Dozens of people have been killed by murderers who’d previously been convicted of murder. Surely you’ll concede capital punishment makes recidivism pretty unlikely.
Even so: Pretending that murderers don’t consider the Death Penalty worse than Life Sentences is an exercise in denial anyway.
Next consider the fact that many murderers are not beginner criminals. More than half of all people arrested in any given year are repeat offenders and some 20% of murderers are already on probation, parole, or out on bail at the time of their offense. Out of 1,408,337 violent crimes in this country last year, 16,929 were murders. But not one person was deterred? Are we really expected to believe that with the tens of millions violent crimes that have been committed since the Death Penalty’s reinstatement, that the odds against a would-be murderer being deterred by the Death Penalty is greater than 500,000 to 1 among would be murderers?
OCCOM BILL wrote:Dozens of people have been killed by murderers who’d previously been convicted of murder. Surely you’ll concede capital punishment makes recidivism pretty unlikely.
So does life without the possibility of parole,
which is both cheaper in the long run,
and offers the possibility of overturning wrongful convictions when new forensic techniques are developed.
OCCOM BILL wrote:Even so: Pretending that murderers don’t consider the Death Penalty worse than Life Sentences is an exercise in denial anyway.
Nobody has claimed this, so this is a strawman. We stated that there is no evidence that the death penalty deters murder more than the other commonly applied punishments.
OCCOM BILL wrote:Next consider the fact that many murderers are not beginner criminals. More than half of all people arrested in any given year are repeat offenders and some 20% of murderers are already on probation, parole, or out on bail at the time of their offense. Out of 1,408,337 violent crimes in this country last year, 16,929 were murders. But not one person was deterred? Are we really expected to believe that with the tens of millions violent crimes that have been committed since the Death Penalty’s reinstatement, that the odds against a would-be murderer being deterred by the Death Penalty is greater than 500,000 to 1 among would be murderers?
You're arguing for the possible benefit of the death penalty, but you're ignoring the risks associated with it.
One the one hand, if there is a deterring effect it is too small to be measured.
On the other hand, we can be pretty confident that some wrongfully-convicted prisoners are being put to death.
How many innocent people are you willing to kill, just on your faith that the death penalty deters murder?
attention: when someone is desperate and commits a crime leading to a possible sentence of death, guess what, they get more violent and desperate.
the problem with society and crime is that, society forces crime to exist.period.
get real, get the big picture.
Many repeat-murderers have killed again while serving their Life Sentences.
No reasonable assessment can demonstrate that the actual cost of executing the condemned costs more than sustaining him for decades. The truth is quite the opposite, once you stop intentionally confounding the issue.
I couldn’t agree more that the standard of evidence should be overwhelming to meet the eligibility requirements for the application of the Death Penalty. Some of those same forensic techniques can be used to essentially eliminate all doubt. I’ve said before that I think a jury of Military Officers would be ideal to act as a failsafe, with all but unanimous agreement resulting in the commuting of the sentence to Life without Parole.
It's not a Strawman, DrewDad. It is a foundation argument. Once a person reconciles the fact that most murderers fear the Death Penalty more than Life Sentences, it should be more difficult to pretend the existence of the inferred greater punishment can't provide a greater deterrent.
On a related note: Your proposed ceiling relies on an absolute (that EVERY would-be murderer reasons as you suggest) that couldn't reasonably be assumed to exist. This should be beyond obvious once you consider that many would-be murderers are already serving Life Sentences.
Is the preservation of ONE innocent life significant?
A better comparison would be how many wrongfully convicted prisoners are put to death compared to how many people are killed by previously convicted murderers? Is less wrongful death not important or a reasonable goal? I think it is precisely the goal.
Not too many, based on that consideration alone, because the deterrent effect is so difficult to measure. But the answer is simple-> LESS than rightfully convicted murderers would kill in the absence of the Death Penalty.
The truth is: Deterrent is less compelling to me than the reduction of recidivism. Both benefits are irrevocably married together in this equation, so it is silly to separate them for the purpose of argument.
