FreeDuck wrote:Foxfyre wrote:He had less name recognition a month ago when he was trailing Obama and Clinton in the polls? Wow. His advertising campaign must be really effective.

He went up in the hypothetical matchup when he became the presumptive nominee. I expect to see those numbers change again when the Democrats settle on a candidate.
McCain's biggest problem is that some of the hardcore in his party actually think that it will be better for the party if he loses so that they can field their own savior after 4 or 8 years of a Democrat in the whitehouse. If the social conservatives stay home, he loses. Obama's getting the independents and will probably get all the Democrats too. He may even steal some Republicans.
Anything is possible in politics. With Obama and McCain as the presumptive gladiators in the contest, it will depend on how the general election campaign plays out. If Obama in any way comes across as a wild eyed liberal fanatic determined to turn the Constitution and all of conservatism on its ear, most especially the courts, McCain could start looking really good to the conservative base.
If Obama doesn't, it is true the base might decide that in the long run, it is better for Obama to win and prove again the failures of liberalism and socialism to deliver on what the American people want most.
And it is possible that Obama will win on the strength of his convictions and will succeed enormously. But he is going to have to deliver something more substantive than great rhetoric to do that.