have been on him like white on rice. Some may feel they missed a good chance the first time and are just licking their lips waiting for the next shot.

Assuming he doesn't stumble in the weeks and months ahead, as he gains exposure confidence in him being able to beat Obama will grow.

When does the perfect candidate ever come along? If you're someone who swears fealty to a candidate from Day 1, I question the seriousness of your thinking. Once the field narrows to three or four, sides will be taken allegiances formed and people will stop looking for the Lone Ranger to ride into town.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 5 Oct, 2011 04:12 pm
Cain's just the current available "none of the above."

Although in his case it was a bit more specific; "Not Romney, and not Perry either."

When he actually gets enough support to be taken seriously -- when he's not just "none of the above" -- he slides back again.

Meanwhile, he takes his own campaign seriously enough that he's about to stop with the politicking for about a month to do a book tour. (The timing is baaad if he were serious.)
Joe Nation
 
  1  
Reply Wed 5 Oct, 2011 04:35 pm
Palin is OUT.
Discuss.

Joe(damn.I wanted her in :-) )))))))Nation
Rockhead
 
  0  
Reply Wed 5 Oct, 2011 04:37 pm
@Joe Nation,
I heard she's gonna do dancing with the stars instead.

the schedule is less hectic...
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Wed 5 Oct, 2011 04:40 pm
@Joe Nation,
Quote:
Palin is OUT.Discuss.


Surely it was unthinkable?
0 Replies
 
snood
 
  -1  
Reply Wed 5 Oct, 2011 04:40 pm
@Rockhead,
I wish she's take a long dance off a short pier
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Wed 5 Oct, 2011 04:49 pm
@sozobe,
I think, Soz, that Cain's October book tour is not a bad move. Not much is really happening. He will be traveling around, on the publisher's money(?). He can toss in comments while Romney and Perry duke it out and the lower tier candidates struggle to get someone to notice them.
Romney, by the way, would probably rather have a root canal this weekend. He is scheduled to speak at the Values Voters Summit in D.C. The participants are anti-homosexuality, anti-gay rights, anti-abortion etc. He will speak just ahead of Bryan Fischer who argues that the 1st amendment should not apply to Muslims or Mormons.
 

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