AMERICAN CONSERVATISM IN 2008 AND BEYOND

Polling is at best an inexact sampling process of often limited applicability to the broad questions to which we casually apply them. Using poll results to forecast the future is even more problematic. Numerous U.S election results have confounded many pollsters, while the predictions of others have been confirmed. None has a consistent record for accuracy in such forecasts.

That is not to say they should be ignored. They are evidence, though by no means complete or sufficient, that should fit into the mosaic of data considered by one trying to make an accurate forecast.

My very strong impression is that dissatisfaction with the Democrats has grown substantially over the past two years and the last election result is good evidence confirming it. I suspect the President has and continues to suffer from this dissatisfaction. However, in his case there is as yet no clear attractive alternative in the public eye, and that protects his standing a great deal.

There are many issues at play in today's political scene and they don't always cut in coincident lines across the American political scene. I think the current situation is unusually complex and hard to forecast.

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

cicerone imposter wrote:

Quote:
Independents begin to edge away from President Obama: Politico

In a potentially alarming trend for the White House, independent voters are deserting President Barack Obama nationally and especially in key swing states, recent polls suggest.

Obama’s job approval rating hit a - still healthy - low of 56 percent in the Gallup Poll on Wednesday. And pollsters are debating whether Obama’s expansive and expensive policy proposals or the ground-level realities of a still-faltering economy are driving the falling numbers.

But a source of the shift appears to be independent voters, who seem to be responding to Republican complaints of excessive spending and government control.

I don't find this especially surprising; I've also been more critical of Obama during the past year.

Dude. That article is dated July 7th, 2009. It has no relevance to our current situation.

Just googling until you find something that sounds good, isn't proof of anything.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@georgeob1,

Quote:

However, in his case there is as yet no clear attractive alternative in the public eye, and that protects his standing a great deal.

This is a VERY generous way of saying, 'The public doesn't trust Republicans either.' And polling confirms that. Obama is currently trouncing Congressional Republicans on pretty much every issue and he is leading the current crop of Republican candidates in pretty much every poll.

I think a big problem with the position that many Republicans have taken, is that they think that dissatisfaction with Obama is equivalent to endorsement of their preferred policy choices. There's very little actual evidence to support this position.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

You are attacking something I didn't say.

I think you should also consider the outcomes of some hard fought issues in key states. Attitudes in Midwestern states, though deeply polarized, are shifting very far from their previously uncontested norms. The outcomes of the struggles over labor laws in Wisconsin and Ohio may well turn out to be harbingers of more like things to come. They have certainly aroused union supporters, but that is no surprise. Just a few years ago these issues wouldn't have arisen at all.

1 Reply

@georgeob1,

georgeob1 wrote:

You are attacking something I didn't say.

I think you should also consider the outcomes of some hard fought issues in key states. Attitudes in Midwestern states, though deeply polarized, are shifting very far from their previously uncontested norms. The outcomes of the struggles over labor laws in Wisconsin and Ohio may well turn out to be harbingers of more like things to come.

Well, what we're seeing in both WI and OH is the approval ratings of the governors tanking. In Michigan, the crazy right-wing governor is trying to declare 'financial martial law.' That's not going over very well either.

I don't think the 'struggles' in those states are over. Not even close. What has happened here is that the right wing worked hard to elect some VERY radical Conservative governors, who - as I said earlier - bought into their own bullshit and are now trying to ram through policies which will never fly in their states in the long run, because the truth is that these just aren't very Conservative places.

Quote:

They have certainly aroused union supporters, but that is no surprise. Just a few years ago these issues wouldn't have arisen at all.

That's because just a few years ago, the Republican party was much more moderate than it is today. What you are seeing is the result of increased radicalization on your side; not a shift in public opinion.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

Cycloptichorn wrote:

I don't think the 'struggles' in those states are over. Not even close. What has happened here is that the right wing worked hard to elect some VERY radical Conservative governors, who - as I said earlier - bought into their own bullshit and are now trying to ram through policies which will never fly in their states in the long run, because the truth is that these just aren't very Conservative places.
.....
That's because just a few years ago, the Republican party was much more moderate than it is today. What you are seeing is the result of increased radicalization on your side; not a shift in public opinion.

Cycloptichorn

An interesting, if entirely unfounded, speculation on your part. Considering the remarkable departure of these deeply contested issues from the long histories of these states, it is truly remarkable that the efforts succeeded. You should consider the possibility that you are whistling in the dark.

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

Is this current enough?

Quote:

By JENNIFER EPSTEIN | 3/9/11 12:52 PM EST

Independents’ approval of President Barack Obama has dropped sharply in the past month, a new poll suggests.

Obama’s approval rating among independents fell to 37 percent in a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Wednesday, down from 47 percent a month ago.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0311/50954.html#ixzz1GiORwZLY

1 Reply

@georgeob1,

georgeob1 wrote:

An interesting, if entirely unfounded, speculation on your part. Considering the remarkable departure of these deeply contested issues from the long histories of these states, it is truly remarkable that the efforts succeeded. You should consider the possibility that you are whistling in the dark.

LOL

Have you ever once considered such a thing yourself, George, with respect to your various pronouncements?

If you have evidence that public opinion supports your position on these issues, or that of the governors in question - present it. And please don't take the coward's route of saying 'the last election is evidence...' Otherwise, I'd be forced to conclude that you believe the 2008 election signaled the country was FOR all the things that Obama is for; after all, he won, handsomely, and to you that's evidence that his positions are supported by the public. And that continues to this day, because hey, he's still serving out his term. Right?

