The US Economy

Well, that's really stretching it, Timber. The page, that is.

No, Scrat (and Timber), now that I'm mostly retired, I'm dependent on the economy in a way which makes me hope that we have steady (safe, reliable) growth rather than ups and downs. We have different news sources (or did early this a.m.) -- mine pointed out that this was indeed confounding and terrific but most conservative long-term investment folks will tell you to be careful. Slow, steady growth is what we need -- let's hope that's what we're seeing. You're the guys who are on the lookout for doom and gloom, not me.

Tartar, I'm also not jumping on the bandwagon just yet. As you say, a one month blip may be encouraging, but it's the long-term that will speak volumes. Why people must tag us as "doom and gloomers" rather than having a difference of opinion on how our economy is headed is interesting. We're also listening to the same positive reports, but also look at the "detail" of the world's economies to conclude that perhaps we should look more at the long-term than short-term good news/bad news. What I see is a world economy, not an isolated US economy. In today's San Jose Mercury News' Business Section, here's some of the news on the world economy. A) The European Union cuts '03 growth forecast to a mere 0.4 percent growth this year down from an already amemic 1 percent estimated in April. B) Hitachi profit falls posting a 5 percent drop i net profit. C) VW earnings erode. Well, I think you get the picture. Finally, it's great that the government reports our GDP is growing at over 7 percent. I only posit that we should wait to make sure that number is sustained for the long-term before we get too excited. That's not a complaint for those of you who don't understand a personal analysis/opinion. Do I have a complaint? You betcha; and that's that GWBush has given the wealthiest in our country tax breaks while our federal deficit continues to mount.

Uh Oh ... the page got stretched? I just looked and itt seems normal to me, on several individual machines with different browsers and with monitors at various resolutions ... odd. Sorry. I sure don't notice it. For my own curiosity, does anyone else have the problem?

Tart, I don't really thing anyone's "On the lookout" for "Doom-and-Gloom", though some folks do have a considerable politically-driven emotional investment in less clearcut indicators of the successes of the policies of The Current Administration. While nothing of the sort is assured, nonetheless the news of resolution in the matters of the whereabouts of either or both Saddam and Osama, and/or growing stabilization, progress toward indiginous rule, and economic development in Iraq and to a lesser extent Afghanistan will, however, spell certain doom for the 2004 prospects of The Democratic Party.

Oh, and c.i. , the "Blip" protestation of which you've been so fond has grown rather stale over the past several months of such blips as have been repeatedly brought to your attention :wink:

I know, timber, I'm a thorn in your side. We still haven't seen that job growth after all these months of GDP growth. That one month blip of 57,000 jobs still represents only 1.2 percent of lost jobs. Sorry bout that!

If things progress as seems the trend at the moment, as evidenced by a couple year's worth of encouraging indicators, c.i. , substantial job growth should be evident in Q2 and be then confirmed in Q3 of '04 ... something which will be of severe inconvenience to The Democrats come Q4 '04.

As an aside, I expect The Dems will try to get all the mileage they can out of the seasonally-to-be-expected slackening of certain growth indicators in Q4 '03. The ongoing developments are certainly a bitter pill for them to swallow.

timber, Adding 50,000 more jobs at K-Mart or WalMart isn't my idea of 'job growth,' although that's one positive indicator that more people are shopping at discount stores.

Here's another "bad" news on our economy; the biggest textile company in the US just closed it's doors. Wonder how many lost their jobs and health benefits? For those of you who don't know the difference, this is not "doom and gloom." It's just reporting one of the facts.

timber's quote, "substantial job growth should be evident in Q2 and be then confirmed in Q3 of '04." We're all hoping you're right on this one - me included.

Something which needs to be added here before I forget the details -- not as a counter argument to the ups of the GDP. It's a "lest we forget" note.

On the radio just now, while driving home, I heard a report out of San Antonio provoked by the recent horror in NJ in which kids were discovered to have been starved by their foster parents...

San Antonio has had all too many similar incidents and is looking again at the budget for oversight of children placed in foster care. The facts are stark and probably not dissimilar from the stats in other states: Gov. Rick Perry, following a trend begun during the Bush admin, worked with the legislature to cut the budget for state/county/municipal oversight of children in foster care or at risk in other ways by 18% -- eighteen percent -- at the start of the recession. And of course the recession meant that companies and individuals cut back their gifts to non-profits which usually make up the different.

This has contributed to the horror stories, of course. So there will always be those of us who look a) at our own pocketbook -- how's the stock market doing? how's the job market? but who also look at b) how are those at the needy end of the community doing? are they receiving a share of prosperity during prosperous times, or are they only paying the penalty of cuts during hard times? Without this holistic approach, we're not really looking at the economy.

"A rising tide lifts all boats", Tart ... enhanced tax revenue pursuant to increased profits will ammeliorate, even obviate, the negative impact of recent recession-driven fiscal restraint.

It wasn't much of a stretch either of the imagination or the page -- here at the gallery, it also stretched the page. What are you on -- 40" widescreen monitors (don't laugh, a client of mine has one!)

Really, that post stretch went off the end of my desk and through the wall!

Jeeeezusssss! We've been showing you positive economic numbers and reports for MONTHS! Face it, you don't want to be shown what's happening!

Save your breath. She either refuses to recognize this or is incapable of doing so.

Wierd ... right now I'm on a 14.1" laptop and it looks fine to me, looks good on a 12.5" laptop, as well ... earlier, when I made the original problematic post, I was on a 23" widescreen flat pannel, but it looked OK on conventional 17" and 19" CRTs, too. Really wierd. Mebbe it has to do with resolution ... are you folks set at 800X600 perchance? I'll check that later ... got other stuff to do right now, but I'll try to follow up on this as soon as I can.

No, I'm on 1024 x 768 -- the stretch dissapears on this page. I'm just ribbing you anyway, timber about stretching. Now stand up and stretch.

"...enhanced tax revenue pursuant to increased profits will ammeliorate, even obviate, the negative impact of recent recession-driven fiscal restraint... "

Wow, I'm impressed, Timber! I'll pass your very words along to the 45 lb. 19-year-olds as reassurance!

How about passing them a pizza instead?

(Silly liberals.)

The Dems are already crossing out "It's the economy Stupid" and writing in " It's the war in Iraq stupid". After that problem is brought under control will they promise to jump off the tallest building and give us time to draw a crowd?