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The US Economy

 
 
Lightwizard
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 Feb, 2004 10:40 am
Don't you think commenting on someone's opinion as "drivel" is an ad hominem attack? I realize trying to remain logical about economic theories is
often difficult to achieve. Everyone has their view of their own personal financial future which can, incidentally, be upset with the tide of consequences. Ask those who were involved with Enron and the rest.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 Feb, 2004 10:51 am
LW, Greenspan's opinion has world-wide impact, while mine is limited to A2K. I don't think my challenge of Greenspan's statements are an ad hominem attack.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 Feb, 2004 10:01 pm
I think Greenspan is losing it. He's now suggesting that American workers "improve their skills." To what, may I ask? I do agree with him on one point; protectionism is not the answer.
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Sun 22 Feb, 2004 07:03 am
cicerone imposter wrote:
I think Greenspan is losing it. He's now suggesting that American workers "improve their skills." To what, may I ask?

Generally speaking, from skills that are demanded in manufacturing jobs to skills that are demanded in service jobs. The structural problem for the American job market is that technical progress and trade are making manufacturing more efficient, which destroys jobs in manufacturing and creates jobs in services.

It would be nice to have a bit more context on Greenspan's quote. Three words isn't much to go on. Would you mind giving me a source?
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 22 Feb, 2004 10:04 am
It was posted in another article, but I found this one with the "same" statement from Greenspan.
********

Associated Press
Greenspan Cautions Against Protectionism
Saturday February 21, 1:34 pm ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan Warns That Protectionism Won't Cure Nation's Job Woes


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, venturing into the politically charged debate over shipping U.S. jobs overseas, warned against resorting to "protectionist cures" to deal with job losses.
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Jobs have become a big issue on the 2004 campaign trail with Democratic presidential candidates blaming President Bush's economic policies for the loss of 2.2 million jobs since he became president.

The issue was highlighted even more last week with the release of Bush's annual economic report to Congress in which his chief economic adviser, N. Gregory Mankiw, said that the growth of service job outsourcing offered long-term benefits to the economy through freer trade flows.

Greenspan said Friday that upgrading educational opportunities for low-skilled workers in America was the best way to deal with increased global competition.

He conceded that there were heightened job insecurities in the current environment in which nearly 2 million unemployed Americans have spent more than a year looking for a new job.

"The protectionist cures being advanced to address these hardships will make matters worse rather than better," Greenspan said in a speech to the Omaha, Neb., Chamber of Commerce. "Protectionism will do little to create jobs and if foreigners retaliate, we will surely lose jobs."

Sen. John Edwards, now the chief challenger to Democratic front-runner Sen. John Kerry, has sought to highlight free trade as a chief culprit in the job losses. Both Edwards and Kerry have said they will re-examine all of Bush's trade deals with the aim of making sure they contained greater protection for U.S. workers against unfair foreign competition.

In warning against increased protectionism, Greenspan did not mention either Edwards or Kerry by name. Greenspan predicted, as he did in recent congressional testimony, that job growth should strengthen in coming months as a result of the rebounding economic growth.

In talking about outsourcing, Greenspan acknowledged that the moving overseas of service jobs -- such as putting customer call centers in India -- had created new anxieties in an American economy that had already seen a steady erosion in manufacturing jobs.

"There is a palpable unease that businesses and jobs are being drained from the United States, with potentially adverse long-run implications for unemployment and the standard of living of the average American," Greenspan said.

But he said it was important to bridge the gulf between economists, who see the widespread benefits of free trade to a country, and the workers whose jobs are lost because of that competition.

"As history clearly shows, our economy is best served by full and vigorous engagement in the global economy," Greenspan said, echoing a point Mankiw made in the economic report.

Mankiw has apologized for comments he made about outsourcing that appeared insensitive to the plight of unemployed workers. The Bush administration this week backtracked on a forecast in the economic report which said that 2.6 million jobs will be created this year, a change that Democrats immediately attacked as raising further credibility issues with the current administration.

Democrats opened a third avenue of criticism on Bush's economic report on Friday when they ridiculed a section of the report that raised the question of whether fast-food restaurants should be reclassified from the service sector to manufacturing since they could be viewed as "combining inputs to manufacture a product."

"Unable to stop the hemorrhaging of American manufacturing jobs, the Bush administration is offering up some world-class job creation sleight of hand: change the definition of what constitutes a manufacturing job," said Rep. George Miller, D-Calif.

In his speech, Greenspan said the better approach to the increased trade competition was to step up efforts to upgrade the skills of the U.S. work force, especially those in low-income jobs most vulnerable to foreign competition.

