55
   

AMERICAN CONSERVATISM IN 2008 AND BEYOND

 
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Apr, 2009 11:11 am
@ican711nm,
Quote:
In particular, both budgets include the costs of USA military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq.


Bush's budgets specifically did not include this information. Don't you recall that the war was funded through other means every year?

Cycloptichorn
Diest TKO
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Apr, 2009 11:13 am
@Foxfyre,
If peace is what you wanted you would have just admitted you were wrong and apologized. Your ego is more important than peace. You want me to clean your mess. I won't.

You don't like having this responsibility.

5

T
K
O
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Apr, 2009 11:21 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Could you give us a credible link for your opinion on that? Are you sure? Requests for additional appropriations are not necessarily outside the budget though in all areas of government, appropriations are likely to deviate and change around the broad general areas outlined in the overall budget. Remember that the budget authorizes no expenditures at all. Only the omnibus appropriations bills and supplementals do that. But I do believe it requires a separate action to exceed the overall budget and I don't think that was the case during the Bush administration except possibly to deal with 9/11 and I'm not sure that they exceeded the budget to deploy the attack on Afghanistan.

http://cbo.gov/ftpdocs/89xx/doc8971/02-11-WarCosts_Letter.pdf
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Apr, 2009 11:45 am
Scott Rasmussen decided to write his own essay this week rather than look to others for analysis of the current pulse of the nation. I think all MACs should read this and give it careful consideration. It hits on virtually all the themes we have been touching on during the course of this thread right up to this morning.

Your thoughts on it would be appreciated.

Quote:
Is The Beltway GOP Irrelevant?
An Analysis By Scott Rasmussen
Monday, April 27, 2009

To be relevant in politics, you need either formal power or a lot of people willing to follow your lead. The governing Republicans in the nation’s capital have lost both on their continuing path to irrelevance.

The disconnect between D.C. Republicans and Republicans throughout the country has been growing for nearly 20 years, but it became more intense and noticeable during the waning years of the Bush administration.

Perhaps the final straw was the $700 billion bank bailout plan pushed through Congress last fall despite strong voter opposition. For all the furor unleashed this spring by congressional Republicans about President Obama’s $787 billion stimulus plan, the Bush-era bailouts last fall were approved with virtually no advance notice and no guidelines as to how the money would be spent. Looking back, most voters and nearly eight-out-of-10 Republicans now believe the bailouts were a bad idea.

The April 15 “tea party” protests, viewed favorably by 51% of Americans, were fueled as much by anger at the bailouts as anything else. Many Inside-the-Beltway Republicans chose to distance themselves from the events, and many tea party participants were happy to express their anger at both Beltway Republicans and Democrats.

The bailouts came on top of earlier doubts. Many Republicans had expressed concern about the growth of government spending throughout the Bush years. Then there was the immigration issue. On that topic, the Bush team championed a bill that was even less popular than the bailouts. Eventually, despite strong bipartisan support in Congress, the Senate surrendered to public opinion and failed to pass the Bush-backed reform. Beltway Republicans just didn't recognize the large gap between Mainstream American and the Political Class on this issue and assumed that those angry about it are angry at the immigrants. In fact, data shows that the anger is directed primarily at the federal government.

The disconnect between the Republican base and Beltway Republicans also can be seen in the recent history of presidential nominations. In the 2008 campaign, Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate, was seen by voters as more likely to deliver tax cuts than Republican nominee John McCain. By the way, Bill Clinton’s victories in the 1990s also followed a belief that he was more likely to deliver tax cuts than his GOP opponent. It’s hard to imagine how the party of Ronald Reagan could let that happen, but it did.

The trend began in 1988 when the first President Bush was elected on the strength of Reagan’s record. Once safely in office, Bush appeared to forget what it was he said after asking voters to read his lips, and he ended up governing with a fiscal policy that was more like Bill Clinton’s than Ronald Reagan’s. By 1992, the Republican share of the presidential vote fell to 37%, a 22-point decline from Reagan’s total eight years earlier.

In 1996, the GOP nominated Bob Dole, an honorable man and a capable legislator, but he was also a man famously described as having never met a tax he didn’t hike. Dole could only pick up 41% of the vote.

