The US Economy

That's right, hobitbob ... we all forgot about the Okinawans ... of course, so do The Japanese.

Unless they want/need something.

From what I've seen of Japan, they are a very discriminatory country against all their minorities, including class discrimination. Many of the women are getting wise, and not getting married until late, because they see how Japanese husbands treat their wives. It's changing some, but very slowly.

Several years ago, when I was still doing Shotokan, I was in Tokyo in July (first mistake!) trainig at the JKA Hombu Dojo (When the JKA was still the real thing) and witnessed the most amazing sight at a subway station. An elderly drunk had fallen,and a group of teenagers were busily kicking him. No one did a thing. To my shame, I hopped on my train and minded my own business. Later that day,at the Dojo, I asked one of the Americans who ahd been there a while to explain what I had seen, and he likened it to a herd killing sick animals to prevent further pollution of the herd. Apparently ostracism of the odd is preferable to admitting they exist,a dn having to deal with the fact that you may one day be in their place. I thought it horrible.

hobit, Some years ago, families hid their disabled children from the public, because to them, it was shameful to the family. That kind of mindset is hard to overcome.

Historically, the Japanese treatment of the Ainu is a cultural crime; despite the relatively recent recognition of the ethnic group as a "National Treasure" they are effectively considered nothing more than a tourist attraction.

More bad news for the doomsayers
The Economy may not be fully recovered, but it sure seems to be getting better day by day.

You don't suppose the tax cuts might really be helping things along, do you? I mean, after all, they're just for the rich, aren't they? The extra money consumers are pumping into the market must be coming from somewhere else ... cookie jars, matresses, and moneytrees, maybe?

timber, It's good to see some good news on retail sales for a month or two, but what we must look for are long term improvement trends. Retail sales is a fickle animal that shows seasonal changes from one month to the next since these statistics were gathered. What will really have a positive impact is the upcoming christmas season. We haven't had a good December since 1999.

timber -- that has a lot to do with people holding back their spending and getting more comfortable with their burden of debt and sometimes have been able to fortify their financial cushion. It's from not spending money for a long period of time, not from tax cuts -- the average tax cut would barely buy a six pack of coke a week and with the new minimum tax, there is no tax cut for a lot of the middle class.

I find this true in my art and lighting business -- people haven't been spending large chunks of their expendable income who can afford to purchase and expensive lighting system or artwork. They may have invested it, established a savings with a high yield, bought bonds -- who knows. With my clientele from experience some of it's in a floor safe in their home (don't ask me any embarassing questions). I deal with people with money all the time -- the tax cut isn't stimulating them to buy anything. They are not optimistic about the tax cut holding up and know sometime down the road that this administration is spending, spending, spending and one day the bill will come due. It's a borrow and spend administration.

The witch in Hansel and Gretel was fooled by the bone thrust through the bars of the cage but all of us should know what kind of a bone Bush and his administration is offering. It's the kind one is required to bend over for.

I also won't be too quick to give the tax cut the credit for the increase in retail sales. Consumer debt increased by five billion in July.

Credit card companies have been doing everything they can to drum up business -- sending out special rate deals, sending actual cards in the mail (not even an offer to send back in for the card), in fact every marketing trick in the book. Credit card sales have been lagging. Is the July buying predictable? Lots of retailers had July 4th sales, lowering their profit margins. They haven't stopped if one looks in the paper. There's some sort of sale going on at a major department store or other retailer. Wonder how much of that is car sales -- car sales typically bump when the old models are being sold off and the new models come in. The sales increase would have to last for at least six months before it is any indicator of consumer confidence being up. If it were the rich spending their tax cut, how many boats can they buy?

we've got a provincial election coming up in ontario shortly. the (sitting) conservatives are promising all kinds of taxcuts and credits "because it will stimulate the economy and create more jobs AND - therefor - more tax revenue" - hooray, we've sqared the circle. my proposal would be to eliminate ALL taxes and the the economy should really take off ! for the last election ontarions were given a "TAX_DIVIDEND_CREDIT " of about $200(canajun!) , and lo-and-behold all kinds of medical services etc. were DELISTED ! that's the kind of dividend i like, where you have to give back more than you originally received. so you can see, ontario tax policy isn't that much different from the american tax policy - that ought to make you all happy ! grumble, grumble... hbg

(They still only need one toaster just like the rest of us, unless they have two kitchens. Besides, too many people think they are rich when, in fact, they are not. I sure run into that in this business).

hamburger, politicians pull that slight of hand all the time. It's the shell game. Give you a tax cut with one hand while they are pick pocketing your wallet with the other.

lightwizard : yea, and the unfortunate thing is that an awful lot of voters fall for it ! and when you talk to them later, they'll either say(lie) : "i didn't vote for them ! " -witness germany 1933 ! - or they'll say "oh, i didn't realize it would turn out this way ". well, i'll get of the soapbox now. hbg

RLX= Retail Index
SPX= Standard & Poor Index
DJI= Dow Jones Industrial ("The Dow Index")

Exactly, c.i. , glad you brought that up.
The Retail Index, up a bit over 40% in the past six months, has significantly, and consistently, outpaced overall market recovery, which by either of two major indexes is up roughly 25% over the same period ... I'd characterize that as more than just "a month or two".


edited tocorrect a spelling error ... there are no "K"s in "Retail" ...

timber, What in the world is a Retail Sales Index? Up 40 percent from what? Show us some Department of Commerce numbers. In addition to that, PROFIT numbers too. A funny thing happened the other day when I went to the store. I bought a $40 trousers for $15. I just want to know what that 40 percent is all about.

i gets so confused:
Weak Retail Sales Drag on Markets
By Jerry Knight
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, September 12, 2003; 4:46 PM
Weak retail sales and weakening consumer confidence are finally ending the stock market's long summer winning streak.
Disappointing data on August sales -- which grew only half as much as the previous month -- and the third decline in four months in consumer confidence affected the market today.

Here's some stats on retail sales for the big retail outlets. Some are showing increases, but some are also showing red ink. According to this report, the retailers don't have much hope for September sales. http://www.btmny.com/reports/research/comment/cs0803.pdf

Here's the profit picture for the large retail chains. Doesn't look to me like sales or profits has increased by 40 percent. http://www.census.gov/csd/qfr/view/qfr_rt.html