13
   

the universe and space....?

 
 
akaMechsmith
 
  1  
Reply Mon 25 Aug, 2003 08:27 pm
Ican Re your post of Aug 25, 10:10AM

"There is a problam here--- Naah, No Problem.

First-- "Luck" of the draw.
Second-- Many more decks of cards (genomes) on the table.

Example, to wit.
Before Dinosaurs there were probably no animicules specialized to handle Dinosaur manure. 130 million years later there were.
Lets go play BINGO at the fire hall. On the way I'll tell you a story.

A dirty little story, I believe it to be true and factual. Due to my lifes experiences I think that it is probably true.

A large multi stomached grazing ruminant (Cattle, Elk, Moose,Bison, Buffalo etc. in one year will place cowpies covering an area about equal to the ground that it requires for forage. In Africa and the American West a well developed "eco system" disposes of that manure (recycles it) within twenty minutes to one year thus freeing up the land and nutrients which otherwise would be covered in poop. Since no animal can survive in its own waste (a principle of winemaking with yeasts) this makes the maximum amount of forage availiable for the migratory gnus and caribu.
A non migratory elephants poop disappears in about twenty minutes in their normal environment.
In Australia a cowpie lasts about seven years severely limiting the amount of land availiable for forage. (until humans fairly recently imported a species of bacteria capable of helping with the disposal problem). This bacteria does not live in the cow but it must live with the cow. Thus this bacteria was not availiable till there were cows.
So because there were dinosaurs there were genomes around that were not there before the dinosaurs.

I realize that this is a really shitty arguement. Embarrassed

To your next comment. Maybe cockroaches contain a modicum of the Intelligence that we call "life". Also Prions, viruses and probably others we haven't noticed.

Directed chance, Nope not without a director Exclamation

Selected chance I could live with. The Selector being the simple life force I mentioned earlier.
Or perhaps its just natural selection.
That would be infinite (if the Cosmos is), Eternal (same reservation)
Supreme ( all encompassing with the same reservation). The prime mover with respect to intelligence.
Whatever we call it IMO it screws up probability theory something awful. Probably past recovery. Just as the realization that "time" must always move faster than light has screwed up my "red shift" calculations. For now Shocked

Now lets play Bingo. We are kind of early but the caller is willing to call for just the two of us to warm up. Straight game, no free corners etc.

A rhetorical question----

Now- What are the average number of calls that he must make each game with only our two cards out? With ten cards out? with fifty cards, with a hundred cards, with all possible cards out.

I think that we may have found God but I have always been afraid that neither Moses or Pat Robertson would recognize Him. Sad He is calling Bingo games. Laughing Best
0 Replies
 
akaMechsmith
 
  1  
Reply Mon 25 Aug, 2003 08:27 pm
Ican Re your post of Aug 25, 10:10AM

"There is a problam here--- Naah, No Problem.

First-- "Luck" of the draw.
Second-- Many more decks of cards (genomes) on the table.

Example, to wit.
Before Dinosaurs there were probably no animicules specialized to handle Dinosaur manure. 130 million years later there were.
Lets go play BINGO at the fire hall. On the way I'll tell you a story.

A dirty little story, I believe it to be true and factual. Due to my lifes experiences I think that it is probably true.

A large multi stomached grazing ruminant (Cattle, Elk, Moose,Bison, Buffalo etc. in one year will place cowpies covering an area about equal to the ground that it requires for forage. In Africa and the American West a well developed "eco system" disposes of that manure (recycles it) within twenty minutes to one year thus freeing up the land and nutrients which otherwise would be covered in poop. Since no animal can survive in its own waste (a principle of winemaking with yeasts) this makes the maximum amount of forage availiable for the migratory gnus and caribu.
A non migratory elephants poop disappears in about twenty minutes in their normal environment.
In Australia a cowpie lasts about seven years severely limiting the amount of land availiable for forage. (until humans fairly recently imported a species of bacteria capable of helping with the disposal problem). This bacteria does not live in the cow but it must live with the cow. Thus this bacteria was not availiable till there were cows.
So because there were dinosaurs there were genomes around that were not there before the dinosaurs.

I realize that this is a really shitty arguement. Embarrassed

To your next comment. Maybe cockroaches contain a modicum of the Intelligence that we call "life". Also Prions, viruses and probably others we haven't noticed.

