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My little politics blog

 
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 4 Feb, 2008 01:33 pm
It's good! One notable omission -- the role that luck played in his successful 2004 Senate bid as scandals claimed opponents. Some good anecdotes and quotes from family members, though.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 4 Feb, 2008 01:33 pm

That was a great article! Absolutely a must-read.

In the polls thread, all the numbers about young vs old, polling among Latinos, the persistent popularity of Hillary among older women, all of that can easily come to seem abstract, like you're just talking about categories of people. It's easy to come to generalised impressions of those categories too. This column makes the story comes alive, tells the story behind the numbers.

Plus, it's funny Smile

The Rich column was good too. It nicely summarises some of the main arguments that pulled me off the fence.
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 4 Feb, 2008 01:44 pm
I really liked that writer, yeah. Great voice.
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 4 Feb, 2008 02:31 pm
As Obama vs. McCain in the general election becomes more possible I keep thinking back to that spat they had in 2006 and how well Obama handled it. Here's a post I made about it:

http://www.able2know.org/forums/viewtopic.php?p=1923896#1923896

The photo from the post:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2006/02/09/PH2006020900520.jpg

Some more background from that whole episode:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uselections08/story/0,,2252418,00.html

(The last one is a new article.)
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 01:57 pm
Good post (what the heck do you call individual blog entries? I haven't gotten the hang of that yet) from Matt Bai on the positives and negatives of Obama and Hillary accepting their "Change vs. Experience" pigeonholes at the beginning of the race:

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/02/05/the-change-vs-experience-pitfall/#more-4118

I especially agreed with this:

Quote:
What's more, while Mr. Obama's advisers were right to think voters valued change over experience, they ignored the fact that a change candidate still has to put to rest questions about his experience if he wants voters to take a chance on him. Had they more forcefully challenged Mrs. Clinton's initial contention that she alone was ready to govern, they might not have had to spend the rest of the campaign trying to get past the idea that Mr. Obama isn't.
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 02:07 pm
sozobe wrote:
Good post (what the heck do you call individual blog entries? I haven't gotten the hang of that yet) from Matt Bai on the positives and negatives of Obama and Hillary accepting their "Change vs. Experience" pigeonholes at the beginning of the race:

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/02/05/the-change-vs-experience-pitfall/#more-4118

I especially agreed with this:

Quote:
What's more, while Mr. Obama's advisers were right to think voters valued change over experience, they ignored the fact that a change candidate still has to put to rest questions about his experience if he wants voters to take a chance on him. Had they more forcefully challenged Mrs. Clinton's initial contention that she alone was ready to govern, they might not have had to spend the rest of the campaign trying to get past the idea that Mr. Obama isn't.


Diaries, is what you call them, on a lot of the sites.

Obama's camp should say this:

Quote:
Do you know how you can tell who is a tough guy, and who isn't?

Tough guys don't need to remind you that they are tough.

Clinton's constant mantra of '35 years of experience' is a ploy to convince people that she actually has experience.

If she was really experienced, to the degree that she claims, she wouldn't need to mention it once.


Cycloptichorn
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 04:56 pm
"Feminist Ultimatums: Not In Our Name"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kimberle-crenshaw-and-eve-ensler/feminist-ultimatums-not-_b_85165.html

The end:

Quote:
For us, the choice at hand is actually quite simple. It is not about the woman candidate vs. the Black male candidate. It is about the candidate who works to dismantle the bomb, rather than drop it; the candidate who works to abolish the old paradigm of power, rather than covet and rise to its highest point; the candidate who seeks solutions and dialogue rather than retaliation and punishment.

As feminists our freedoms have been hard won and we'd like to think that we have learned from our mistakes along the way. The feminism we fought so hard for and benefited from was not to make us blind to the complexity, but to help us see beyond simple formulas and body politics.
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ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 05:15 pm
Makes me want to email my latina LA friends but I can predict how they'll vote.. lessee: M. Luisa, I figure she'll pick Huckabee; L & M, I figure both EW for Obama, or maybe a split, with one sister for Hillary. (I'll report back next time I visit.)
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Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 05:22 pm
Haven't clicked the link yet. Is that from the petition of 70 prominent feminists in New York who declared endorsement for Obama a few days ago?
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 05:24 pm
This one is just Eve Ensler and Kimberle Crenshaw (I don't know the latter).