"Technology and, more recently, competition from abroad have risen to a point at which demand for the lowest skilled workers in developed countries is diminishing, placing pressure on their wages," Greenspan said.

"These workers will need to be equipped with the skills to compete effectively for the new jobs that our economy will create," Greenspan said.

Federal Reserve: http://www.federalreserve.gov
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 22 Feb, 2004 10:06 am
BTW, I also do not believe in protectionist policies for the US.
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Sun 22 Feb, 2004 11:51 am
Thanks for the reference, CI! Actually, what Greenspan is saying about education is just what I have been saying in this community for quite some time. If he's lost it, I've lost it too. Wink
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Feb, 2004 07:38 am
Alan Greenspan pours cold water on the optimistic household survey.
Quote:
"At this point, the gap between the payroll and the household data continues to be a puzzle,'' said N. Gregory Mankiw, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, in a speech this month. But, he added, the number of self-employed workers has risen by 326,000 in the last three years and the "extent of self-employment has changed as the economy has changed.''

Unfortunately for the optimists, the Federal Reserve has just thrown cold water on the household data. It concludes that the gloomy payroll data is essentially accurate and that the household survey is probably off base.

"I wish I could say the household survey were the more accurate,'' Alan Greenspan, the Fed chairman, said in his testimony at a House hearing on Feb. 11. "Everything we've looked at suggests that it's the payroll data which are the series which you have to follow.''

To test the self-employment theory, the Fed adjusted the household survey by taking out all the kinds of workers who do not show up on the payroll survey - self-employed people, but also farm workers and family workers in family-run companies. Even then, Mr. Greenspan said, the discrepancy remains large.

The Fed's conclusion was that the household survey's results have been inflated by overestimates of population growth.

For the record: I have seen Gregory Mankiw's full speech on C-Span, and he did mention that self-employment accounts only for a small fraction between the payroll survey and the household survey. Evidently the New York Times omitted this part in order to get a he-said-she-said story. Kudos for two rare grown-up Republicans for saying things as they see them, not as the spin-masters want to hear them!
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Feb, 2004 10:14 am
Thomas, I'm also for iimproved education for our children. That is fundamental for our economy to compete in the world markets. What I'm challenging is the impression that our population can "improve their skills" to change the employment data in the near-term future. I'm also questioning the idea of improving skills, but in what areas? Those are the big questions left open by Greenspan's recent statements.
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Brand X
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Feb, 2004 10:18 am
Geenspan is only reflecting views expressed by business leaders. Greenspan doesn't run any corporations that I'm aware of, but he reviews loads of data and info that we don't see.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Feb, 2004 10:21 am
Brand X's quote, "Greenspan doesn't run any corporations that I'm aware of,...." We already know that!
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Lightwizard
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Feb, 2004 11:38 am
I didn't mean you, c.i.!

Those who run corporations have selfish interests -- listening to what they have to say about the economy is like listening to one's wife for advice during a divorce.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Feb, 2004 12:15 pm
Oh! Gotcha. Wink
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Scrat
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Feb, 2004 12:37 pm
Thomas wrote:
Scrat wrote:
Seriously, if you think the Constitution offers any such right, please support that belief. I suspect you would challenge me if I simply wrote that I'm sure the Constitution allows for slavery, but I don't know how.

Well, the constitution passed in 1787 did allow for slavery, though I couldn't cite the article saying that. But I know it did, because it took an amendment (not sure which number) to change it. Freedom of contract and freedom of association are basic human rights, so I expect any democratic constitution in the 21st century to support it in some way. I agree that such indirect evidence is far short of proof. Tough. This forum has members from 20 democratic countries, and I don't feel responsible for reading each of their constitutions and find out the exact way in which it protects human rights. I just bet they have someway of doing it and hope for the best.

As a matter of procedure, I'm always sorry if you don't like my evidence, but that's ultimately your problem. I feel responsible for stating honestly what my evidence is, but I do not feel responsible for making you happy with it. Ultimately, the only one who has to be happy with my evidence is me.

I find your notion of a "basic human right" to enter into contracts uncompelling. Do I have a right to contract with you to kill someone? Does a child have the same right to enter into contracts as an adult? Clearly there is no absolute, unfettered right to contract. Since it is something that is limited, the question of how we limit it is fair game. (We may have a "basic human right" to enter into contracts, but it is not absolute.) You want to white-wash over this particular part of reality and pretend that we all enjoy some boundless, absolute right to contract with other people for anything we desire. Were that the case, your argument would have merit.