Then, in 2000, the second George Bush was nominated in large part on the strength of his inherited name recognition and network. While he learned from his father’s mistake about tax cuts, he was unable to connect that to a larger purpose. By the end of Bush’s second term, the war in Iraq had dragged down the GOP, and Beltway Republicans became identified as the party of big business. That’s not a good place to be when 70% of Americans view big business and big government on the same team working against the interests of consumers and investors.

The gap between Beltway Republicans and the Republican base is part of a wider gap between the Mainstream and the Political Class. On many issues, the gap between Mainstream Americans and the Political Class is bigger than the gap between Mainstream Republicans and Mainstream Democrats.

But Political Class Democrats control Congress and the White House while their GOP counterparts have little in the way of power and influence to overcome the disconnect with their base. One immediate result of this is that senior senators like Arlen Specter and John McCain now are facing primary challenges. Other challenges may follow. It used to be possible for Republicans in Washington to argue that they needed someone like Specter or McCain to hang on to the majority but no longer.

Look for the Republican Party to sink further into irrelevancy as long as its key players insist on hanging around Congress or K Street for their ideas. The future for the GOP is beyond the Beltway.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_scott_rasmussen/is_the_beltway_gop_irrelevant
cicerone imposter
 
  2  
Reply Tue 28 Apr, 2009 11:55 am
@Foxfyre,
Foxie, Your use of the words "honorable and reasonable" are misused by you; you have no idea or understanding of those words when you use them. It's really laughable, contrite, and meaningless.
0 Replies
 
Lightwizard
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Apr, 2009 12:09 pm
"MAC's" are becoming as obsolete as The Big Mac.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Apr, 2009 12:13 pm
@Lightwizard,
Yup. Considering that Arlen Specter was a senior senator, that makes real waves in the GOP; kinda like a shock and awe.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Apr, 2009 12:16 pm
@Lightwizard,
Not according to the polls. We are in the majority and probably are increasing our numbers as the 'political class' continues to ignore the anger that is being created out here in the rest of the world:

Featured in Rasussen today:

41% Favor Government Health Insurance Plan, 44% Opposed
54% Say Chrysler Likely to Be Profitable Once More
Most Florida Voters Might Vote for Crist in 2010 Senate Election
Support for Free Market Economy Up Seven Points Since December
58% Oppose Further Investigation of U.S. Torture Allegations
Republicans Give Romney Edge Over Gingrich
70% Say Big Government and Big Business On the Same Team

Americans continue to look at the massive bailout programs initiated during the Bush years as bad for the nation. Most continue to see deficit reduction as the most important of the budgetary priorities outlined by Obama. Americans consistently view tax cuts as good for the economy and government spending increases as bad.

On top of all that, there’s the view shared by most Americans that no matter how bad things are, Congress can make them worse. Without a sense of economic urgency, that skepticism will slow even the most noble and popular of new programs.

53% Say Next President Likely To Be A Republican

Republicans Give Romney Edge Over Gingrich

Voters Grow More Negative About America’s Long-Term Prospects

Most Florida Voters Might Vote for Crist in 2010 Senate Election

58% Oppose Further Investigation of U.S. Torture Allegations

Pennsylvania Senate Primary: Toomey 51% Specter 30%

cicerone imposter
 
  2  
Reply Tue 28 Apr, 2009 12:26 pm
@Foxfyre,
I trust the Gallup Poll more than CBS (but, that's me):

Quote:
Gallup Poll: Majority Of Americans Favor Investigation Of Bush Administration For Torture Program

Posted By The GTL™ On April 27, 2009 @ 9:35 pm In Corruption, Crime, Federal Agencies, Politics, President Bush, President Obama, Terrorism, Think, Vice President Cheney | 4 Comments

51% Say Bring On The Government Investigations…

The Cheney Bush torture team needs to be investigated by the government according to Gallup where the majority of Americans surveyed said they would like to see torture investigations of the Bush administrationI know, I know, it’s just “torture”, right? Or not EVEN torture if you are of the far-right mentality. Seems like there might be a non-partisan push for the truth, however, according to Gallup…

This whole torture issue reminds me of when I was extremely young; about in the first grade if I recall correctly " true story, by the way. For four years, this kid named “Chuck” used to stay past his own bus stop after school just so he could depart the bus at my bus stop after declaring to everybody including myself that he intended to kick my butt. This was at least a bi-monthly occurrance, by the way.

