7
   

Hurricane Season 2010

 
 
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Wed 29 Sep, 2010 09:18 am
@panzade,
15 GMT 09/29/10 22.6N 80.6W 40 996 Tropical Storm

We now have Nicole.


http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201016.gif
panzade
 
  1  
Reply Wed 29 Sep, 2010 09:37 am
@JPB,
It seems I erred. On your newest map she's not arriving til tonight!
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Wed 29 Sep, 2010 09:39 am
@panzade,
It looks like you're in for a long, wet day!
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Wed 29 Sep, 2010 09:43 am
Here's the satellite view. The COC is that clear area on the western side of Cuba, not the eye-looking hole in the clouds on the eastern side. She's weak for a tropical system and doesn't have a tight ring of clouds around the western side. I think what you were seeing is that gap between the feeder bands off the coast of FL.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201016_sat.jpg
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Thu 30 Sep, 2010 04:06 pm
Wowsah! that's a lot of rain!

Quote:
In North Carolina, the the tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Nicole has generated an epic rainfall event. Wilmington, NC recorded 20.69 inches of rain over the past four days, and 21.28" for the five-day period ending at 10am EDT this morning.


In the meantime, Invest 97 has formed in the eastern Atlantic and will be worth watching for development over the weekend.
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Thu 30 Sep, 2010 04:17 pm
@JPB,
Wowsah, indeed. Wilmington is on the east coast of NC.
Here in Cville we got 5-6 inches of rain in the last few days. 2" of those between midnight and dawn this morning, followed by sporadic but brief heavy showers this afternoon. And some wind. There has been some local flooding.
We were in a drought situation, with our main reservoir at 65% capacity until this week.
I can see my lawn turning green again.
0 Replies
 
Region Philbis
 
  1  
Reply Thu 30 Sep, 2010 04:17 pm
@JPB,

so far Bahstin has been damn lucky the system has stayed in-land...
panzade
 
  2  
Reply Thu 30 Sep, 2010 04:17 pm
@JPB,
marvelous sun came out today!
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  2  
Reply Thu 30 Sep, 2010 04:22 pm
@Region Philbis,
I heard Boston's s'posed to get a lot of rain tomorrow. Porter has already cancelled a bunch of its flights between Boston and Toronto for tomorrow.
Region Philbis
 
  1  
Reply Fri 1 Oct, 2010 03:24 am
@ehBeth,

it's been windy as all get-out, but so far all we got is a damp sidewalk...
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Sat 2 Oct, 2010 09:15 am
It's not over yet, folks.

Jeff Masters wrote:
October hurricane outlook
October is here, and it is time to take stock of where we stand and how far we have to go before hurricane season is over. The beginning of October traditionally marks the two-thirds point of hurricane season; approximately one-third of all hurricanes and 28% of named storms occur after October 1. Tropical Storm Nicole brought us up to fourteen named storms for the year, and I expect about 4 - 5 more named storms this year with 2 - 3 of these being hurricanes. That would add up to 18 - 19 named storms for the season, putting 2010 in 3rd - 5th place all-time for most named storms. Since record keeping began in 1851, only four seasons have finished with more than eighteen named storms. These seasons were 2005 (28 named storms, with the 17th named storm, Rita, occurring by October 1); 1933 (21 named storms, with the 18th named storm occurring by October 1); 1995 (19 named storms, with the 15th named storm, Opal, occurring by October 1); and 1887 (19 named storms, with the 10th named storm occurring by October 1.) The most likely time to get activity is during the first two weeks of October. There are still two weeks of peak hurricane season left before the activity traditionally begins to decline steeply (Figure 2.) Given the record warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic this fall, the presence of La NiƱa in the Eastern Pacific keeping wind shear lower than average, and the observed increase in late-season activity in recent decades, I expect this year's peak portion of hurricane season will last until the end of October. I predict three named storms, two hurricanes, and one intense hurricane will form in the Atlantic this month, with two named storms and one hurricane occurring in November - December, making 2010 as the third busiest Atlantic hurricane season of all-time.


http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2009/peakofseason.jpg

and the lasted on 97L
Quote:
NHC is giving 97L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday, but as of this morning, had not tasked the Hurricane Hunters to fly into the storm over the next two days. 97L will slow down to 5 - 10 mph on Sunday, bringing the potential for an extended 3 - 4 day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. Even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression, its slow motion may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and eastern Cuba next week.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Oct, 2010 07:11 pm
A new one to watch...
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Wed 6 Oct, 2010 07:43 am
@realjohnboy,
yep, but he should have minimal impact on any land mass. Currently TD 17, but soon to be Otto, he will make a strong turn to the east and become what is known as a fish storm.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201017.gif
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 Oct, 2010 10:03 am
@JPB,
Hurricane Otto, it is!
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Sun 10 Oct, 2010 10:17 am
One more storm taking aim on Central America. Not forecast to get much stronger than a TS but could bring heavy rains.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201098_model.gif
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Oct, 2010 03:05 pm
@JPB,
Paula, she is. It looks like it might get hung up between the Yucatan and Cuba.
panzade
 
  1  
Reply Tue 12 Oct, 2010 07:51 am
@realjohnboy,
Hurricane Paula, and I'm thinking this might be the one that's gonna come up through S Florida this year.
(fingers crossed)
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Tue 12 Oct, 2010 08:13 am
@panzade,
Too soon to tell, of course, but it looks like a bigger issue for Cuba.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201018_5day.gif
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 12 Oct, 2010 04:42 pm
@JPB,
Yeah. The newest projection has her heading pretty much due east over the length of Cuba. That is a strange path.
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Wed 13 Oct, 2010 08:04 am
@realjohnboy,
The models are showing some risk to the Keys.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201018_model.gif
0 Replies
 
 

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