@failures art,
hmmmm....
I guess I look at it like someone who used to smoke a pack or 2 a day, quitting, then having a cigarette after 15 years of not smoking.
First of all, why would someone who hasn't smoked in 15 years even want a cigarette, or even think of one, beyond a passing fancy. (BTW, I add that about a passing fancy, because I realized that a couple of times I have come in from working outdoors, hot and sweaty, and thinking how good a cold bear would taste. I don't think that's a sign of impending doom, more that you know that would taste good. I could see the same once in a while notion about a cigarette, but it passes in 2 seconds)
If you do smoke a cigarette, it's much more likely you'll smoke a 2nd one, than if you never smoked the first.
The odds of picking up smoking again are higher if you keep indulging it.