The Republican Nomination For President: The Race For The Race For The White House

@sozobe,

Let's take advantage of your track record then:

Will Obama win a second term in 2012?

@Finn dAbuzz,

At this point, I'd say yes.

There might be big changes that'd affect my prediction.

But as of now, yes.

@Cycloptichorn,

You can believe she has no chance of winning if you want to, but the accuracy of your political predictions has you falling well short of being named the Nostradamus of A2K.

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@Finn dAbuzz,

Ooh does that mean I AM the Nostradamus of A2K? Do I need to get a beard? I think I can finagle the pointy hat thing...

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@sozobe,

Obama must rely on "big changes" to get re-elected. Unfortunately those changes like a reduction in the unemployment rate to less than 8% and economic growth rates above 3% are not likely.

If there are any negative "big changes" like the development of Solyndra or LightSquared into full blown scandals, he's toast.

I think (and hope) you are wrong, but we'll see.

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@sozobe,

If Obama wins re-election, I will nominate you for the title.

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@Finn dAbuzz,

Yes, scandals were the kind of thing I had in mind re: big changes.

Obama is already, right now, doing very well against the Republican candidates. And barring scandal-type big changes, I think this is about as bad as things will get for him.

He has a compelling narrative about the recession that he inherited from the Republicans, that eased and started to reverse under his watch -- and then backtracked again when the Republicans threatened to let the country go into default rather than raising any taxes at all.

It's very easy for him to look like the rational adult amongst a bunch of posturing, unserious contenders.

Romney is a bit of an exception there, but if it's the two of them against each other, I think Romney will fail to get much really passionate support, and will turn off a fair amount of voters with his malleability. People have a hard time trusting him.

So, even if things are still bad, I think Obama has a good chance.

And if things are significantly better than where they are now, I think he has a very good chance.

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@JTT,

Quote:

That's because there seems to be this huge fount of Americans who just can't seem to get their fill of dumb.

Dumb has its attractions Jayteetee. It's possibly a natural response to overwheming complexities, mysteries and downright incomprehension of what's going on.

Whenever I got plonked down with the aunties at a wedding do I was automatically rendered dumb by the intricacies of family gossip being caught up on since the last wedding. Or funeral. That's when I could tune in to the meaning of it all. Envisaging thousands of weddings just like the one I was at. A reverie.

I was once driving through some village in Cheshire on a warm spring afternoon and I saw a bridal car dispense a really beautiful damsel, looking like a cross between the Virgin Mary and the Sugar Plum Fairy, followed by some bandy-legged, bald headed diddico who I took to be her father come to give her away. I noticed it was a Catholic Church and that there were five photographers and a lot of parked cars of the type they manufacture on the continent of Europe.

"I'm not missing this", I thought to myself.

What a gorgeous 3/4 hr that was. The bridegroom, whose ship had come in, was a pleasant enough lad. A bit callow. When he passed my rear pew with his prize on his arm, a picture of modesty, after the ceremony when the happy couple lead the rest of the congregation out into the sunshine, in proper order, I couldn't help seeing him in two years.

It's how we men are rendered socially acceptable and upright members of society. There might not be any other way.

And it prevents property going to the state whenever a citizen passes out of this weary world of woe. Imagine the rich if their assets were going to the State. What a feverish splash they would make I should think.

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@sozobe,

sozobe wrote:

He has a compelling narrative about the recession that he inherited from the Republicans, that eased and started to reverse under his watch -- and then backtracked again when the Republicans threatened to let the country go into default rather than raising any taxes at all.

I've no doubt that you and some 33% or so of the American people feel that his narrative is compelling. The rest of the country feels it is whiny, disingenuous, and tiresome.

If all he has to run on is an incessent repetition of this narrative, he has no chance. Only true-believers are satisfied by having excuses of any sort to vindicate their faith in Obama.

If the economy is in no better or worse shape in November 2012, than it is today, people are not going to accept excuses they are going to want change. Whether it is change they can believe in or just hope for, they will take it.

If the economy doesn't turn around by Election Day, I can see a Republican landslide victory.

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@Finn dAbuzz,

Why do you think polls show Obama doing well against the current crop of nominees, then?

Right now?

Here's an overview:

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh12gen.htm

He's not winning in every poll against every candidate -- but he is most of the time. (And when he's not, it tends to be by a small percentage. Of the polls shown, he does worst in a general question of voting for or against him. In the same poll, he beats all of the current Republican contenders.)

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@Finn dAbuzz,

Quote:

I've no doubt that you and some 33% or so of the American people feel that his narrative is compelling. The rest of the country feels it is whiny, disingenuous, and tiresome.

That, and Americans have always voted with their pocket books. No president has ever in recent times been able to get reelected with the economy that I expect Obama to take with him to the ballot box next November. People like Obama personally, and think that whites are predisposed to except less out of Obama than they would a white guy and call it good enough because our racism radar gets activated when ever we think poorly of a black person, but when push come to shove and people need to decide I think they go with the guy that gives them hope of economic success rather than with a proven loser (Obama).

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@sozobe,

Quote:

Why do you think polls show Obama doing well against the current crop of nominees, then?