But perhaps you could save yourself some time by simply recognizing that--whether you think it a "good" argument or not, the equal protection clause IS WHAT HAS BEEN USED to open the legal door to the right to same-gender unions, NOT your basic human right to contract.
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Feb, 2004 12:48 pm
Scrat wrote:
But perhaps you could save yourself some time by simply recognizing that--whether you think it a "good" argument or not, the equal protection clause IS WHAT HAS BEEN USED to open the legal door to the right to same-gender unions, NOT your basic human right to contract.

Consider it recognized -- several years ago. All I was saying is that there are other reasons to justify gay marriage than the equal protection clause, so the brouhaha won't go away if the equal protection clause is found inapplicable to this question.
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Scrat
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Feb, 2004 01:12 pm
Thomas wrote:
Scrat wrote:
But perhaps you could save yourself some time by simply recognizing that--whether you think it a "good" argument or not, the equal protection clause IS WHAT HAS BEEN USED to open the legal door to the right to same-gender unions, NOT your basic human right to contract.

Consider it recognized -- several years ago. All I was saying is that there are other reasons to justify gay marriage than the equal protection clause, so the brouhaha won't go away if the equal protection clause is found inapplicable to this question.

Oh, okay. But--in case I confused you (which would be my fault!) I am not arguing that the equal protection clause doesn't apply here; in fact I believe strongly that it must.

Regards,
Scrat
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Tue 24 Feb, 2004 04:00 am
Berkeley's Brad de Long has a fair and balanced polemic on his website.
Quote:
In the mid-1990s labor productivity growth in America accelerated from 1.2% to 3.0% per year. At a rate of labor productivity growth of 1.2% per year, America is a land of diminished expectations: it takes 60 years for incomes to double, and lots of good things that we would want to accomplish seem far outside our private and public budgets. At a rate of labor productivity growth of 3% per year, America is a land of infinite promise: incomes double every 25 years, and our public--and private--resources seem ample, are ample.

We economists debate whether 1/6 (Greg Mankiw's estimate), 1/3, or 1/2 (my estimate) of the acceleration in productivity growth is due to better policies by the coalition that marched under Bill Clinton's banner, and how much by good luck with ongoing technological revolutions. We economists debate how long the boom in productivity growth will last--five more years? A decade? A generation? Longer? But I don't want to go there. I want to say that today America's productive potential is growing very rapidly, and America today should be an arena of enormous opportunity. I want to say that--to a substantial degree--this opportunity is being wasted by the Bush administration.

read on
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 24 Feb, 2004 08:09 am
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Tue 24 Feb, 2004 08:31 am
georgeob1 wrote:
Interesting piece, more restrained than many on these subjects, but fair and balanced? I'm not so sure.

It was an ironic play on an American TV station who uses "fair and balanced" as a slogan. Maybe I should have put it in scare quotes.
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Tue 24 Feb, 2004 09:30 am
georgeob1 wrote:
Democrats used the argument, but only to condemn ANY tax cut, not to propose a better one. (Late in the debate some Democrats proposed relatively small tax cuts, but they lacked majority support even in that party.)

You may well be right, and I'd have to research this more thoroughly to refute you convincingly. (It's easier to get information on proposals that got implemented than on those which didn't.) If I remember correctly though, the Democrats did advocate federal aid to the states. These would have either worked out as tax cuts by proxy -- many states raised their taxes in this recession -- or they would have been spent on schools, road maintenance and other such projects. But as I said, I'd have to look more deeply into this if you wish to discuss this point.

georgeob1 wrote:
My impression is that productivity growth in Europe has for some time been much lower than that in the U.S. To what do you attribute that?

There was a lot of reasons, and I'm not sure what their relative impacts were. Here's an incomplete list: 1) Overregulated job markets made it hard to adapt production to technical progress, which wasn't the case in the US. 2) In the 70s and 80s, productivity growth hadn't declined as much in Europe as it had in the US, so there was possibly more slack for the US to cut in the 90s. 3) Europeans used much of their productivity gains to work shorter hours. People value leisure, but it isn't a produced good so it doesn't show up in productivity statistics. If you compare productivity per work hour, the discrepancy is much smaller, though I'd have to look up how much.

georgeob1 wrote:
(I still dislike watching the #@$##&%$ Krugman photo stare at me !)

I assure you it's not personal. The common theme of my two avatars, Milton Friedman and Paul Krugman, is that they both have a habit of saying things that are extremely unpopular but correct. I am impressed by these gentlemen's guts, and I wish to express my respect for them -- even if half the A2K population inevitably ends up on the wrong side of the 'extremely unpopular' part. As soon as Bush is out of office, I'll switch back to Milton Friedman. Or maybe Gary Becker, or Richard Posner, or H.L. Mencken, or ...
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