The plot thickens - even without a script
Peter Roebuck
March 23, 2011
Sourced from the Sydney Morning Herald
If sport were logical, any fool could predict the outcome of the World Cup quarter-finals. Pakistan ought to overpower the West Indies, India should subdue the Aussies, the Proteas are supposed to trounce the Kiwis, and the Sri Lankans ought to extinguish England's flickering flame.
But sport has its own ways, and takes all sorts of other factors into account, including the drop of the coin, the bounce of the ball, weather and nerves. And cricket is an individual game in the guise of a team sport. An inspired player can turn a match on its head.
Pakistan have played strong cricket in this campaign, and ought to eject the West Indians. Shahid Afridi's side appears united and spirited, and Waqar Younis seems to be succeeding as coach. Waqar has told them not to indulge in the factionalism that blighted his career.
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Umar Gul has been the pace bowler of the tournament. Tall and aggressive, he has held together an attack founded on spin. Although Kumar Roach has been periodically pesky, West Indies lack a champion speedster to put against him.
Pakistan's spinners also look superior, with Afridi working well in the middle overs and Abdur Rehman tying opening batsmen down with his canny tweakers.
Even so, the West Indies can cause an upset. It is by no means impossible that Ramnaresh Sarwan, Chris Gayle, Kieron Pollard and Darren Bravo will carry the day.
Everyone except Australian supporters believes the holders are in with a fighting chance of beating India. Pessimism is reserved for followers alarmed by erratic bowling and stodgy middle-order batting. Certainly the hosts will be under more pressure. For the first time for 20 years, Australia will enjoy the luxury of starting a World Cup match as outsiders.
The Indians have been collapsing and, Zaheer Khan apart, the pace bowling lacks penetration. India used five spinners in their last outing. An awful lot depends on the openers and Yuvraj Singh, whose work has improved considerably after his splendid father told him to stop whining and to get into shape.
Australia look ripe for the plucking but it'd be foolish to discount them. Ricky Ponting needs everything to fall into place, his fast bowlers to hit the mark, his spinners to take wickets and his batsmen to rotate the strike.
Despite the prevailing gloom, it's not inconceivable. Australia's opening batsmen are resourceful, and Michael Clarke and Brett Lee have been in fine fettle. Ponting himself has a lot to lose and a lot to win. Can he roll back the years? It's hard to see this Australian side lifting the trophy but that does not mean they are pushovers.
South Africa and New Zealand meet in Dhaka, and the favourites will be under pressure. If the Kiwis are knocked out, it will be a disappointment not a disaster. Graeme Smith and his merry men know no such licence. Smith is stepping down as one-day captain at the end of the Cup, and knows he will be judged at least in part by its outcome. He leads a balanced outfit free from the scars of the past. Hashim Amla has been playing superbly, and the batting is strong.
South Africa have the superior attack, too, but the Kiwis will not fear them. These Kiwis believe in themselves, and cannot be taken lightly.
England have survived more scares than a child in a haunted house. Andrew Strauss has been batting well, and Graeme Swann has been superb, but the team's strength lies in its spirit. Whether they have anything more to offer remains to be seen.
Sri Lanka have deservedly become one of the most fancied sides. Although somewhat dependent on two excellent middle-order batsmen, the Lankans are playing with gusto and possess in the three Ms - Murali, Mendis and Malinga - the most potent trio in the tournament.
Logic insists Sri Lanka will join India, South Africa and Pakistan in the semis but the script has not been written, and it remains for one man or one team to seize the moment and to shake it until it submits.
