7
   

Hurricane Season 2010

 
 
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 8 Jul, 2010 12:24 pm
We are getting heavy rain off and on. Nothing to get excited about right now.
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 8 Jul, 2010 08:08 pm
Since about 10 this morning, it has been pretty dry in our part of the country. It's about over here.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Tue 20 Jul, 2010 11:01 am
Invest 97L has formed in the Atlantic.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201097_model.gif

Dr Masters summary
Quote:
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the east coast of Puerto Rico has become more organized overnight and is a threat to develop into a tropical depression as early as Wednesday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra and Vieques islands over the past day (Figure 1), and all of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today. The storm could bring an additional 3 - 6 inches of rain to the islands over the next two days. The upper level low centered a few hundred miles north of the Dominican Republic is no longer bringing high levels of wind shear to 97L; wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, which may allow 97L to continue to develop today


Quote:
ForecastThe storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of flooding to the Dominican Republic today and Wednesday, and to Haiti on Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will begin moving into eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and South Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive as early as Thursday night. We do have several models developing 97L into a tropical depression or tropical storm. The GFS and HWRF both take 97L to tropical storm status over the Bahamas by Thursday, with the storm then tracking over South Florida on Friday and entering the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The NOGAPS is similar, but portrays a weaker system. All of these models foresee a threat to the oil spill region by Saturday night or Sunday, with the storm making a second landfall somewhere between the Florida Panhandle and Louisiana.
panzade
 
  1  
Reply Tue 20 Jul, 2010 11:08 am
@JPB,
Man, that thing is aimed at my house!
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Tue 20 Jul, 2010 11:17 am
@panzade,
You best be paying attention then, son.
panzade
 
  1  
Reply Tue 20 Jul, 2010 11:28 am
@JPB,
I'm too broke to pay attention squirrel
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Tue 20 Jul, 2010 11:42 am
@panzade,
kk

I'll loan you some attention.
panzade
 
  1  
Reply Tue 20 Jul, 2010 12:06 pm
@JPB,
Muahh! Go cheer the Cubbies. They really need it.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 20 Jul, 2010 05:49 pm
From what I read there is no circular motion at the moment indicating the formation of a hurricane. But lots of rain.
Watch this little bugger.
panzade
 
  2  
Reply Tue 20 Jul, 2010 07:38 pm
@realjohnboy,
Somehow I ended up in charge of putting up hurricane shutters for a couple of elderly people.(Well, I've got a big heart)
I'm hopin this one doesn't firm up.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Jul, 2010 07:11 am
Quote:
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday.


The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much. Source
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Jul, 2010 07:43 pm
And now we have 98L

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201098_model.gif

97L is now expected to track into the Gulf, possibly avoiding FL.
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201097_model.gif
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Thu 22 Jul, 2010 11:41 am
97L is now TD 3 with a good possibility of becoming TS Bonnie by tomorrow.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201003.gif
panzade
 
  1  
Reply Thu 22 Jul, 2010 11:55 am
@JPB,
You made my day. Phhhewwww.
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 22 Jul, 2010 12:19 pm
Each new report makes me less happy.
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Thu 22 Jul, 2010 04:21 pm
@edgarblythe,
The winds at this point are a benign 35 mph. But the associated rainfall is 6" or so. Once it squeezes between Cuba and Florida, things could certainly change for the worse.
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Thu 22 Jul, 2010 04:43 pm
@realjohnboy,
It looks like the folks in the Keys are going to get the brunt of it as she passes into the Gulf.
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Thu 22 Jul, 2010 04:51 pm
@JPB,
The National Hurricane Center has upgraded TD3 to TS Bonnie

WTNT63 KNHC 222222
TCUAT3
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
615 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

CORRECTED HEADER TO TROPICAL STORM BONNIE

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BONNIE...

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DURING THE PAST HOUR INDICATE THAT SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEPRESSION HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...AND THAT THE
DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.


SUMMARY OF 615 PM EDT...2215 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 75.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Thu 22 Jul, 2010 04:53 pm
@JPB,
The ensemble models looks like a LA landfall. Unfortunately, it also looks like it could pass right over the spill area and push a lot of oil onshore.http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201003_ensmodel.gif
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Thu 22 Jul, 2010 04:59 pm
@JPB,
By my measuring, about 60 miles SW of NO, with NO being on the "wrong" side of the spin cycle.
0 Replies
 
 

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