Race...they dont want to think poorly of a black man, and when they do dont want to self report that they do.

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@hawkeye10,

Right. In the privacy of the voting booth in 2008, they didn't want to be thought racists, so they voted for Obama. For only that reason.

(Polls tracked closely with actual election results in 2008.)

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@sozobe,

I don't think these polls show him doing well.

He is the incumbent president.

None of the candidates he is being measured against are the GOP nominee, and the person he actually competes with in 2012 might be someone entirely different.

Very few people are paying attention to the GOP candidates the way the people who have participated in this thread are. Most people in the street can't even tell you who is competing, let alone what their positions might be. These polls more accurately reflect votes against Obama, rather than those for Romney or Perry.

In all likelihood there will be another 13 months of terrible economic numbers weighing Obama down by the time the real vote occurs.

Despite what you may read from Obama supportive columnists and newspapers, I'm pretty darn certain that the White House political machine doesn't think he's "doing well" in these polls.

James Carville is a bit of a loose canon, and you always have to think twice about his motivations, but he's also pretty blunt in saying what he thinks. He may be wrong, but he thinks Obama is in trouble.

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@Finn dAbuzz,

Well, it shows more than 33% of people saying they're willing to vote for him.

If these polls are reflecting votes against Obama, he is again doing pretty well.

We covered the Carville thing already in this thread. (He's definitely been wrong before. And is another drama queen.)

I don't think another 13 months of terrible economic numbers is something to plan on, at all. I think IF it happens, Obama still has a decent chance. But I think right about now is when things start to shift. He's pushing the jobs bill and the millionaire tax hard. It's been shown that a majority (I'm stopping short of saying "large" because I don't remember the numbers, but significant) agree with that approach.

If it's successful, two things happen. One, it's his -- he again claims the get-it-done mantle. Two, it's likely to actually help.

If things are on an upswing by the time the election comes around -- even if it's not a huge improvement -- that's important.

By the way, I read a lot, but a fair amount of it is from critical sources.

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@Finn dAbuzz,

Quote:

I've no doubt that you and some 33% or so of the American people feel that his narrative is compelling. The rest of the country feels it is whiny, disingenuous, and tiresome.

Talking out your ass as usual.

You don't know the first thing about what 'the rest of the country' thinks, Finn, because you are a far-right winger; part of the 33% on the other side, who thinks that anything but tax cuts for yourself and more wars and torture is a bad idea.

I rest my argument on the fact that polling clearly shows that the public blames Bush and the GOP FAR more for our economic downturn than Obama. Far more. Despite years of mud-slinging by your side, people just haven't bought into your bullshit.

Cycloptichorn

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Is this stuff going to go on day after day until a year next November?

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@sozobe,

By the way, Sozobe, your thread "Obama '08?" is still very much alive with some 280K views. There has been a lot of chatter on that thread, leaving this one to the Republican Nomination.

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@sozobe,

sozobe wrote:

Well, it shows more than 33% of people saying they're willing to vote for him.

No, it says more than 33% of those polled would, right now, vote for him over a GOP candidate. Of course he will need a lot more than 33% of the vote to win in November.

If these polls are reflecting votes against Obama, he is again doing pretty well.

By losing to a possible GOP candidate 13 months before the election? You have a generous definition of "pretty well."

We covered the Carville thing already in this thread. (He's definitely been wrong before. And is another drama queen.)

I don't think another 13 months of terrible economic numbers is something to plan on, at all.

I would like to think you are right but there is no rational reason to.

I think IF it happens, Obama still has a decent chance. But I think right about now is when things start to shift. He's pushing the jobs bill and the millionaire tax hard. It's been shown that a majority (I'm stopping short of saying "large" because I don't remember the numbers, but significant) agree with that approach.

He can't even get Harry Reid to bring the bill up in the Democrat controlled Senate. There are some six Democrats who have announced they can't support the bill. I suppose you think they are not paying attention to the polls taken of their constituents. While taking delight in polls that indicate a majority of Americans want "The Rich" to pay more in taxes, you missed the ones that show a majority don't believe Obama's Job Plan will be effective.

If it's successful, two things happen. One, it's his -- he again claims the get-it-done mantle. Two, it's likely to actually help.

If it is successful, obviously it will help his chances, but there's little to no chance that he will get the majority of the bill passed.

If things are on an upswing by the time the election comes around -- even if it's not a huge improvement -- that's important.

Agreed, which is why I wrote that unemployment had to fall below 8% and growth rise to at least 3%. Neither of these marks represent sufficent improvement in terms of the economy and the lot in life of millions of Americans but they can demonstrate movement in the right direction.

By the way, I read a lot, but a fair amount of it is from critical sources.

Did I assert otherwise?

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Romney and Perry prepare to slug it out...

Quote:

After months of a Republican nomination race that struggled to catch fire, Rick Perry and Mitt Romney are now locked in a fight they both predict will extend well into 2012.

Republicans expect a split decision in the early voting states with neither Perry, the Tea Party favorite, nor Romney, the establishment candidate, able to land a knock-out blow for the Republican presidential nomination.More

1 Reply

The Republican Nomination For President: The Race For The Race For The White House

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