I’d be shaking in my shoes, move to the front of the bus while “Chuck” would move up with me in the seat either across from me or directly behind me with his evil grin. As the bus would grind to a stop, I’d move toward the doors and feel him right behind me, ready to begin my useless sprint as all the other kids would be giggling. Doors opened, I ran like the wind only to be tackled soon after while “Chuck” beat on me while I tried to cover myself from his blows, lying on my stomache. Every time, I would have to tell him I was a “girl” before he would stop beating on me. Sometimes, I’d have to say it five or more times " however many times it would take for “Chuck” to become bored enough to stop beating on me.

One day, in or about the fifth grade, “Chuck” had managed to roll me over and give me a bloody nose, a bleeding lower lip and a black eye. My dad asked me what in the hell happened to me and that was the first time I had admitted to him (mom was standing by) what had been happening to me for years. Mom, of course, wanted to call “Chuck’s” parents while dear ole’ Dad was screaming “BULL$HIT!!! Next time he pulls that crap, you turn around, hold up your dukes, and punch him right in the nose so he’ll quit TORTURING you like that. Dad is a Korean War veteran, by the way, and he knows torture when he sees it.

I tried to explain to Dad how “Chuck” would simply continue to kick my butt, even if I did nail him in the nose, and then he’d kick my butt even worse and would STILL force me to call myself a “girl” while a half a dozen other kids stood around laughing at me. Dad assured me sooner or later, “Chuck” would move on and find somebody else to pick on; somebody who wouldn’t give him a bloody nose or a black eye everytime he TORTURED me and made me say things just to ease the pain being INFLICTED upon me.

Next day, in class, I announced to my classmates including “Chuck” that I would be getting off at his bus stop that day and I would be forcing “Chuck” to admit he was a girl and anybody who would like to come along and see it happen was more than welcome to. “Chuck”, of course, grinned his evil grin and taunted me to bring it on. I turned to him and stared him right in the eyes in front of God and everyone and said something like, “Are you ready to admit you wear panty hose, girly-girl? If so, you can just do it right here, right now and I’ll spare you the worse butt-kicking in your life.” “Chuck’s” grin got bigger and bigger but it had a different look to it this time " I saw no happiness, I saw sheer nervousness as the teacher intervened to break up all of the laughing now going on inside the classroom.

The bell rung, and I filed onto the school bus as all the other kids were buzzing and whispering and “Chuck” had that same evil grin on his face. I was scared to death " I just knew this was going to be the day I would be meeting Jesus but damn it, I was going to go out with a “bang” and this kid would NEVER make me say I was a “girl” again, not even if he picked up a rock and started banging on my head with it. I’d rather die than ever do that again in front of witnesses. As we neared “Chuck’s” bus stop, half the bus cleared to watch. This time, however; I didn’t run. I stood there with (most likely a very inconvincing) grin, daring “Chucky-Chucky” to come and get his butt-kicking… “Come on, girly-boy " no more Mr. Nice Guy for you!”, I taunted.

Chuck didn’t look so brave this time. All the other kids it seemed to be goading him on since, of course, “Chuck” was the school bully and they were just sure he was about to pound me into kitty-litter again, as he had become famous for doing over the years. “Chuck” began nervously, carefully approaching me and telling me I’d better start running or he was going to be unmerciful " it wouldn’t matter what words I would choose to degrade myself, the beating wouldn’t stop. So I did. I ran right toward “Chuck” and hit him so hard in the nose, one of his shoes literally came off of his foot as he did a backflip and landed on his upper back.

I flailed and flailed on him, surprised at how easy it really was to kick this kid’s butt. I told him to call himself a “girly-girl” and I’d stop. He kept rolling over on his stomache to guard against my blows to his head, I kept rolling him back over and punching him in the throat and the face until he did just that " “Stop! Stop! I am a girly-girl! Please stop!!!” Stop I did. I had successfully tortured “Chuck”. He had it coming to him but facts are facts " I tortured him or he’d have never admitted to such a degrading lie about himself. I could relate.