I won't hold my breath.

I can present plenty of data showing that the people of the states in question not only don't approve of the individual actions of the governors in question, the overall approval ratings of those governors has dropped precipitously. But I forget; you don't really believe in polls.

Cycloptichorn

0 Replies

@cicerone imposter,

cicerone imposter wrote:

Is this current enough?

Quote:
By JENNIFER EPSTEIN | 3/9/11 12:52 PM EST

Independents’ approval of President Barack Obama has dropped sharply in the past month, a new poll suggests.

Obama’s approval rating among independents fell to 37 percent in a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Wednesday, down from 47 percent a month ago.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0311/50954.html#ixzz1GiORwZLY

Yes, it is! If we're going to have the conversation, let's at least use current data.

Cycloptichorn

2 Replies

@Cycloptichorn,

Well, if there are many sources to show what I claim, it should not be necessary to show you updates unless they contradict what I said. You could have just as well done any search for "Obama losing independents." You'll get hundreds of hits. You can also search for "Obama gaining independents." You'll find many contradictions. I tend to believe he's losing them, because he lost me last year.

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

Perhaps the Republican Governors and legislatures in Ohio and Wisconsin aren't doomed after all.

I consider it very odd that you don't appear to take into account the fact that in both cases (Wisconsin & Ohio) the legislation to which you so strenuously object was passed in a democratic process. Surely that is evidence at least as significant as polling data.

Public attitudes towards candidates and policies do indeed shift. However, it is a bit early for you to conclude that the tide we saw in 2008 has reversed.

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

Quote:

I tend to believe he's losing them, because he lost me last year.

I highly doubt that. Are you telling me that you're going to vote for the Republican candidate in the next election? Or is this just a display of frustration?

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@georgeob1,

georgeob1 wrote:

Perhaps the Republican Governors and legislatures in Ohio and Wisconsin aren't doomed after all.

I consider it very odd that you don't appear to take into account the fact that in both cases (Wisconsin & Ohio) the legislation to which you so strenuously object was passed in a democratic process. Surely that is evidence at least as significant as polling data.

Legislation passed by legislators isn't indicative of public opinion that supports that legislation, George. Otherwise, I'm forced to conclude - once again - that you think Americans just love the Health Care bill that Obama had passed last cycle.

Your arguments aren't really accomplishing what you are looking to have them accomplish.

Quote:

Public attitudes towards candidates and policies do indeed shift. However, it is a bit early for you to conclude that the tide we saw in 2008 has reversed.

I think you ought to read that last sentence again, George Laughing

Cycloptichorn

0 Replies

@Cycloptichorn,

I don't know myself who I'll be voting for in the next election cycle. If the candidate happens to be a GOP, but meets most of what I consider to be a good candidate, they will get my vote. That also works if the opposite is true. I vote for the individual; not the party.

I'm not like most voters in this country that always votes party line. That's ignorant in my books.

2 Replies

@okie,

okie sees Willard Romney as a man with

Quote:

balanced judgement, and a temperament appropriate for a president.

Willard is an opportunist. He is a snob and more than a bit of cold, unapproachable prig.

0 Replies

@Cycloptichorn,

I don't think the MA health plan was successful. I could use medical attention right now but can not afford to pay the MA bill.

0 Replies

@okie,

Quote:

The primary source of Mormon hatred resides in the liberal press and liberal Democrats,

Totally wrong

0 Replies

@cicerone imposter,

You aren't alone in being critical of Obama. Revellette and I have both criticized him.

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

cicerone imposter wrote:

I don't know myself who I'll be voting for in the next election cycle. If the candidate happens to be a GOP, but meets most of what I consider to be a good candidate, they will get my vote. That also works if the opposite is true. I vote for the individual; not the party.

I'm not like most voters in this country that always votes party line. That's ignorant in my books.

My parents used to crow the same song, ci, and so did I when I first became a voter. I think that works for County sheriff and County Clerk, positions like that, but not folks sent to Washington. I have come to conclude the truth of the matter, that such a method of voting for national offices is not only naive, but also extremely ignorant of what politicians and parties actually do. In other words, the bottom line is that party affiliation means a whole lot more than you are giving credit. Even if a politician claims to stand on his own beliefs, It is obvious that for a newly elected congressperson going to Washingtion, they immediately find out that if they expect to have any political power there, such as committee positions, support in future elections, etc., they had better walk and vote the party line. This is especially true for Democrats. Yes, there are a few Blue Dog Democrats, but they have limited power at best. Most of the power resides with the old party hacks, such as Kennedy was, Robert Byrd, etc. etc.

Therefore, if you actually believe in conservative principles, you are far better off to vote for conservative Republicans, not Democrats, and if you favor a liberal agenda, you should support liberal Democrats. I would however make the observation that there are probably more independent thinking politicians on the Republican side than there are on the Democrat side. In fact, this makes it more difficult for Republicans to put together a unified agenda in Congress. Just my opinion.

1 Reply

@okie,

okie, It only means you have learned nothing except learning to bombast Obama and liberals. Your tiny brain shows up every day on these boards proclaiming one thing or another that makes no sense to anyone but i can and a few others. You learned nothing from your parents or the environment in which you live. Your lies and extremism on these boards only proves how misinformed you are about this world. You can't even remember recent history. You're a lost cause with no redeeming value to humanity or to this country. Get a life.

1 Reply

AMERICAN CONSERVATISM IN 2008 AND BEYOND

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