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Obama's electability

 
 
au1929
 
Reply Wed 21 May, 2008 10:16 am
Based upon a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being a certantcy. What do you believe is Obama's chance of being elected to the presidency?
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Type: Discussion • Score: 0 • Views: 18,345 • Replies: 485
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 May, 2008 10:20 am
Re: Obama's electability
au1929 wrote:
Based upon a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being a certantcy. What do you believe is Obama's chance of being elected to the presidency?


8.5

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
engineer
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 May, 2008 10:21 am
8.0
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 May, 2008 10:25 am
Barring unforseen developments -- just extrapolating from info we have now -- I'll go ahead and say 9.
0 Replies
 
Brand X
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 May, 2008 10:26 am
None
0 Replies
 
woiyo
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 May, 2008 10:28 am
Five
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 May, 2008 12:38 pm
woiyo wrote:
Five


I think I will ditto that, but the odds will be in a big state of flux until November, and will depend on a whole host of factors, the economy, the war, and the unpredictability of Obama.

But Obama could have more shoes to drop, and right now he is getting all the publicity. As we near the election, McCain will again get his face time, and everyone knows at least McCain loves the country.

It hinges on turnout, both Republican for McCain, and for all the young people that are now oohing and ahing over Obama. Will his celebrity status translate into votes in the general? And will most of the Clinton supporters hold their nose to vote Democratic or McCain.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 May, 2008 12:40 pm
okie wrote:
woiyo wrote:
Five


I think I will ditto that, but the odds will be in a big state of flux until November, and will depend on a whole host of factors, the economy, the war, and the unpredictability of Obama.

But Obama could have more shoes to drop, and right now he is getting all the publicity. As we near the election, McCain will again get his face time, and everyone knows at least McCain loves the country.

It hinges on turnout, both Republican for McCain, and for all the young people that are now oohing and ahing over Obama. Will his celebrity status translate into votes in the general? And will most of the Clinton supporters hold their nose to vote Democratic or McCain.


Everyone knows Obama loves his country as well.

Jeez

You forget that about 10% of the Republican party is going to vote for... Mr. Ron Paul.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 May, 2008 12:46 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:

Everyone knows Obama loves his country as well.

Cycloptichorn

Some people may, but not everyone as in McCain's case. This is not a snide remark, just a valid observation in regard to degree of certainty.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 May, 2008 12:54 pm
okie wrote:
Cycloptichorn wrote:

Everyone knows Obama loves his country as well.

Cycloptichorn

Some people may, but not everyone as in McCain's case. This is not a snide remark, just a valid observation in regard to degree of certainty.


Actually, it's not a valid observation.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
woiyo
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 May, 2008 01:25 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
okie wrote:
woiyo wrote:
Five


I think I will ditto that, but the odds will be in a big state of flux until November, and will depend on a whole host of factors, the economy, the war, and the unpredictability of Obama.

But Obama could have more shoes to drop, and right now he is getting all the publicity. As we near the election, McCain will again get his face time, and everyone knows at least McCain loves the country.

It hinges on turnout, both Republican for McCain, and for all the young people that are now oohing and ahing over Obama. Will his celebrity status translate into votes in the general? And will most of the Clinton supporters hold their nose to vote Democratic or McCain.


Everyone knows Obama loves his country as well.

Jeez

You forget that about 10% of the Republican party is going to vote for... Mr. Ron Paul.

Cycloptichorn


Some Clinton backers will vote for McCain. Some Democrats may vote for Nader. Some may stay home.
0 Replies
 
Brand X
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 May, 2008 01:31 pm
Re: Obama's electability
Cycloptichorn wrote:
au1929 wrote:
Based upon a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being a certantcy. What do you believe is Obama's chance of being elected to the presidency?


8.5

Cycloptichorn


8.5?

All the talking smack you do daily and 8.5 is the best you can do? Laughing

You hold your ground with all the tenacity of the offspring of a cross between a rabid bulldog and Roxxxanne... and are so sure of all your info, blah blah blah...and and have repeatedly asserted Obama's win and you post a 8.5?

You spineless worm. Laughing
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 May, 2008 02:20 pm
Re: Obama's electability
Brand X wrote:
Cycloptichorn wrote:
au1929 wrote:
Based upon a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being a certantcy. What do you believe is Obama's chance of being elected to the presidency?


8.5

Cycloptichorn


8.5?

All the talking smack you do daily and 8.5 is the best you can do? Laughing

You hold your ground with all the tenacity of the offspring of a cross between a rabid bulldog and Roxxxanne... and are so sure of all your info, blah blah blah...and and have repeatedly asserted Obama's win and you post a 8.5?

You spineless worm. Laughing


Yup, 8.5.

Certainly much closer to the truth then someone's 'zero'

I still maintain that you, Brand X, are afraid Obama's going to win. You know in your heart that he's going to beat McCain.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Brand X
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 May, 2008 02:38 pm
Re: Obama's electability
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Brand X wrote:
Cycloptichorn wrote:
au1929 wrote:
Based upon a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being a certantcy. What do you believe is Obama's chance of being elected to the presidency?


8.5

Cycloptichorn


8.5?

All the talking smack you do daily and 8.5 is the best you can do? Laughing

You hold your ground with all the tenacity of the offspring of a cross between a rabid bulldog and Roxxxanne... and are so sure of all your info, blah blah blah...and and have repeatedly asserted Obama's win and you post a 8.5?

