The 2008 Democrat Convention

@Cycloptichorn,

I edited my post to say there are some normal type people there too, cyclops. I am saying this with a sense of humor involved, remember that, but humor works when it is mixed with reality.

Republicans aim for family values, conservative values,cyclops, so you see more traditional type, normal type people, just my opinion. Republicans believe in business, which is what drives the economy of this country, cyclops, and that is an important distinction. Dems are groupee types, government types, etc.

So it is also my opinion that Michelle Obama's job was to cast her ticket into an image of normalcy, the all american family, and that is refreshing after the Clinton debacle. I welcome that, but I was sitting there thinking, hey she sounds like a Republican talking about her family, hard work, etc., instead of complaining about what the government wasn't doing and could do, but we know it was scripted to provide the image desired.

1 Reply

@OCCOM BILL,

Isn't there some argument to be made, that many of these people (ladies) passionately want the opportunity to cast their ballot for her, and as it won't do any harm, why not let them?

I hate all this bullshit as much as you do, I guarantee, but if it brings Obama another percentage point of Dems, and takes away a complaint, then fine with me...

Cycloptichorn

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@okie,

Well, I think it's pretty obvious that you define Republican as 'normal' and Democratic party members as 'not normal.' Which is revealing about you, but says nothing about the people in attendance at the convention.

Cycloptichorn

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@Cycloptichorn,

Cycl - in the US we use "historic" interchangeably with "historical"; in the rest of the world that's a sign of a lousy education.

Nor is "Democrat" a priori pejorative, as you appear to believe (in this case with good reason, mind you).

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@Cycloptichorn,

Not all, cyclops, but I admit, I do not identify the feminist types as normal. They seem a bit weird to me, I have to admit it.

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@snood,

snood wrote:

Well, for me, "looking forward" to Bill clinton's speech would be a little masochistic - though I don't doubt your sincerity. I gues I'm looking forward to it it in a way - but more in the way someone looks forward to getting the results of a biopsy of tissue feared malignant.

I always prefer facing my demons rather than letting them fester. And Bill Clinton is an extraordinary speaker. He will either deliver a 'barn burner' that builds off Hillary's unification message, or he will betray a sinister intent. The Party is bigger than the Clintons and I doubt they will reward in the future further negative meddling today.

snood wrote:

I like your words "wish they were irrelevant, and believe they soon will be".

Thanks. I believe Bill could win another term tomorrow... but I don't believe Hillary ever will. Her close approach in the primaries doesn't mean she wouldn't have been destroyed in the General.

snood wrote:

That kind of optimism is certainly touching, but the Clinton's would die and kill before allowing that.

Perhaps, but people need not choose for themselves whether they are relevant.

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@Cycloptichorn,

Cycloptichorn wrote:

Isn't there some argument to be made, that many of these people (ladies) passionately want the opportunity to cast their ballot for her, and as it won't do any harm, why not let them?

There is that argument to be made, but is it true that it won't it do any harm? That would make a fine argument for why she shouldn't be forced to do it; but a lousy one for why she shouldn't volunteer it. If she were really playing ball, really a team player, really meant her happy rhetoric last night; she could have simply explained how very much she appreciates everyone's support "but I beg you for the sake of the country...(bla,bla,bla)".

Doing so would have only served to increase her power in the DNC. The love you earn is always more powerful than the recognition you demand.

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@OCCOM BILL,

She's angling for a moment at the time the votes are cast where she can make a pitch for Obama and get some credit for the effort.

Watch her pitch a "unanimous" vote to her delegates when votes are cast.

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@Robert Gentel,

I don't think so... she's talked about "catharsis" too much...

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@sozobe,

Ok, let me know if I'm right (won't be watching).

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@snood,

Snood, think about it, if Obama wins, it could be the end of the Clinton era, or at least they would be pushed to the margins. Knowing the Clintons as you do, do you seriously think they want that to happen? I don't think so.

I think they know, and Hillary knows that she has to sound as good as she possibly can to endorse Obama, sort of, well enough to get credit for it publicly, but behind the scenes, no, they will only do the minimum, and in ways that are not easily scrutinized, they will work for Obama's defeat. All in the interest of 2012, and that was the main reason for her rousing speech, she is jazzed because she doesn't believe her aspirations are dead, only put on hold.

And in regard to Bill, he loves the limelight, and he loves power, and he is a bit more overt or transparent than his wife, I guess they are still married legally, but anyway Bill is one mean cookie, I would not wish to cross the guy.

