Do you whistle past graveyards too?
Well, we agree on #1, and I'll be quite interested to see if anyone does not.
If you believe that Israel is more concerned with the temperature of Obama's support than nukes in the hands of Iran, then I think that you have gravely misjudged them.
Israeli's do depend upon and greatly value their nation's unique relationship with the US, but I feel certain that they will not roll the dice on their existence, by counting on the US to prevent Iran from attempting to do what its president has called for - wiping them off the face of the earth. Obama may consider Israel a vassal state, but they have repeatedly shown that they are willing and capable to take actions that do not please the US.
They took out installations in Iraq and Syria which they believed presented a nuclear threat, and at least publically, the US didn't approve.
The most pressing influence on their decision to act is not today's revelation (they probably were already aware of the facility), but the impending arms deal between Russia and Iran that will provide the Iranians with the means to shoot down invading Israeli jets. It's quite possible that The US change in policy concerning missile defense in Europe was one element of an agreement whereby the deal might be quashed and an Israeli strike, at least, postponed.
We can be certain that Israel has a detailed plan for carrying out raids on Iran nuclear facilities which they probably could launch tomorrow if they so chose. If they believe the Russian arms deal is going to go forward, I feel certain they will launch their attack on Iran.
Assuming the Russians aren't able or willing to sneak the weaponry into Iran in the middle of the night, Israel will almost certainly delay any decision until after the talks with Iran in early October. I doubt they have any more confidence that we do that the US and Europe can dissuade Iran from pursuing its nuclear ambitions, but they have to allow the charade to play out.
If politically abandoning the Poles and Czechs was the price to pay for killing the Russian/Iranian arms deal, it will only temporarily prevent an Israeli attack. Iran doesn't need the deal to continue its nuclear program, only to better protect it from the Israelis. With or without the deal, Israel will not allow Iran to go nuclear. Since there's virtually no chance the West can coerce Iran to stop their program, eventually Israel will attempt to do so militarily.
You may be right about Iran not actually demonstrating they have nukes by exploding one underground, but I doubt it.
Israel was low key because a demonstration on their part would have caused a much greater stir internationally than will one by Iran. In addition, Israel developed the weapon for deterrence while I believe Iran is doing so to enable it to expand its influence, and therefore needs to demonstrate what it has. Plus, I don't think they will be able to resist a spectacular show of power.
In any case, whether they demonstrate the capability or not, the effect of their having it will be the same for Israel and the rest of the world.