Obama's electability

Obama is a big time liberal

finn wrote:

Obama is a big time liberal

jesus freakin' christ where do you get this shi*t? kucinich is a liberal Obama/Clinton are moderate magnum moderates.

I don't understand

Yes, Obama and Clinton are moderates in the US.

Kucinich is liberal in the US, but just about middle of the road re a lot of the rest of the world.

And who is a real liberal in American politics?

kucinich is a liberal

Kucinich is liberal in the US

A Reuters/Zogby poll showed Obama opening an 8-point national lead on Republican John McCain as the two looked ahead to a likely general election battle for the White House in November.

Obama can be beaten on the basis of politics, but McCain will also have the unfortunate (and for him undesired) advantage that Obama is black.

When Obama loses in November I would love to be able to assert that it was a rejection of the left (and to a large extent it will be) but it will also be an issue of race.

Let's look at the West Virginia exit poll, in which 16% of white voters (more than 95% of primary voters were white) reported that race was a factor in their decision to vote for Hillary Clinton. Clinton won with 67% of the vote. If we take the 16% at their word, all but 1% of Clinton's margin of victory can be attributed to white voters who admit that they were less likely to vote for Obama on account of his race.

In Kentucky, as Pam Spaulding reports, the situation was even more bleak. Some 18% of white voters (99% of Kentucky voters were white) reported that race was a factor in their decision to vote for Hillary Clinton. Clinton won Kentucky with 65%. Without the 18% of voters who admit that race was a factor in their decision to vote for her, she would have received only 47% of the vote.

Revel

Am i to understand that a black voting for Obama because of his race is not racism but a white not voting for him because of his race is?

A left of center Democrat would have an 8.0 chance of winning.

Obama can be beaten on the basis of politics, but McCain will also have the unfortunate (and for him undesired) advantage that Obama is black.

When Obama loses in November I would love to be able to assert that it was a rejection of the left (and to a large extent it will be) but it will also be an issue of race.

Sad to say that there are still people in America who will not vote for a person because they are black. I don't think they are anything but a minority, but they will be enough to push the win to McCain.

I agree that race is a factor in this election. However,not in the terms you have expressed. The primaries have shown that whites have are ready and willing to vote for a black candidate while 80 to 90% of black voters have have flocked to Obama's banner . Yes indeed race was a factor in the primaries.

okie wrote:

nimh, how many people are voting FOR Obama because of race, including white and black? Do you have data for that? I think alot of whites are voting for Obama because of race.

Yeah, that would be the same [exit poll] data. I went through the data for this question back up to the March 4 primaries, and here's what I found. [..]





In short, race has only really yielded Obama votes in the two states where blacks made up a third or more of the primary voters, Mississippi and North-Carolina. There, blacks who voted for Obama at least partly because of race apparently clearly outnumbered whites who voted against him at least partly because of it.

Voters in the socially liberal states of Vermont and Oregon also yielded a net few votes for Obama on race, but negligeable amounts because there just werent many voters there for whom it was an important factor.

Meanwhile, Hillary reaped significant amounts of votes on the basis of race in all the other states.

In Ohio and Pennsylvania, even if you look at all voters and not just white ones, those voting for Hillary for whom race was an important consideration outnumbered those who voted for Obama at least partly because of race by a margin of 20 percentage points. In Rhode Island they did so by 30 points; and in Kentucky and West-Virginia by 65-70 points.

When you translate those leads in numbers of votes, you're talking about a net 50-100 thousand votes she won in almost each of those states from those who called race an important factor in their choice.

okie wrote:

there is always the element of [the respondents in exit polls] telling you what is politically correct.

Absolutely. That's why I believe that if, for example, one in five white voters in West-Virginia and Kentucky say they voted for Hillary at least partly because of the candidates' race, you can bet your life that the number in reality is only larger.

Blacks (or whites!) voting for the black candidate at least partly because of his race, on the other hand, is not very politically incorrect, is it? If anything, it's actually quite PC - the kind of thing your average liberal would only all too eagerly admit to.

So I think - but this is just a guess on my part - that the exit polls underestimate the number of people who vote against Obama because he's black by much more than they underestimate the number of people who voted for him because he's black. So if already now, the number voting against him because of race is higher than the number of those voting for him because of race, well... then race is probably even more of a net loss for him in reality.

au1929 wrote:

Am i to understand that a black voting for Obama because of his race is not racism but a white not voting for him because of his race is?

Those black voters have voted for white candidates numerous times before. And it's not like they'd vote for any black guy over a white man: see Sharpton, Al.

On the other hand, there seem to be a fair number of whites who will never vote for any black person.

The Myth Of The Black Racist Voter
By Ta-Nehisi Coates - May 12, 2008

One very foolish meme that's made it's way into the primary is this notion that black people voting for Barack in large margins is the equivalent (or on the scale of racism, arguably worse) of white people breaking for Hillary in similar margins. [..] I just want to venture a quick response.

Blacks have been voting for whites for president since they've gotten the vote. There is no question about black people's ability to vote for a white man for president. Even in cases when blacks have a so-called black leader in the actual race, they still--in crucial times--have voted for the white guy. This is why it was patently foolish to infer that Latinos voting for Hillary were racist, when in fact Latinos had supported black candidates on several occasions.

Whites enjoy no such record. Whereas we have several anecdotal reports of folks categorically voting against Obama because he's black, I've yet to hear a black voter say she couldn't vote for Hillary--under any circumstance--because she's white. Part of that is function of numbers--there have been way more white candidates than black. But white Democrats rarely have to worry about being able to attract the black vote when running for national or state-wide office, it's black Dems who have to worry about the white vote. The lone exceptions are in mayoral races in big cities where whites are a minority. [N]ationally, white Democrats haven't worried about the black vote in probably half a century.

Furthermore, the black support of Obama hasn't been knee-jerk. Whereas Obama would likely never have competed for the white vote in West Virginia, Hillary actually was competing for the black vote in several states. This Time story, beginning with the phrase "There is no doubt Barack Obama can appeal to white audiences," (Oh how things--or media narratives--quickly change), goes on to note the reverence black women hold for Hillary Clinton, and shows Clinton's support among blacks as nearly DOUBLE Barack Obama's. [..]

Moderates aren't arguing to pull out of Iraq tomorrow.

Moderates aren't arguing that the government should pay for everyone's health care.

Moderates aren't arguing that we should redistribute wealth in this country.

Sad to say that there are still people in America who will not vote for a person because they are black. I don't think they are anything but a minority, but they will be enough to push the win to McCain.

au1929 wrote:

Revel

Am i to understand that a black voting for Obama because of his race is not racism but a white not voting for him because of his race is?

Those black voters have voted for white candidates numerous times before. And it's not like they'd vote for any black guy over a white man: see Sharpton, Al.

On the other hand, there seem to be a fair number of whites who will never vote for any black person.

Revel

Am i to understand that a black voting for Obama because of his race is not racism but a white not voting for him because of his race is? That revel is a load of crap. Racism is racism whether it be white or black.