That wasn’t the end between “Chuck” and myself, by the way. I had one more year left at that school before my family moved away to Alaska where I eventually attended school with both of the Palins (i.e., Sarah Heath in Wasilla and Todd Palin in Glennallen). It turned out dear ole’ Dad was right " “Chuck” went on to find other people to bully; kids whom, like myself, were afraid to avoid “Chuck’s” TORTURE fetish and I just couldn’t help myself " everytime I caught him in the act, I felt an OBLIGATION to torture “Chuck” right in front of his chosen victims so they could laugh along with me as he would eventually admit to everybody in the schoolyard that he was indeed a “girly-girl” against his best wishes, hopes and dreams. It seemed too easy to TORTURE people; to get them to utter untrue statements, at least to me, having experience as both the TORTURED and the TORTURER. In retrospect, I’m not sure which one of the two positions felt the worse, having been plagued with a concience after all.

I don’t know whatever happened to “Chuck”, he’s probably a felon and/or in prison at the moment but of course we all know what happened to my other two classmates aforementioned " Sarah Heath-Palin and Todd Palin. They’re not in jail of course and I’m hoping I’m wrong about “Chuck”.

***
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  2  
Reply Tue 28 Apr, 2009 12:31 pm
@Foxfyre,
This one even funnier, because the majority of conservatives favor universal health care.

Quote:
Poll shows many Republicans favor universal healthcare, gays in military
By Aaron Blake
Posted: 06/28/07 07:10 PM [ET]
A large nationwide poll of Republican voters shows that an increasing number consider themselves conservative, that about half favor universal healthcare and allowing gays in the military, and that the vast majority say spreading democracy shouldn’t be the United States’ top foreign policy goal.

The poll, conducted by GOP consultant Tony Fabrizio 10 years after he conducted a similar study, also casts some doubts on the conventional wisdom about moral-issues voters, thought to be the key constituency for President Bush in 2004. It showed that the group hasn’t grown significantly in recent years and is surprisingly willing to vote for former New York
Mayor Rudy Giuliani despite his differences with it on social and moral issues.


The survey of 2,000 self-described Republican voters, titled “The Elephant Looks in the Mirror 10 Years Later,” showed that 71 percent consider themselves conservative, a 16 percent increase over the 1997 numbers.

Fifty-one percent of the GOPers said universal healthcare coverage should be a right of every American, and 49 percent favored allowing gays and lesbians to serve openly in the military.


Looks like MACs are disappearing from the landscape very quickly.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  2  
Reply Tue 28 Apr, 2009 12:33 pm
@Foxfyre,
And from the WSJ on spending by Obama:

Quote:
By LAURA MECKLER

WASHINGTON -- Americans support the economic-stimulus plan being pushed by President-elect Barack Obama but worry the government will spend too much money and widen the budget deficit, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found.

Overall, the poll found strong public backing for the stimulus plan and its major planks, particularly proposals to spend more federal money to create jobs.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Apr, 2009 12:34 pm
Ras' numbers don't jive with any other polling firm, unfortunately - for Republicans, that is. It is definitely a partisan polling firm and should be viewed that way.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Apr, 2009 12:36 pm
But in 2006 and 2008 Rasmussen (and Pew) beat everybody. Gallup doesn't do so hot, probably because it teams up with mostly leftwing media outlets that write the questions. CNN at least came in at #6:

Quote:
Poll Accuracy in the 2008 Presidential Election"Initial Report, November 5, 2008"
Costas Panagopoulos, Ph.D.
Department of Political Science
Fordham University
For inquiries: cpanagopoulo@fordham.edu or (917) 405-9069

For all the derision directed toward pre-election polling, the final poll estimates were not
far off from the actual nationwide voteshares for the two candidates. On average, preelection
polls from 23 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of
7.52 percentage points on Election Day, which is only about 1.37 percentage points away
from the current estimate of a 6.15-point Obama margin in the national popular vote.

Following the procedures proposed by Martin, Traugott and Kennedy (see Public Opinion
Quarterly, Fall 2006, pp. 342-369) to assess poll accuracy, I analyze poll estimates from
these 23 polling organizations. Four of these polls appear to have overestimated McCain
support (indicated with a * below), while most polls (17) overestimated Obama strength.