Rush pointed this out today, and I agree, this is much like a gangster war, the Clinton gangsters have been backed into a corner, and they must submit publicly, but privately, that is another entirely different matter. I beleive you are correct in your distrust.

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@Robert Gentel,

I don't think I'll be able to watch either...

More bounce talk, from Nate Silver:

Quote:

This tracking polling will NOT reflect any convention bounce (or its absence). These polling firms concluded their interviews by mid-evening, before Michelle Obama's speech and before network coverage of the convention began. So if there is a response to the events of Monday night, it will show up in the field on Tuesday, which means that it will be reflected in polls released on Wednesday. Moreover, our research has concluded that there typically is not any bounce until the third day of the convention. As such, this polling tells us nothing at all about the convention so far, and it probably won't tell us a whole lot until at least Thursday or Friday.

It might tell us something about Joe Biden. I tend to agree with the conventional wisdom that there was liable to be a bit of a near-term backlash whenever Obama announced his VP choice, provided that the VP was not Hillary Clinton. The key phrase in there, however, is "near-term". If Hillary is able to rally her supporters to the Obama-Biden ticket tonight, there could still be a latent/lagged VP bounce for Obama that gets rolled up into his convention bounce.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/todays-polls-826.html

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@sozobe,

Obama moves up in the (mostly useless) national tracking poll by three points (46-44 M to 45-44 O), and they report that he had a very good Tues. in polling.

Cycloptichorn

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From Rasmussen today - second polling day following Michelle Obama's speech and first day after Hillary - all percentages reflect three-day rolling average:

Quote:

Wednesday, August 27, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 44% of the vote for the second straight day. When "leaners" are included, though, McCain picked up another point since yesterday and now has a statistically insignificant one-point advantage over Obama, 47% to 46%.

This is the first time since August 9 that McCain has held any advantage over Obama. The candidates have been within two points of each other on every day but two for the past month (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.

McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 53% . . . .

. . . .Tonight, Joe Biden will address the convention after his selection as Obama’s running mate received mixed reviews.

Despite Biden’s presence, Bill Clinton will be the feature story on Wednesday night and he is currently viewed favorably by 84% of Democrats. That’s two points higher than Obama’s total. However, Clinton is viewed Very Favorably by just 46% of Democrats while 62% are that enthusiastic about Obama. One factor may be that just 52% of Democrats believe Bill Clinton wants Barack Obama to win the White House in November. Similar skepticism was expressed about Hillary Clinton before her well-received speech last night.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

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@Foxfyre,

I'm pretty sure you're wrong about the dates, Fox - unless Ras conducted today's polling before 9:30 AM eastern time, what you are looking at are the last three days before today - Sun, Mon, and Tues. Wed's results will be included in tomorrow's poll.

Cycloptichorn

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@Cycloptichorn,

Maybe, but I listen to Scott Rasmussen talk about his polls from time to time and I think the polls are conducted over night every night with the rolling average posted the next morning. That was underscored yesterday when Rasmussen reported Obama receiving no 'bounce' as yet from his convention. But whatever, the poll results are interesting to look at and do underscore some of the discussion on this thread this morning.

Two or three points in ANY poll are relatively meaningless at this point, however.

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@Foxfyre,

I agree, so far no significant movement either way.

The polling he reported had to have been conducted before Hillary's speech, as there doesn't seem like there would have been much time afterwards (ended after 11 on the east coast, I doubt they call people that late) and it seems unlikely that they conducted the polls all this morning as well.

Typically tracking polls run a day behind...

Cycloptichorn

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@Cycloptichorn,

Still no bounce for Obama... amazing.

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@Foxfyre,

Yup. So the poll released on Wednesday includes polling until Tuesday.

And, just for the sake of comparison, here's the Gallup poll for the same timeframe:

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/080827DailyUpdateGraph1_hjklmnb.gif

Quote:

So far, however, there has been little major change in the structure of the race. As mentioned, interviewing by Gallup on Tuesday night showed a stronger Obama performance, which could augur the beginnings of a bounce for Obama, as is evident more often than not immediately after a candidate's convention. Gallup's official "post-convention bounce" reading on Obama's support will be based on interviewing conducted Friday through Sunday. However, with the McCain campaign hinting that it will attempt to dampen an Obama bounce with a quick announcement of the Republican vice presidential nominee on Friday, any effect from the Democratic convention may be short-lived.

Of course, that's all polls from one pollster each. It will be interesting to see if a trend across polls develops...

Here is how the trend currently looks like at pollster.com:

http://www.pollster.com/08USPresGEMvO600.png

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@old europe,

Most data shows McCain with a 1 pt. lead.

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The 2008 Democrat Convention

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