I think Osso is referring to the "Mom, Obama and Me" one...
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ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 06:32 pm
I was. Dunno how that EW showed up!!!! I've been misspelling all day long. Must be that biocycles phenomenon so popular in the seventies...
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 08:31 am
Now that I have a decent connection again (for now anyway... nice connection, good connection, here have a cookie...) I'll start this up again:

Quote:
Gutierrez, an early Obama supporter, said the Obama campaign "didn't commit'' the level of resources to capture the Latino vote that it should have.

"That is a failure of running a national campaign. The person that we came to know that is on the cover of Newsweek and national magazines many times does not get to the household table where people are dealing with how you pay the mortgage," he said.

"At least 4 out of 10 Latinos do not get their opinion of public officials from English-speaking media," he pointed out.

"I do not go out there and hear Latinos using any kind of racism against Barack Obama," Gutierrez said. "That just didn't happen. Why don't we just assume that it was a failure of the campaign to see the need to communicate."
Forced to examine our views

To prove his point, Gutierrez pointed to New Mexico, where 43 percent of the registered voters are Latino. Late Wednesday, Obama was still in a dead heat with Clinton as votes were tallied.

In pondering how difficult it has been for Obama to attract the Hispanic vote, both Rangel and Gutierrez brought up Mayor Harold Washington's primary race against Jane Byrne and Richard Daley in 1983.

"Latinos did not come out in big numbers and vote for Harold Washington in the primary," Rangel noted. "But when the general election came around, Latinos backed the Democratic nominee. I would venture if Obama wins the nomination, Latinos will come out in big numbers for Barack."

Gutierrez also noted that when Washington ran in the general election, white voters moved to vote for Republican Bernie Epton, blacks rallied for Washington, and Latinos stayed with the Democratic Party, boosting Washington's Latino tally from 10 percent to 60 percent.

"They rejected the bigotry," Gutierrez said. "Those leaders who inspire hope allow us to overcome our innate bigotry and prejudices."


http://www.suntimes.com/news/mitchell/781607,CST-NWS-mitch07.article

I'm not sure about the opinionating around it, but grabbing it for the point about the Latino vote and Harold Washington. (Didn't do so well in the nominating round, but once he was the Dem nominee he did way better.)
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 08:55 am
Feingold's not ready to endorse anyone -- but he's giving them road maps:

http://www.madison.com/tct/news/271406
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 10:06 am
Individual opinions are individual opinions... their value when making large-scale predictions are pretty limited. But I see this stuff over and over and over and over and over again:

Quote:
That's part of Obama's crossover appeal, said George Kobitz of Covington, who drove across Lake Pontchartrain before dawn with his wife and a sign reading "Obamacan," signifying an Obama Republican. Obama has talked about trying to appeal to Republicans much the same way President Ronald Reagan garnered support from whole blocs of Democratic voters.

"I've been a Republican all my life and this Bush thing didn't go over very well. If it was just Clinton, I would stay a Republican and vote for (Arizona Sen. John) McCain, but Obama's about change," said Kobitz, who has sent several donations to Obama's campaign. "The Bush-Clinton era is over. We're sick of it."


http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2008/02/crowd_packs_obama_rally_many_l.html
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 10:34 am
Good speech at Tulane, I saw some of it live and there was at least some ad-libbing that departed from these prepared remarks:

http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2008/02/barack_obamas_speech.html

Lots to like but I'll semi-randomly select this:

Quote:
We can't gamble every hurricane season. When I am President, we will finish building a system of levees that can withstand a 100-year storm by 2011, with the goal of expanding that protection to defend against a Category 5 storm. We also have to restore nature's barriers - the wetlands, marshes and barrier islands that can take the first blows and protect the people of the Gulf Coast.


I became convinced of the importance of that last part after Katrina.
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 12:50 pm
Cute headline from The Swamp:

Quote:
Obama ads target both young, formerly young


:-P
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OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 01:21 pm
sozobe wrote:
Good speech at Tulane, I saw some of it live and there was at least some ad-libbing that departed from these prepared remarks:

http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2008/02/barack_obamas_speech.html

Lots to like but I'll semi-randomly select this:

Quote:
We can't gamble every hurricane season. When I am President, we will finish building a system of levees that can withstand a 100-year storm by 2011, with the goal of expanding that protection to defend against a Category 5 storm. We also have to restore nature's barriers - the wetlands, marshes and barrier islands that can take the first blows and protect the people of the Gulf Coast.


