Cabrera and Posey Win M.V.P. Awards With Ease
By TYLER KEPNER
November 15, 2012
The final pitch of the World Series was a fastball to Miguel Cabrera that settled into Buster Posey’s glove for a called third strike. It was a fitting way to end a baseball season in which both were voted their league’s most valuable player by emphatic margins
Posey, the catcher for the San Francisco Giants, took the National League award on Thursday with 27 of 32 first-place votes from baseball writers. Cabrera, the third baseman for the Detroit Tigers, won 22 of 28 first-place votes in the American League, a somewhat surprising margin of victory over Mike Trout, the electrifying rookie outfielder for the Los Angeles Angels.
“I thought it was going to be a close vote,” Cabrera said, adding later, “I’m very excited.”
The debate over Cabrera and Trout, which raged on the Internet, did not amount to much among voters. Trout won six votes for first place, 19 for second and one for third. Cabrera was first or second on every ballot.
Cabrera won the A.L. triple crown, leading the league in average (.330), homers (44) and runs batted in (139), becoming the first major leaguer to accomplish the feat since Boston’s Carl Yastrzemski in 1967. Trout, an outstanding defensive outfielder, led the league in runs (129) and steals (49), while hitting 30 homers, driving in 83 runs (mostly from the leadoff spot) and batting .326. With three more hits, he would have beaten Cabrera by a point for the batting title.
“Anybody that follows baseball, it intrigued everybody, because it was so unique, with what Cabrera did, with the triple crown not being done in however many years — what an accomplishment, especially in today’s game,” Posey said, adding later, “But on the flip side, looking at Trout’s numbers, they blow your mind.”
Trout’s season was one of the best of modern times, as judged by Wins Above Replacement, a statistic that estimates a player’s overall contribution to his team. According to Baseball-Reference.com, Trout had a WAR of 10.7, meaning he accounted for 10.7 more victories than a readily available replacement player would have produced. Cabrera’s WAR was 6.9, which ranked fourth in the league.
Every other position player with a single-season WAR as high as Trout’s is in the Hall of Fame except Barry Bonds, who is not yet eligible. The names of the others are a gallery of the greatest players in history: Honus Wagner, Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Ted Williams, Stan Musial, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Yastrzemski, Joe Morgan and Cal Ripken.
The last position player with a WAR as high as Trout’s who did not win the M.V.P. was Mays, in 1964, when he lost to St. Louis’s Ken Boyer. Mays did not get a single first-place vote that year, but he followed up by winning the M.V.P. in 1965.
Of course, WAR was still decades from being created then, and the statistics of the triple crown categories commanded the most attention. Voters now have a more nuanced understanding of what those statistics really mean, but the 45-year gap between triple crown winners seemed to work in Cabrera’s favor.
Accomplishing something so rare, and so revered in the game’s history, gave Cabrera an edge. He added to it by helping the Tigers reach the playoffs, albeit with only 88 victories, one fewer than the Angels, who finished third in the A.L. West. (The Angels were 6-14 before promoting Trout in late April.)
And while every game in the season counts the same, of course, Cabrera improved as the races heated up. From Aug. 1 through the end of the regular season, he hit .344 while Trout hit .287. Cabrera also had a much better on-base and slugging percentage than Trout in that time.
Trout, naturally, ran and fielded better than Cabrera all season long. Those skills were readily evident and did not require a calculator to compute. Trout’s talents are breathtaking, helping his team in many different ways.
Cabrera helped the Tigers by shifting from first base to third to accommodate the free agent Prince Fielder. But he was merely adequate in the field and slow on the bases, so his candidacy rested mostly on his performance in the batter’s box. His extraordinary success there, factoring in the historical resonance of the triple crown and the Tigers’ division title, mattered most to some voters.
“Detroit overtook Chicago, and he really led the way for that team,” Feinsand said. “I don’t hold it against Trout that he wasn’t in the big leagues in April — but he wasn’t. He had one less month to make an impact. Trout’s September was good, but it wasn’t great. If he had a great September, who knows? Maybe the Angels get into the playoffs. To me, if two candidates are very, very close, then if one of them leads his team to the postseason, that does mean something to me.”
Sean McAdam of CSN New England voted for Trout, explaining in a column that while he considered Trout’s WAR, he endorsed him because he was more valuable to his team than Cabrera.
“If we’ve learned anything about measuring performance on the field in the last two decades or so, it’s this: Baseball is far more than hits and homers and runs knocked in,” McAdam wrote. “It’s also about preventing runs (in the field) and scoring them, or the very least, getting closer to scoring them (on the bases).”
McAdam continued: “Trout did far, far more of both of these things than did Cabrera. That makes him, in my mind, a far more complete player, and thus, more valuable.”
There was much less debate about Posey, who won the N.L. batting title with a .336 average to go along with 24 homers and 103 runs batted in, while playing the most demanding position on the field. Like Cabrera, Posey got stronger at the end of the season. Starting on Aug. 15, when the Giants’ Melky Cabrera was suspended for a positive steroids test, Posey hit .348 with a .973 on-base-plus-slugging percentage.
The specter of a positive drug test hung over Milwaukee’s Ryan Braun this season, after he avoided a suspension through the appeal process last winter. But voters did not seem to hold it against Braun, who was named among the top four on every ballot. Two writers from Milwaukee and one from Chicago gave first-place votes to Braun, who hit .319 with 41 homers and 122 R.B.I.
Two New York writers gave first-place votes to catcher Yadier Molina, who hit .315 while leading St. Louis to the playoffs. The Yankees’ Robinson Cano finished fourth in the A.L., and the Mets’ David Wright placed sixth in the N.L.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/16/sports/baseball/miguel-cabrera-and-buster-posey-win-baseballs-mvp-awards.html?hpw
