HOW 'd EARTH DIFFER IF GAVRILO PRINCIP HAD MISSED ?

I'd be interested to hear the history buff's view on this.

Then it would have started a short time later: most nations just were waiting for a reason to show the military force, and nationalism/patriosm was high in all countries.

I certainly cannot deny this possibility.
We will never know.
Some historians have opined that thay were working out
their differences and wud have done so successfully,
had it not been for the precipitating factor of the assassination.

I am rather interested in the absence of the historical weakening
of the Russian Monarchy ( which assisted the Bolshiviks )
and the harsh Treaty of Versailles,
to which Hitler objected so fervently
and which was the basis of his political success,
and which gave rise to the Third World War against the commies.


Even More,
I cannot help but wonder how inferior our state of technological advancement
wud be in the absence of the impetus given by the emergency needs
of research n development of the first 3 world wars.

How far behind wud we be, relative to where we r now ?

Wud we have TVs yet ?
computers ?
Space travel ?
Were those world wars WORTH IT, to enjoy the benefits
of our modern state of technology ?
Many millions of people were enslaved and were killed
by the nazis and commies, during the process.

If u cud knock over Princip, so as to make him MISS,
wud u DO IT, knowing that this wud result in reducing and slowing
scientific and military advancement ?

Wud making him MISS,
be the equivallent of burning the Library at Alexandria ?
David

There likely would have soon been war just for the Black Hand having made the attempt. The Austrian foreign minister, von Berchtold, was determined on war, and given his intractable behavior, i suspect he'd have imposed on the Serbs even for a failed attempt. The Austrians presented the Serbs with an ultimatum, and the Serbs agreed to the terms. So the Austrians presented another ultimatum, and the Serbs agreed to the terms of that ultimatum. Finally, they were presented a third ultimatum, and the Serbs said they could agree to all the terms, except that Austrian police be allowed to be stationed in Serbia and investigate the Black Hand and make arrests, and that Austrian courts be convened in Serbia to try them. That the Serbs could not agree to, and were prepared, reluctantly, to go to war over that.

There are several factors to keep in mind--Walter has already pointed out that there had been two wars in the Balkans just previously. The other is the Serb attitude. They are painted as innocent victims. Victims they certainly were, but hardly innocent. They continue their "innocent victims" nonsense to this day (c.f. SWolf and Gunga Din, who may well be the same individual, posting "poor Serb" propaganda all the time). The Serbs have had a chip on their shoulder for about 800 years, and Serb nationalists have cherished the notion of a "Greater Serbia" for centuries, even before they got out from under the Turkish thumb. After this war, they sent their troops in all directions precisely because they wanted to create that Greater Serbia--they sent troops into Hungary, Bulgaria, Bosnia, Croatia and Slovenia.

The Austrians also cherished a grudge against the Serbs, of much shorter duration, because of the activities of the Black Hand. Additionally, the Austrian Emperor, Franz Josef, had come to the throne in 1848, at the time of the socialist uprisings which were general in Europe, and the Austrians along with the Prussians had brutally repressed those uprisings. Franz Josef had not succeeded his uncle to the Imperial throne until the Austrians had fought in Bohemia, Italy and Hungary. The foreign minister von Berchtold could count on the support of the Emperor for almost any measure against the Serbs he might contemplate. Franz Josef was the last of the great reactionary monarchs of Europe (which is not to say that there weren't other reactionary monarchs, but none of his standing, certainly, in Europe). After the Vienna, 1815 settlement of Europe upon the final fall of Napoleon, the Russians, Prussians and Austrians had formed "the Holy Alliance," an alliance dedicated to reactionary monarchist policies. The master of the Vienna conference was Prince Metternich, and he remained the Austrian chancellor until the 1848 uprisings.

You basically have two pig-headed nations--Serbia and Austria--in the cockpit of the Balkans, and war was inevitable sooner or later. The only matter in which i diverge from Walter is that i believe it would have fallen out almost exactly as it did even if the Archduke and Sofie had not been killed.

Thanks for an interesting and thoughtful post, Setanta.
David