Fundamentals Favor Dems
ead Part I from March 26 here, wherein the economic news and Democratic registration are cited as fundamentals that the Republicans and Iraq war booster John McCain will need to battle against, while McCain hugs Bush to death. These fundamentals are so much more important than meaningless head-to-head polls this early out.
And the latest from ABC/WaPo is, if anything, worse for the GOP.
The public's ratings of the national economy continue to sour, with assessments deteriorating faster than at any point in Washington Post-ABC News polling. Views on the Iraq war have also turned more negative, with six in 10 now rejecting the notion that the United States needs to win there to effectively battle terrorism.
The economy and the Iraq war are the top two issues on voters' minds, according to the new Post-ABC poll, and worsening opinions of both may dampen GOP hopes for the November elections.
Nine in 10 Americans now give the economy a negative rating, with a majority saying it is in "poor" shape, the most to say so in more than 15 years. And the sense that things are bad has spread swiftly. The percentage who hold a negative view of the economy is up 33 points over the past year, and the percentage who rate the economy "poor" has increased 13 points in the past two months. That is the quickest 60-day decline since The Post and ABC started asking the question, in 1985.
Views of the Iraq war have dipped as well. Now, more than six in 10 say that the conflict is not integral to the success of U.S. anti-terrorism efforts. That is the most people to reject what is one of the Bush administration's central contentions and a core part of presumed GOP presidential nominee John McCain's stand on the issue.[my bold]
A bit more on Iraq:
On several measures, the poll finds Republicans inching away from support for the war. Among them, a sense that progress in Iraq has stalled has increased 13 points from early March, and the percentages who prefer withdrawing troops over risking more casualties (30 percent) and who think that the battle against terrorism can be a success without victory in Iraq (39 percent) are each at new highs.
The percentages of Democrats and independents advocating withdrawal and seeing Iraq as distinct from the U.S. terrorism fight are also at or near high marks. And three-quarters of Democrats and nearly six in 10 independents do not see significant progress in Iraq.
Remember, for all the bloviating about "the surge is working", Americans have viewed Iraq as a mistaken venture for months verging on years (this poll had "not worth it" at 58% in Jan '07), and half the country strongly disapproves of Republican leader Bush. The issue is what to do about it, and anything that highlights the fools and knaves who got us there is a strong reminder of what's at stake in this election (hello, ABC News? Pay attention to your own poll!)
The Bush economy is going to strangle McCain while Iraq stabs him in the heart, and that's true for downticket Republicans as well. People who read too much into today's polling have to understand that politics isn't stagnant, and we are not locked into anything in April of an election year before the Democrats have a formal nominee.
Oh, I'm sorry. I do apologize. The difference between political coverage on the blogs compared to the broadcast media is downright embarrassing. Now let's get back to the important questions, like what's Barack's favorite tree and Hillary's pick for campaign song.