@JPB,
And from there, no one seems to know where it will go.
1. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
LOUISIANA ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY. NOW THAT THE
SYSTEM IS OVER LAND AND WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT...TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES
AND ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.
2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN
CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
@JPB,
Send it westward for once. We could really use the rain.
@Butrflynet,
No, no, JPB. Send it EAST, sans wind. Please, Jaye. Send it east. We need the rain.
Bypass Houston, by all means.
The orange one is now up to a 40% chance of reaching tropical cyclone status.
Slowly getting over gulf water
@edgarblythe,
What is the latest forecast for Houston, Edgar?
Rain. Mucho rain, for about 48 hours. But no tornadoes and strong winds.
@edgarblythe,
I was reading about the flooding in the area around Laredo (TX) and Neuvo Laredo and Piedras Negras (MEX). The situation along the Rio Grande doesn't look good.
My brother and his family live in San Antonio.
Yes, Laredo and Piedras Negras are in for a bad time. We are under a flash flood watch, but nothing that compares with them.
When hurricane Carla came through Texas, I was just to the northwest of San Antonio. We got very strong wind that far from the coast.
@edgarblythe,
8 pm ET update looks more dire. Take care. Could hit land Thursday afternoon?
NUEVO LAREDO, Mexico – Reservoirs along the U.S.-Mexico border rose to their highest levels in decades after days of drenching rain, forcing officials to close two border bridges Wednesday, dump water into flooded rivers and evacuate tens of thousands from homes, with yet another storm on the way.
The dramatic rise of the Rio Grande caused by Hurricane Alex and continuing rains forced the closure of one major border crossing between downtown Laredo, Texas, and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico, and another crossing known as the Colombia Bridge, about 20 miles upriver.
Officials evacuated the flood-threatened Vega Verde subdivision in Del Rio, Texas, some 110 miles (180 kilometers) upstream from Laredo, while high waters in the northern Mexican state of Coahuila have already damaged some 10,000 homes — many swamped in waist-deep water.
"That means there are 40,000 people who don't have any place to sleep," Gov. Humberto Moreira told the Televisa network Wednesday.
To the southeast, Mexican officials evacuated nearly 18,000 people from houses in Ciudad Anahuac for fear that water would overflow the Venustiano Carranza dam and threaten lives. Mexico's National Water Commission said the dam currently had the largest emergency water release in the country.
Ciudad Anahuac Mayor Santos Garza Garcia said at least 1,500 homes had been flooded in the town of Rodriguez, across the Salado River from his city.
An airplane on an inspection tour of the flood zone crashed Wednesday, killing the mayor of the border town of Piedras Negras, the state public works director, a municipal civil defense official, a government photographer and the pilot and co-pilot. The plane was flying over a rain-swollen reservoir about 25 miles (40 kilometers) east of Eagle Pass, Texas, when it went down, said Ricardo Castillo, a spokesman for the border state of Coahuila.
Hurricane Alex dumped heavy rains on the region last week, causing flooding that killed at least 12 people in the Mexican state of Nuevo Leon, where Ciudad Anahuac is located, and leaving some 130,000 without water service.
The U.S. National Weather Service said a new storm was likely to make its way across the Gulf of Mexico and hit the region within a day or two.
Water behind the binational Amistad Dam on the Rio Grande already is at its highest level since 1974, according to the International Boundary and Water Commission, forcing officials to release water from it at the fastest rate in a quarter century.
The commission said the downstream Falcon dam would probably reach capacity within the next few days, suggesting future releases there will raise water levels along the river's lower reaches.
Much of that downstream area is protected against flooding by levees, but Mexico's National Water Commission said it was worried about low-lying settlements, most built by poor people without official permission.
"One of country's most serious problems are irregular settlements on federal land and in flood-prone areas," it said.
Authorities walked a painful, delicate line — forced to release reservoir waters they know will add to flooding in hopes of avoiding worse disasters.
It was an unusual state of affairs in a semiarid region where Mexican and U.S. officials often squabble over rights to scarce water.
Garza Garcia, the Ciudad Anahuac mayor, said 20 floodgates had been opened by late Tuesday at the Venustiano Carranza Dam, which was releasing 600 cubic meters (21,190 cubic feet) per second into the Salado River, a tributary of the Rio Grande.
"It was preferable having controlled flooding than having the whole town disappear," Garza Garcia said. "The situation is very critical."
Luis Lobo, who drove 16 people from Ciudad Anahuac to Nuevo Laredo, said hundreds of people from Ciudad Anahuac and nearby villages left by foot and were by the side of the road.
"They are out in the open. Men, women, and children with nothing to eat," Lobo said after arriving in Nuevo Laredo.
Garza Garcia said soldiers planned to take food to those stranded.
Sally Spener, public affairs officer for the binational Water Commission that operates the Amistad Dam, said the agency had tried to limit releases "so that we would not exacerbate the flooding."
In Laredo, city spokeswoman Xochitl Mora said officials had telephoned 3,000 homes in low-lying areas urging the residents to leave before the Rio Grande crested. She said a shelter would be opened at the civic center.
Mora said Bridge One was closed as a precaution ahead of the expected crest on Thursday. The water was expected to rise as high as 43 feet late Thursday — high enough to top the bridge.
Officials removed the heavy steel shade canopies to ease the weight on Bridge One before the heaviest water pressure comes with the river crest, she said. About 11,000 pedestrians and 13,000 vehicles use the downtown bridge daily.
A second bridge leading into the northwestern edge of Laredo in an industrial area was also being closed to traffic before the river crests.
The other two Laredo bridges, including the heavily used World Trade Bridge, were expected to remain open.
___
Associated Press writers Michelle Roberts in San Antonio, Texas, and Mark Stevenson in Mexico City contributed to this report.
We're still willing to take some of the excess wet stuff here in the southwest.
Edgar, what's the cutoff point in which you and Mrs. Edgar will be heading to the safety of the hotel? Is it expected to reach that point in your area?
We have no worries in my little spot. We live on a very gradual plane, far from any bodies of water. We could absorb ten inches of rain without flooding, in my opinion. There are some Houston areas that are certain to flood. Don't know how bad it will get. It is the people on the Mexican side I worry most about.
It looks like we will have TS Bonnie by morning and a landfall along the Rio Grande later tomorrow.
From Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff Masters:
Quote:The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.
The morning local forecast gives the Houston area an 80% chance of rain today, 40% tomorrow. Right now, it is pretty quiet.
@JPB,
TD2 (no Bonnie) making landfall
