@paulhanke,
paulhanke;108054 wrote:... okay, let's work through a simple model ... let's assume that 75% of the predators that attempt to eat a Viceroy will never attack a butterfly that looks like a Viceroy again ... let's also assume that 50% of the predators that attempt to eat a Queen will never attack a butterfly that looks like a Queen again ... finally, let's assume that there are equal numbers of Viceroys and Queens ...
Are these reasonable assumptions to use in examination of mimicry ?
How about let's look at another scenario too. Let's say that 99% of bird which eat a Viceroy will not eat that "look" of butterfly again.
Of Queens, 1% of birds eating it will never eat that "look" of butterfly again. And to the final assumption: does 50/50 fit with mimicry theory better or worse than other ratios of mimic /mimicked ?
Quote:now, if the Viceroy does not resemble the Queen, then every predator in the region will attempt to eat a Viceroy at some point in time, with lots of Viceroy casualties
That is assuming that predators cannot learn from others' experience. Or from parental presentation of acceptable foods. That's a big assumption.
Quote:
... however, if the Viceroy resembles the Queen, then with a 50-50 chance a predator will try to eat a Queen before it tries to eat a Viceroy ... since 50% of those predators (25% of the total population) will never attack a butterfly that looks like a Queen again (to include Viceroys), this means that 25% of the predator population will never attack a Viceroy in the first place (fewer Viceroy casualties!)
You neglected to mention what happens with the 50 % who LIKED the Queen. They then try Viceroy, and like Viceroy a lot, too ! Maybe even more than Queen. Maybe less.
This is all ASSUMING, that "first try" results determines the permanent behaviour.
We CAN assume that first try of food is from parent's beak. And it is GOOD. Of course !
Also you are assuming that first try is always a matter of the draw: that seasonal fluctuations of both species are THE SAME. Perhaps, though, in the nesting time (first try), only ONE or THE OTHER is available.
Also, it has been shown that confusing "reward" giving , can raise number of attempts.
Quote:
... Queens fare slightly better - 37% of the predator population will never attack a Queen in the first place ... it's a win-win situation ... therefore, co-mimicry pays even if the two co-mimics are not exactly equally distasteful ...
No, not shown at all. Even assuming those all those things which are not safe to assume.
[post edited] In this case, assumptions all in place, it DOES NOT SHOW co-mimicry is win/win, it shows LOOKING alike is win for Queens.
---------- Post added 12-04-2009 at 12:23 PM ----------
Dave Allen;108123 wrote:I didn't argue that you were killed because of genes.
I showed that your claim that the scenario presented by yourself was devoid of much understanding. Criminals dying young is not a given
Again, you are showing confusion about my example purpose and claim.
Aside: of course you did not argue about genes and "killed". Ya argues about genes and learned behaviour.
I claim this is a ONE TIME example of learned behaviours and the ensuing result, showing the result of deletion of me.
Are you claiming, by any chance, that learned behaviours cannot have scientific results showing cause/effect, independant of genes ?
---------- Post added 12-04-2009 at 12:39 PM ----------
Now if we look at an example where 99 % do not like Viceroy, and 1% do not like Queen.
Advantage for the Viceroy to change toward Queen looks ? :perplexed:
---------- Post added 12-04-2009 at 01:24 PM ----------
paulhanke;108042 wrote:... agreed - but the "talent for mimicry" hypothesis explains why the variation in two contiguous regions should exist and also why it is the way it is ... the "Viceroys don't mimic" hypothesis does not ... in science (and philosophy?), the hypothesis that better explains the facts is taken to be the the better hypothesis ... but the facts laid out so far are rather thin, so there's no real reason to take one hypothesis over the other - as you say, bed time stories

...
yes, the hypothesis EXPLAINS why it COULD exist, if using a better example than this CLASSICAL example, but not that it SHOULD exist in this example, or any example in particular.
And no, definitely DOES NOT explain "why it it is the way it is".
As to the variance of the Viceroy over geographical zones; variance of a species over geographical zones and between isolated zones is THE USUAL, without mimicry necessarily involved.