The answer is the same: Since it is impossible to be 100% sure that the State will never make mistake, just as it is impossible for any combination of deterrent and recidivism-prevention to be 100% effective at preventing future murders; I weigh the likelihood and favor the option that suggests less innocent people will be killed.
The simple truth is: repeat murderers kill more people than the State ever has with capital punishment. When it comes to measuring the effectiveness of punishments for wrongful killing; less wrongful killing = better.
Okie, do you have a point? Your argument here does not seem to support the death penalty. If "swift and sure" is your goal, then you should want to avoid the death penalty, and all of the automatic appeals that go with it.
OCCOM BILL wrote:Many repeat-murderers have killed again while serving their Life Sentences.
I'd say that's an argument for better a better penal system in general, not a argument for the death penalty.
One could make the recidivism rate for all crime zero, just by imposing the death penalty for all crimes.
The death penalty is not designed to prevent recidivism, IMO. Nor should it be.
OCCOM BILL wrote:No reasonable assessment can demonstrate that the actual cost of executing the condemned costs more than sustaining him for decades. The truth is quite the opposite, once you stop intentionally confounding the issue.
You're the one either being pedantic or trying to confound the issue with additional costs. Clearly, I was discussing direct costs to the government.
OCCOM BILL wrote:I couldn’t agree more that the standard of evidence should be overwhelming to meet the eligibility requirements for the application of the Death Penalty. Some of those same forensic techniques can be used to essentially eliminate all doubt. I’ve said before that I think a jury of Military Officers would be ideal to act as a failsafe, with all but unanimous agreement resulting in the commuting of the sentence to Life without Parole.
So you're actually in favor of overhauling the court system, not just the death penalty?
OCCOM BILL wrote:It's not a Strawman, DrewDad. It is a foundation argument. Once a person reconciles the fact that most murderers fear the Death Penalty more than Life Sentences, it should be more difficult to pretend the existence of the inferred greater punishment can't provide a greater deterrent.
Except we have actual data, rather than supposition, on which to base our decision. The actual data indicates that there is a ceiling effect, and that increasing the severity of the punishment past a certain level does not, in fact, improve deterrence.
OCCOM BILL wrote:On a related note: Your proposed ceiling relies on an absolute (that EVERY would-be murderer reasons as you suggest) that couldn't reasonably be assumed to exist. This should be beyond obvious once you consider that many would-be murderers are already serving Life Sentences.
Er... what? We're describing the behavior of a population (potential murderers). All members of the population do not have to reason identically for us to be able to chart the behavior.
OCCOM BILL wrote:Is the preservation of ONE innocent life significant?
That's my point exactly. The preservation of the life of someone who is not guilty of the crime is just as important as preserving the life of a potential murder victim.
OCCOM BILL wrote:A better comparison would be how many wrongfully convicted prisoners are put to death compared to how many people are killed by previously convicted murderers? Is less wrongful death not important or a reasonable goal? I think it is precisely the goal.
Why don't you put those numbers together for us, Bill?
OCCOM BILL wrote:Not too many, based on that consideration alone, because the deterrent effect is so difficult to measure. But the answer is simple-> LESS than rightfully convicted murderers would kill in the absence of the Death Penalty.
Again, why don't you put those numbers together for us?
OCCOM BILL wrote:The truth is: Deterrent is less compelling to me than the reduction of recidivism. Both benefits are irrevocably married together in this equation, so it is silly to separate them for the purpose of argument.
The answer is the same: Since it is impossible to be 100% sure that the State will never make mistake, just as it is impossible for any combination of deterrent and recidivism-prevention to be 100% effective at preventing future murders; I weigh the likelihood and favor the option that suggests less innocent people will be killed.
Now, I'm not a law expert, but where does it say we preemptively punish people because we think they might murder again?
OCCOM BILL wrote:The simple truth is: repeat murderers kill more people than the State ever has with capital punishment. When it comes to measuring the effectiveness of punishments for wrongful killing; less wrongful killing = better.
And exactly how do you know that, Bill? That's a pretty firm statement; I assume you have some data to back it up.
I would assume you're talking about murders by convicted murderers, though.
I'm interested in how you're going to calculate the number of innocent people who have been victims of the death penalty....