I became convinced of the importance of that last part after Katrina.
But that's really just so much nonsense. Cat-5 protection isn't economically viable. Katrina proved this, more than anything else. While it is true that beefed up levies would have survived that storm; had the storm struck slightly further to the west; those beefier levies would have resulted in 100 times more carnage as the storm surge filled the city like the bowl it is. Galveston is the same way… and it's no coincidence that it's also the home of two of the nations worst disasters.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 01:28 pm
OCCOM BILL wrote:
sozobe wrote:
Good speech at Tulane, I saw some of it live and there was at least some ad-libbing that departed from these prepared remarks:

http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2008/02/barack_obamas_speech.html

Lots to like but I'll semi-randomly select this:

Quote:
We can't gamble every hurricane season. When I am President, we will finish building a system of levees that can withstand a 100-year storm by 2011, with the goal of expanding that protection to defend against a Category 5 storm. We also have to restore nature's barriers - the wetlands, marshes and barrier islands that can take the first blows and protect the people of the Gulf Coast.


I became convinced of the importance of that last part after Katrina.
But that's really just so much nonsense. Cat-5 protection isn't economically viable. Katrina proved this, more than anything else. While it is true that beefed up levies would have survived that storm; had the storm struck slightly further to the west; those beefier levies would have resulted in 100 times more carnage as the storm surge filled the city like the bowl it is. Galveston is the same way… and it's no coincidence that it's also the home of two of the nations worst disasters.


Actually Galveston ain't so bad anymore; after the big hurricaine they raised the level of the island 19 feet! Shocked Using mules and hand labor! The whole island! Couldn't do that today if we tried.

You're right tho, a cat 5 storm is going to screw anything that comes its' way. As for the levies, we can always blow a few open to drain water out if it comes to that; I'd rather have them be strong to begin with!
0 Replies
 
FreeDuck
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 01:31 pm
OCCOM BILL wrote:
While it is true that beefed up levies would have survived that storm; had the storm struck slightly further to the west; those beefier levies would have resulted in 100 times more carnage as the storm surge filled the city like the bowl it is. Galveston is the same way… and it's no coincidence that it's also the home of two of the nations worst disasters.


But that's what the part about the wetlands and marshes was about. Those areas act as buffers to the storm surge.
0 Replies
 
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 03:32 pm
FreeDuck wrote:
OCCOM BILL wrote:
While it is true that beefed up levies would have survived that storm; had the storm struck slightly further to the west; those beefier levies would have resulted in 100 times more carnage as the storm surge filled the city like the bowl it is. Galveston is the same way… and it's no coincidence that it's also the home of two of the nations worst disasters.


But that's what the part about the wetlands and marshes was about. Those areas act as buffers to the storm surge.
I gather you're none too familiar with Hurricanes. New Orleans was very, very lucky that Katrina lost steam before making landfall (CAT-3) and didn't hit directly. Don't get me wrong; Katrina was a killer among killers with a storm surge of over 25 feet; but she could have been worse. Much worse. The topography of the ocean there lends itself to huge storm surges, which are by far the most deadly of Hurricane effects. At peak CAT-5 strength; Katrina could have hit New Orleans like a 50 foot tall bulldozer, and destroyed EVERYTHING in it's path. Believe it. The record deadliest Tropical cyclone killed 500,000 people in India... and if memory serves; that was a CAT-3 at landfall as well. We've been seeing more CAT-5s lately and it's only a matter of time until one of these killers strikes.

Events like Hurricane Katrina are essentially the finger of God… and can hardly be helped. While I'm sure those clever Dutch could feasibly build a defense system; the cost would so far beyond reason that it would never happen. And even the Dutch have contingency plans for failure. New Orleans will never be equipped to handle a CAT-5 storm. Nor will anywhere else, really… but the combination of the ocean's topography, the Mississippi River and Lake Pontchartrain all on top of the fact that the city lies on average 6 feet below sea level will forever make it an absolute Death Trap during large storm events. Wanna survive a Hurricane in New Orleans? Get the hell out of New Orleans.

(And you'd best not evacuate to Galveston, either.)(A CAT-5 will chuckle at 19 ft, Cyclo, as it washes the city away.)(Again.)
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