You spineless worm. Laughing


Yup, 8.5.

Certainly much closer to the truth then someone's 'zero'

I still maintain that you, Brand X, are afraid Obama's going to win. You know in your heart that he's going to beat McCain.

Cycloptichorn


This was a weak weak weak deflection you made.

BTW, what should I be afraid of if Obama should win...I mean being that you insist I'm afraid and all. Also show me where I've thrown my support to McGaffe.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 May, 2008 02:49 pm
Re: Obama's electability
Brand X wrote:
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Brand X wrote:
Cycloptichorn wrote:
au1929 wrote:
Based upon a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being a certantcy. What do you believe is Obama's chance of being elected to the presidency?


8.5

Cycloptichorn


8.5?

All the talking smack you do daily and 8.5 is the best you can do? Laughing

You hold your ground with all the tenacity of the offspring of a cross between a rabid bulldog and Roxxxanne... and are so sure of all your info, blah blah blah...and and have repeatedly asserted Obama's win and you post a 8.5?

You spineless worm. Laughing


Yup, 8.5.

Certainly much closer to the truth then someone's 'zero'

I still maintain that you, Brand X, are afraid Obama's going to win. You know in your heart that he's going to beat McCain.

Cycloptichorn


This was a weak weak weak deflection you made.

BTW, what should I be afraid of if Obama should win...I mean being that you insist I'm afraid and all. Also show me where I've thrown my support to McGaffe.


No, I think I got it pretty much right the first time about you. You don't post on here for months and months, and once Obama was assured to win the nomination, come back and start talking trash about him in every thread ya can; that's not a sign of confidence. Nope.

Now, I'm not personally sure what you're afraid of, considering what a fine president he would make; but you're displaying the signs of fear, and trying to hide it under a thin veneer of snark. Not fooling anyone though.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Brand X
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 May, 2008 02:55 pm
Re: Obama's electability
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Brand X wrote:
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Brand X wrote:
Cycloptichorn wrote:
au1929 wrote:
Based upon a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being a certantcy. What do you believe is Obama's chance of being elected to the presidency?


8.5

Cycloptichorn


8.5?

All the talking smack you do daily and 8.5 is the best you can do? Laughing

You hold your ground with all the tenacity of the offspring of a cross between a rabid bulldog and Roxxxanne... and are so sure of all your info, blah blah blah...and and have repeatedly asserted Obama's win and you post a 8.5?

You spineless worm. Laughing


Yup, 8.5.

Certainly much closer to the truth then someone's 'zero'

I still maintain that you, Brand X, are afraid Obama's going to win. You know in your heart that he's going to beat McCain.

Cycloptichorn


This was a weak weak weak deflection you made.

BTW, what should I be afraid of if Obama should win...I mean being that you insist I'm afraid and all. Also show me where I've thrown my support to McGaffe.


No, I think I got it pretty much right the first time about you. You don't post on here for months and months, and once Obama was assured to win the nomination, come back and start talking trash about him in every thread ya can; that's not a sign of confidence. Nope.

Now, I'm not personally sure what you're afraid of, considering what a fine president he would make; but you're displaying the signs of fear, and trying to hide it under a thin veneer of snark. Not fooling anyone though.

Cycloptichorn


I don't post here all that regularly, that's the only thing you've gotten right.

I lurk and read daily and when I have my opinions formed I post.

So sue me.

You're 8.5 says plenty about you and your fears though.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 May, 2008 03:00 pm
What am I afraid of? Specifically. For I tell you with perfect confidence that Obama is favored to win the election this Fall, and has many advantages coming into the race, not the least of which being his large monetary advantage and highly mobilized volunteer base; two things John McCain not only lacks at this time, but will never have, ever.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
H2O MAN
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 May, 2008 03:07 pm
- 2.5
0 Replies
 
real life
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 May, 2008 03:36 pm
6.5

American Presidential politics has a long tradition of awarding the Presidency based on a sense of entitlement

'The Ds have had it for x years , it's the Rs turn'

'The Rs have had it for x years, it's the Ds turn'

This feeling is usually manifested by those described as 'moderate' , meaning they have few or no real political convictions. They are driven mostly by appearances and their sense of 'fairness' in letting each take their turn every so often.

Many of these were the Perot voters of a few years ago , who felt that both[/i] parties had had a fair chance and failed , and now it's someone else's turn. They really didn't care much who. That's why someone as odd as Perot was accepted with so little discernment, not once, but twice.
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 May, 2008 09:16 pm
Good question

Answer: 4.0

Obama is a big time liberal.

Clearly Americans are disillusioned with Republicans but this doesn't mean they are ready to swing all the way to the Left.

A left of center Democrat would have an 8.0 chance of winning.

Obama can be beaten on the basis of politics, but McCain will also have the unfortunate (and for him undesired) advantage that Obama is black.

When Obama loses in November I would love to be able to assert that it was a rejection of the left (and to a large extent it will be) but it will also be an issue of race.

Sad to say that there are still people in America who will not vote for a person because they are black. I don't think they are anything but a minority, but they will be enough to push the win to McCain.

I would love to see a black president to prove we have gotten past the race issue, but not enough to hope that a black leftist wins.
0 Replies
 
 

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