The rise and fall of the USA

I do not think it will happen soon. I think the beginning of the fall will be when there are global courts with the power to enforce what they rule, and then our economic/military power will be moot.

But it will be a long while before we will be unable to quash such a court (I don't think it's right to quash courts like that but yes, we will do all we can to not lose power and a fair court would take away our advantage since power isn't based on equality or fairness).

I think the US will grow stronger yet, and I think the world will eventually start thinking of containing us (peacefully) in earnest and they might want to change the law of "might is right" to "let's make a court room strong enough that America has to obey it too".

But I don't see us getting weaker for a long time and I hope we don't do anything that will seriously make the world desperate to balance the scales of geopolitical power.

An interesting question, but, in my opinion, the precedents don't really accomodate the current situation. No nation in history had the advantage of the solid foundation provided by The US Constitution. The unique attribute of our system is its unparalleled flexibility and adaptability. In every administration, from Washington's down to Bush The Younger's, there have been those who have maintained that, whatever the current course was at the moment, "The End Is Clearly at Hand". Like it or not, The US is more than merely likely to be a major player on The Global Stage for many, many generations to come. It will continually evolve, adapting to, interacting with, influencing, and being influenced by an also-evolving world community.

The European Economic Union and the US will draw even more closely together as the EU matures and "finds its feet", and both will be hugely instrumental in the economic development of The Third World, as it is in their own economic and political interests to do so. Stable, developed, prosperous, democratic nations commonly do not war on one another.

China too will become an economic juggernaught, dominating Asia and The Pacific Rim, hopefully though not necessarily, without an intervening war with The West. As China's economy develops, the reasons for and conditions which permit her totalitarian government will evaporate; the more people have to lose, the less likely they are to risk it, or to allow others to dictate to them how much they may have or use what they may obtain. At present, China is engaged in building the largest, most ambitious communications infrastructure in the world. With the resultant inevitable end of her people's isolation from the world, China herself will be drawn into the world community, forced to change in order to participate.

The Southern Hemisphere, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa and South America, will benefit from economic development on the part of all three major players over the next century, bringing both peace and prosperity to those nations as well. Both regions enjoy vast larders of untapped resources, the development of which will bring them fully into the World Community.

The world itself will become an economic community, a place wherein one's nationality will be of little more significance than today is the State from which a US citizen hails. The Internationalization of Corporate Structure ensures this.

These changes will take generations, and there is little doubt the change will come about amidst turmoil and upheaval, but the change is inevitable. The very character and purpose of nations is changing as technological developments reface the structure of society.


Just off the top of my keyboard, that's my take on it, anyway.



timber

Craven
Your comment about the "world court" was very interesting----do you think that was the reason we didn't sign on to the latest attempt to do just that?

I'm very encouraged by your optimism.

I have a suspicion that the thing that destroys us will come from within and nothing external.

I am pretty sure that's one reason we did that. But we didn't couch it in such terms, we said we were worried about the court being used for political purposes, but the real point is that people always have had those political motivations but the court would have had a bit of jurisdiction over us and that would have eroded our power.

edit:

The court we are talking about wasn't going to have a mandate to erode our power in a significant way though, it is going to have a very narrow purpose (unprosecuted war crimes) and isn't a court that could tip the scales of power.

Timber
Great analysis-----you have a vision------I truly hope you're actually a real visionary.

Craven

Yes--I agree with your analysis of the latest attempt but doesn't that merely emphasize the point that if we don't sign on to any further attempts and we continue to be so strong militarily, what can the world do?

Not much, like I said it won't happen for a long time. We won't only not sign but we will throw our full weight to make sure it doesn't affect us in a negative way.

I see it happening in 2 ways:

The world decides the balance of power is too tipped and too dangerous (we might have to do something stupid to get them united in action on this) and then decides to make economic treaties that strengthen the whole against the individual. Then they will have more leverage. But we play economic chess very well and unless they unite in one fell swoop we will be able to undermine anything that we choose to.

or

We at some point do it voluntarily (this may be what you consider destruction from within but I'd consider it a step forward if done correctly and if the court were made to work, as opposed to the methods we have now).

Craven

If your premise that our destruction will happen because of a world court, is correct isn't what you're suggesting sort of like playing with matches?

I wouldn't consider it our destruction as much as you would.

If our empire falls I think it will be gradual and it doesn't have to be a bad thing.

It's all about criteria, if your criteria is having America be the most powerful nation on earth I can see how it would be a tragedy for you. My criteria, however, is not about power, if we lose power but the world keeps the status quo or becomes a better place and most importantly (in regard to America) the American people don't suffer I don't think it will have been a desruction of any sort.

Additionally I didn't suggest anything on this topic.

I agree with you Craven about the world eventually feeling it has to contain and maintain, but I fear that our current leaders and I mean our American leaders are drunk with power and want more at any cost and are a hair away from passing the stupidity failsafe at any given moment.........I hope I am wrong....

I don't see the US falling in anything akin to the collapse of Rome. Our Constitution provides the flexibility for us to literally turn ourselves inside out and reform under the exact same words.

Perception:

I don't agree with your comment concerning the inevitable fall of the USA.
Thus, since I don't agree that it will happen, I can't give you a date.

Well then------since we're not turning out the lights anytime soon-----------let the good times roll.

There may be trouble ahead
But while there's music and moonlight (moonlight and music) and love and romance
Let's face the music and dance

Before the fiddlers have fled
Before they ask us to pay the bill, and while we still have that chance
Let's face the music and dance

Soon, we'll be without the moon
Humming a different tune - and then...

There may be teardrops to shed
So (But) while there's music and moonlight (moonlight and music) and love and romance
(Let's face the music and dance, dance)
(Let's face the music - let's hear that music)
Let's face the music and dance

Phoenix

When trouble starts I want you on my side.

Just for information-----I posted this topic on another forum----one that was full of hysterical critics of the US. Got very little response. Could it be that no one really wants to contemplate the demise of the our country.

Perception- Youve got it!

At the time of his election to the Office of President of The United States, the Federalists were certain The End of The Nation was assured by Thomas Jefferson and his "Dangerous" Republican agenda. Much of New England seriously considered seceeding from The Union. Contemporary speeches, pamphlets, editorials, and books bemoaned the sad and certain fate awaiting our poor, duped, surely doomed population.

Those concerns appear to have been somewhat exagerated.



timber

I was convinced that we'd never get out of the 1960's without blowing up the earth to smithereens. Somehow, we got through that, and we will get through this!