Button pushing?
(You could start a noo-clu-yar war!)
Continuing
Unrealized disappointment for some
Quote:Maintaining Its Policy, Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged
Now if the job figures due later this week continue in the same vein ....
When the fed's say, " "the labor market appears to be stabilizing....." they mean we're not losing 90,000 jobs every month like the previous three years.
And you don't consider that a positive indicator, c.i. ? Would you prefer the labor market to appear to be worsening?
The job marketing appearing to worsen would not be a clear indicator right now of the state of the economy any more than it "appearing" to stabilize.
Love that choice of the word. Maybe the administration should hire David Copperfield.
Not kidding around, the first quarter of 2004 will really tell the story. It looks like Christmas consumerism could be good which would add jobs for the Holidays. In our state, Ahnold is going to have to decide with the new budget whether to let all those state employees go before Christmas or after. I wouldn't want to be in his shoes (I'd probalby float in them anyway!) I'm optimistic but unwilling to play Polyanna.
If anybody's entitled to be in a doom-and-gloom mood, its The Left Coasters. You guys have literally gone from the frying pan into the fire. I sure hope you and yours aren't endangered by the current real conflagration. I just heard from a freind who lost his home of over 25 years ... and he retires from the CHP in January, as long as that doesn't go wrong, too. Real bummer for the guy ... he was on emergency traffic control elsewhere, and heard over the radio as the fireline around his neighborhood was breached and then abandoned.
That's terrible news and certainly at this moment overshadows any economic woes for the rest of us.
LW, When Ahnold starts to cut spending, it's also gonna affect county and city budgets across the state. We're gonna see a whole lot of government jobs disappear, or Ahnold will accomplish nothing.
He has to layoff I believe 16,000 state workers, throwing them into the private job market. I know the Newport Beach government is cutting back drastically on contracting out to repair streets and upgrade other infrastructure. This is the usual cut off your nose to spite your face political game. Except that Ahnold has already had enough plastic surgery.
I think the next "operation" is going to remove some of his limbs.
The photo ops this morning of Ahnold in Washington only made me break up. His purpose of trying to pry money out of the Washington money machine is now slightly different (his characterization) -- he wants to get as much money as possible to assist people in rebuilding their homes and businesses. How gratifying to know he recognizes the economic pitfalls which are unavoidable. The serendipity is the construction jobs this disaster will generate -- at least for those who want to stay and rebuild. Another unquantified future as far as money. The downside is the area is now burned off but subject to water and mud damage when the rains come. And we are headed for a new onslaught of El Nino in So Cal.
The damage so far: 1600 homes, 2 billion dollars in lost property.
timber, My post is self-explanatory. Not losing 90,000 jobs a month may be an improvement, but it says nothing about "stabilizing" anything - not our job market nor our economy. As a matter of fact, this morning's newspaper has a list of quarterly reports on Silicon Valley businesses which shows they are losing less per share, but it's still a loss. I'll start feeling comfortable when they start to show some consisent quarterly profits. 15 of the 22 companies reported losses for the past quarter. My math tells me (68%) that's a majority still losing money. I see more layoffs coming down the pike.
Even the battered Tech Sector is showing signs of substantial recovery, as
Wired Magazine points out:
Quote:Not So Quiet on Tech Job Front
By Suneel Ratan
02:00 AM Oct. 20, 2003 PT
SAN FRANCISCO -- Tech job postings on two popular online employment sites have increased sharply, a sign that the long moribund job market may finally be turning around.
Craigslist tech job postings in the San Francisco Bay Area have doubled from a year ago and are up 50 percent from six months ago, said CEO Jim Buckmaster. Activity has particularly picked up in the past four weeks, he said.
A similar picture has emerged at Monster.com, one of the Web's biggest job sites. Overall listings are up 19 percent in the past six months, said founder Jeff Taylor. The increases are centered in such tech job categories as software development (39 percent), call center jobs (36 percent) and engineering (21 percent) ...
... John Challenger, of the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, wasn't surprised by job-site indications that the market might be turning.
Challenger, whose firm releases monthly statistics tracking layoffs announced primarily by big companies, noted that the tech job market has at least been stabilizing for some time. Tech businesses account for 17 percent of reported layoffs this year through September, down from one-third of layoffs last year.
Quote from post, "... John Challenger, of the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, wasn't surprised by job-site indications that the market might be turning." Nothing like a little confidence that the job market is improving; "might be turning," is still guess work in my understanding of the English language.
The economic pundits are being cautious -- they don't want to end up looking like fools by sticking their neck out and predicting any swift and impressive recovery. I tend to agree with those who say this will be a protracted recovery with some bumbs along the way. This is partly due to my being cynical about politicians and they consistently seem to give me reasons to be cynical. I am in a business that relies on a positive attitude so you won't see or hear me display that attitude towards any of my customers. But then, politicians are salespeople too. Just often poor salespeople -- the assume a sale or go in for a hard close when frustrated.
cicerone imposter wrote:Quote from post, "... John Challenger, of the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, wasn't surprised by job-site indications that the market might be turning." Nothing like a little confidence that the job market is improving; "might be turning," is still guess work in my understanding of the English language.
I love your tenacity in seeking out the dark mote inside every silver cloud. You clearly have a bias towards viewing the economy as being half empty. (I understand that bias given your location and your field, but it seems that you do not even acknowledge it. Am I wrong?)
Scrat are you partially basing your optimism on the economy here in Raleigh?
Because as an entertainer and former events planner I can tell you that people are Not going out like they were, have cut way back on corporate functions, school carnivals etc.
I used to by this time of year have my holiday party calendar closed out . Today I have ONE holiday party booked. No one is spending any discretionary money. When a company will no longer spend money on parties, picnics etc. it is a sure sign that things aren't good, because that, believe it or not, is an expenditure that is generally one of the last to go. gotta take care of who's till there and show appreciation.
The clubs and restaurants where I do karaoke shows are down as much as 70%..and not just me but everyone I know in the business. People are afraid to spend discretionary money.
Is this a good indicator? I don't know. Is it a fact? Yes.
BPB - The fact that your services are not booked this year is not evidence that "No one is spending any discretionary money". It may be evidence that fewer people are spending it on what you offer. And while I have no doubt that you are great at what you do, the fact that you are not booked up could also be a function of people choosing your competition over you. (I AM NOT suggesting that this is the case, just pointing out the illogic of your assertion that your lack of business proves no one is spending.)
And FYI: I just this minute spoke with a friend who owns a local catering business (I built and maintain their Website for them). They are booked solid for the holidays and see no indication that people are holding back on discretionary spending for celebratory events this year. This is a company in your market. When I ask them how they think the economy is doing, they think it's fine, right on track.
(Now here's the important point...) Does their personal experience mean the economy is doing well or that it is improving? NO. And neither does your personal experience or CI's prove that it is not. We have to look at an amalgam of lots and lots of personal experiences before we can draw any meaningful conclusion. That's what I'm trying to do, and I come down on the side of improvement; not because I'm personally doing better than a year ago... I'm not. I think things are improving because I see more positive indicators than negative ones.