I provided a short list of suspected wrongful executions above, along with a MUCH longer list of examples of repeat murder.
Deterrence:
There is no reliable evidence that the death penalty deters more criminals than other commonly applied punishments.
This kinda impeaches all of your arguments about how the death penalty is keeping people from getting killed.
You keep saying how "there must be an additional deterrent effect", but the facts argue against you. (I've posted multiple links regarding this; I do not intend to go dig them up again just so you can ignore them again.)
Costs:
I do include the costs of all those appeals in the cost of the death penalty. That's because the appeals are triggered by the selected punishment, and not on the merit of the appeals themselves.
Recidivism:
You are correct that "continuing threat to society" is considered during capital cases, at least in Texas. Personally, I disagree with this policy, as I find it too speculative.
Ceiling Effect:
A ceiling effect in statistics is when the measurement device does not give a large enough range. This would be like an IQ test that only went to 130. A ceiling effect in pharmaceuticals is when you get diminishing returns as you apply a drug, and higher and higher doses produce less and less effect. It is this second type of ceiling effect I was postulating with respect to the death penalty. It is my own theory; it makes sense to me.
OCCOM BILL wrote:I provided a short list of suspected wrongful executions above, along with a MUCH longer list of examples of repeat murder.
So? How many of these murders were done by folks who would otherwise have been executed? You seem to have a habit of tossing around numbers to support your position, regardless of whether they mean what you say they do.
Cuhuatemoc Hinricky Peraita- Triple killer serving life without parole kills another inmate; finally gets death sentence
Robert Massie- In 1965, he was convicted of murdering a San Gabriel woman and sentenced to death. But his death sentence was commuted after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down California's death penalty laws. Because of lenient parole laws at the time, he was paroled in 1978, a year before he killed Naumoff.
Bennie Demps- Originally, Demps was sent to death row for the murders of R.N. Brinkworth and Celia Puhlick, who were fatally shot in a Lake County citrus grove. The victims were inspecting some land for sale when they happened upon Demps, who had fled to the grove with a stolen safe. Mrs. Puhlick's husband, Nicholas, was wounded. A year after Demps was sent to death row, the U.S. Supreme Court threw out capital punishment across the country, ruling death sentences had been imposed in an arbitrary way. Demps and 96 other death row inmates were taken off Florida's death row and returned to the general prison population. In July 1976, the nation's high court upheld Florida's new capital punishment law. And two months later, Alfred Sturgis was fatally stabbed in his prison cell. Before he died, Sturgis told a guard that Demps and another inmate had held him down while a third stabbed him. Demps was sentenced to death in 1978. Since his second death sentence, Demps has survived three death warrants - in 1982, 1987 and 1990 - by winning last-minute appeals.
My suggestion is to replace the death penalty with life without the possibility of parole. This hardly lets prisoners back out on the street to kill again.
I'll note at this point that your argument in favor of the death penalty has segued from "deterrence" to "preventing recidivism".
On a personal note, I'm about done discussing this with you due to your continued rudeness.
Dead murderers don’t kill more people.
Bill, you are the one making a positive claim (e.g. the death penalty is a more effective deterrent). The burden is on you to demonstrate your claim.
I've said you can't prove it, and that absent evidence that it actually does something, that it makes no sense to keep using it. Would you take a $500 dollar medication that can't be shown to be any better than a $250 medication? I doubt it.
OCCOM BILL wrote:Dead murderers don’t kill more people.
Good lord. I think you actually believe this makes sense as an argument.
DrewDad wrote:Only a ******* idiot would fail to see the obvious truth in that sentence. You really are pathetic.
OCCOM BILL wrote:Dead murderers don’t kill more people.
Good lord. I think you actually believe this makes sense as an argument.
Only a ******* idiot
OCCOM BILL wrote:Only a ******* idiot
And you call me pathetic? I think we all know who the bullshitter is, here.
Absent any data that the death penalty actually increases deterrence in any meaningful way, and in spite of anecdotal listings of, say, acquitted individuals who end up being convicted of later murders, I'd say the evidence still points to the death penalty being pretty worthless for anything other than vengence.