@okie,
That Greenspan kept the cost of money too low for too long is well accepted hindsight. At some point we will probably all be able to look back and say the same thing of Ben Bernacke (or, worse, his successor). It is notoriously hard for the Fed to predict the exact correct moment to reign in the money supply by increasing its rates. This is not news to anyone. Add this to the fact that the pressure for easy money has both a political and Wall Street imperative to its nature. Increased Fed rates make government borrowing more expensive thereby necessitating the increase in the federal deficit or ditto in tax rates. More expensive money slows capital investment on Wall Street thereby putting a cap on stock prices in addition to other business realities that slow the economy. So the Fed is reluctant to slow the economy too soon, especially in the latest case of the last recession which we are slowly coming out of (at least according to the latest growth figures).
In a 'pure' market system a Fed letting us "stay too long at the fair" might produce cycles but they would not have the whip saw effect that we have seen them produce in the last 20-30 years. The difference is explained by the ever increasing involvement of government in the economy. The source of the latest financial meltdown is rooted in legislation adopted in the Carter administration known as the CRA (Community Reinvestment Act) which was originally passed to encourage banks to loan to locals and to end the practice of 'redlining' *. This well intentioned law was then used by leftist groups such as ACORN** to force local banks to drop discriminatory practices against certain members of the community. The arm twisting was facilitated by another government agency's regulation power over the banks and their ability to expand their businesses. As good as this sounds, however, one of the discriminatory practices the banks had to cease was due diligence towards the ability of the lendees to actually pay back the loan. But with securitization of the loans and Fannie and Freddie given increasing latitude to buy up the mortgages by the comedy team of Dodd-Frank, Americans (and the world) were well on their way to the great recession.
This explanation leaves out many details but some say the banks or Wall Street greed was a contributing factor. The truth is greed was not so much a contributing factor as it was, and is and will always be, a constant. The main causal factor was not human behavior which investors wisely include in their calculus, it was government actions that promoted such behavior to the point of a bursting bubble. Let's face it; if we want to reduce the unintended consequences of government intervention perhaps we should tax it. After all, when you tax something you get less of it. However, we could just simply insist on smaller government with the happy side effect of less government intervention.
Quote:I was assigned was to assess the potential of certain mineral exploration possibilities in Latin American countries. It was a very tough project, indeed, and one of the primary considerations or conclusions of the report I submitted was the political situation and stability in each country, which overshadowed the actual geological potential in many ways, and which was actually more difficult to predict in terms of future impact on any exploration efforts we might have initiated.
One could ask what effect Sarbanes-Oxley has had on the similar analysis of those who would start businesses in the U.S. but then the significant decrease in IPO's tells us something. But even more so, what would your analysis yield to inform your superiors regarding the business/political climate formed from the present U.S. administration's demonstrated politics? The administration's motto to business has been amply demonstrated: "If you are not at the table, you are on the menu”.
But even the Business Roundtable has started seeing the folly of trying to appease the liberal anti-business Obama Administration. For those on this thread who wish to employ the old "the other party was worse/just as bad argument you surely can see the beauty of limiting their influence, via governmental powers, to a minimum.
*
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redlining
**
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_of_Community_Organizations_for_Reform_Now
JM