Democratic infighting a mixed blessing for McCain
By CRAIG GILBERT
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Four years ago at this time, GOP nominee George W. Bush was sitting on more than $100 million, launching a huge national ad campaign and building the most sophisticated army of volunteers his party had ever seen.
John McCain is way behind that pace on every count.
So it's with relief and glee that many Republicans are embracing the dramatic standoff between Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, a messy marathon that gives McCain more time to put his own campaign together "without a gun to his head," says Mark Graul, who organized Wisconsin for Bush in 2004.
Even better, the Arizona Republican gets to watch the two Democrats not only beat each other up but use some of McCain's own arguments in doing so, questioning each other's credibility, Senate record and foreign policy experience.
"They'll be making it more believable and more credible when McCain uses (those lines of attack) because they will have been saying it for months," says GOP pollster Bill McInturff, who has worked for McCain.
Political scientist Barry Burden likens it to a football team that gets a bye in the first round of the playoffs and can watch its potential opponents play each other first.
"They have all the film. They can look at all their weaknesses," says Burden, a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
That doesn't mean it's an unqualified blessing for McCain to have the Democratic race plow on through spring and into summer, no clean end in sight.
"A long Democratic battle doesn't automatically help the Republicans," longtime Bush strategist Karl Rove wrote in Thursday's Wall Street Journal, two days after Clinton's victories in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island revived her candidacy. "In fact, it hurts the Republicans in certain ways. Mr. McCain becomes less interesting to the media. Stories about him move off page one and grow smaller. TV coverage becomes spotty and short."
Nor is it automatically bad for Democrats for the race to go on. At a minimum, it will mean weeks of intense effort now by the party in the key fall battleground of Pennsylvania (which votes April 22) and possibly the swing states of Florida and Michigan, if those contests are "replayed" after a party rules dispute. It will mean sustained attention for Obama and Clinton, and it could harden and elevate the future winner.
But depending on how long and nasty the race is, it also could embitter key parts of the party's base and scar both Clinton and Obama. The likelihood that neither will have an undisputed claim on the nomination is a formula for resentment [..].
The two Democrats increasingly are using what will be GOP talking points against each other: Clinton raising the specter of a scary foreign policy crisis and suggesting that Obama would not be prepared to handle it; Obama questioning Clinton's own foreign policy experience and offering reminders about Clinton's political baggage.
"I don't think this race has been destructive so far," says GOP pollster McInturff of the Democratic contest. "But I think there's a good chance in the next two or three months that what the rest of this race will produce could effectively diminish both of them. Now she has started with, `He's not ready to be president.' . . . Imagine if John McCain is running that ad."
Marquette University political scientist John McAdams said that process is especially perilous for Obama.
"Until recently, he's largely gotten away with portraying himself as being somehow above politics," says McAdams. "The more he has to mix it up, the more he looks like just another politician."
Many, though not all, GOP insiders view Obama as a potentially tougher fall opponent. So they welcome not only a protracted Democratic fight, but Clinton's comeback. [..]
And while the Democrats duel, McCain has more time to get his house in order, raise money, assemble a national staff and field teams in the battlegrounds, and flesh out a policy agenda that some believe has major gaps in it. [..]