Pre-election projections for two organizations’ final polls"Rasmussen and Pew"were perfectly in agreement with the actual election result (**).

The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national preelection polls (as reported on pollster.com).

1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)
http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Apr, 2009 12:36 pm
That's only about the last election; what really matters is their over-all performance.
cicerone imposter
 
  2  
Reply Tue 28 Apr, 2009 12:44 pm
@cicerone imposter,
http://www.ncpp.org/

National Council of Public Polls
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Apr, 2009 01:12 pm
Here's another one that agrees with Rasmussen:

Quote:
Poll: Public Does Not Want Torture Probe
CBS News/N.Y. Times Survey: Most Say Waterboarding Is Torture, But Disagree With Calls For Congressional Investigation
April 27, 2009

(CBS) The recent release of detailed memos describing harsh interrogation techniques used on suspected terrorists under the Bush administration has fueled calls for a Congressional investigation.

But most Americans do not want an investigation, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/04/27/opinion/polls/main4972844.shtml
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Apr, 2009 01:21 pm
@Foxfyre,
Actually, there is a problem with your post Fox. Perhaps you didn't read this in it.
Quote:
which is only about 1.37 percentage points away
from the current estimate of a 6.15-point Obama margin in the national popular vote.

This was done prior to the final vote totals which takes more than one day. All absentee ballots must be counted as well as any provisional ballots.

The final vote totals show Obama with a 7.38% win. This means that Rasmussen wasn't the best one. In fact Rasmussen was off by 1.1% and too heavy for McCain.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president/
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Apr, 2009 01:27 pm
Quote:
The Wall Street Journal in February

Recent polls from Rasmussen , Gallup and Pew Rezearch show a nation divided by the stimulus package. In the Gallup poll, 51% of respondent said the economic stimulus was critically important. Meanwhile, Rasmussen finds that 44% of people agree with President Obama’’s statement: ““If we do not move swiftly to pass the stimulus package in Congress, an economy that is already in crisis will be faced with catastrophe,”” while 41% disagree.
In Pew Research polling from Feb. 4-8, 51% of Americans who have heard about the $800 billion plan said it is a good idea, while 34% said it is a bad idea. That compares to 57% support and 22% opposition last month.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/02/09/no-stimulus-petition-illustrates-public-anger-over-plan/?mod=googlenews_wsj


Quote:
The Wall Street Journal in March

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that confidence in Obama is rapidly dropping. Obama’’s numbers have now dropped to the point that they are lower than President Bush in this point in 2001. His net approval rating was as low as +6% this week according to Rasmussen. The article points out multiple signs of trouble in the polling data:

A third strongly disapprove of Obama’’s performance.

Obama has lost nearly all Republican support and a large portion of Independant support.

Support is dropping more rapidly than other Presidents of the 20th and 21st centuries.

83% are concerned Obama’’s policies will not improve the economy.

82% are worried about the growing deficit.

78% are concerned about inflation.

69% are worried about Government’’s increasing role in the economy.

Less should have been spent on the stimulus according to a 3-to-1 margin.

Obama’’s budget is opposed by a 46% to 41% margin.

Voters reject Pelosi’’s idea of a second stimulus by a 2-to-1 margin.

The feeling is that the mortgage bailout will unfairly benefit the irresponsible by 48% to 36%.

45% do not have confidence in the direction Obama is taking.

Less than half suport increasing taxes for expanded health-insurance (17% less support than 1993).


Only 20% support the most recent bank bailout.

http://www.rwnj.org/2009/03/13/wsj-public-confidence-in-obama-dropping/
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Apr, 2009 01:33 pm
@Foxfyre,
Your above quote (March WSJ) (see your link) "reports" about an opinion in the Wall Street Journal.
0 Replies
 
wandeljw
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Apr, 2009 01:36 pm
@Foxfyre,
Interesting source, Foxfyre. Do you often use rwnj.org?
Quote:
Right Wing Nut Job is nothing more than a slur. I consider myself a Conservative, a term that actually has meaning. But since I do not believe in class warfare and wealth redistribution, some choose to throw the term “Right Wing Nut Job”. That’s where the name of this blog comes from.


 

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