Directed chance, Nope not without a director Exclamation

Selected chance I could live with. The Selector being the simple life force I mentioned earlier.
Or perhaps its just natural selection.
That would be infinite (if the Cosmos is), Eternal (same reservation)
Supreme ( all encompassing with the same reservation). The prime mover with respect to intelligence.
Whatever we call it IMO it screws up probability theory something awful. Probably past recovery. Just as the realization that "time" must always move faster than light has screwed up my "red shift" calculations. For now Shocked

Now lets play Bingo. We are kind of early but the caller is willing to call for just the two of us to warm up. Straight game, no free corners etc.

A rhetorical question----

Now- What are the average number of calls that he must make each game with only our two cards out? With ten cards out? with fifty cards, with a hundred cards, with all possible cards out.

I think that we may have found God but I have always been afraid that neither Moses or Pat Robertson would recognize Him. Sad He is calling Bingo games. Laughing Best
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 25 Aug, 2003 08:36 pm
mech, Many third world countries use cow pies as fuel. Saw a peanut vendor in India cooking peanuts over a cow pie. Wink
0 Replies
 
BoGoWo
 
  1  
Reply Mon 25 Aug, 2003 09:39 pm
I'll bet ican has a "system", for his visits to the 'casino'. Embarrassed

and, being based on 'directed chance', i bet he never wins! Rolling Eyes
0 Replies
 
akaMechsmith
 
  1  
Reply Mon 25 Aug, 2003 09:42 pm
Ican, Now this is naught but BELIEF (faith perhaps) Take it with the required (your choice) amount of salt.

It is more probable that the Cosmos (Whatam) never began, rather than to hypothesize a Big Bang or a Creator.

The evidence for the Expanding Universe is at best ambiguous. At worst hypocritical. (Not following my friend Albert to its logical conclusion)

It is more probable that naturally selected chances can explain us today than to hypothesise a Director which may be divine.

It is more probable that "Intelligence" of a modest sort is inherent in some combinations of elements, Rather than hypothesize a Cosmic Intelligence. (some experiments with crystallized viruses seem to indicate that) Maybe, it's also ambiguous.

I agree wholeheartedly with your tag line. Probability must suffice.
But I think also that "possibilities must be reduced as far as possible"
Actually reducing possibilities and increasing probabilities and certainties is what education is all about.

I also think that when considering "probabilities" we must evaluate all the "possibilities" that we can.

I also think that Frank has a very valid point. Simply because humans exist does not imply that we are any sort of a goal. Merely an unremarkable result of the laws of physics as they have existed forever. Perhaps unique, but probably basically similar to the results of other galaxies, other times, other places.

I can deal with that. Some can't . Simply another result of naturally selected chances within an infinity and an eternity.

Do you remember the little boxes that we used to set on our desks? The ones that when you pushed a button an arm came out and pushed the button again and it shut itself off.
Simply having a Cosmos as a mechanical device also does not imply that there is any purpose to it. Needs no builder, no mechanic.It just is, thats all. Best, Mech
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 25 Aug, 2003 09:44 pm
As for elephant dung, the driver-guide we had in Hwange National Park in Zimbabwe last year, picked up a six month old elephant dung, dug out a nut, and let us eat the nut meat. He explained to us the age of the elephant by the size of the twigs in the dung. The smaller twigs meant the elephant was young; he still had good teeth and able to chew his food better. Smile
0 Replies
 
akaMechsmith
 
  1  
Reply Mon 25 Aug, 2003 10:10 pm
CI,
Thats one way of freeing up grazing land. Humans are part of the ecology in that system.

Unfortunetly it impoverishes the ground and subsequently the people.
Practices like that by people who should have known better have already desertified the Middle East. Similar processes are also going on in the US, Canada, the Amazon Basin, Equatorial Africa and probably others.

I am afraid that lazy stupid notions like that are going to deny the stars to the intelligences of this solar system.
The notion that some God will rescue humans from the inexorable laws of physics (Armageddon) has IMO been very deleterious to humanity in general. I am afraid that Revelations will be a "self fulfulling prophecy"

Too bad! The potential loss of the stars bothers me a lot more than the personal superstitions of a bloody bunch of theologists.
But I have already conceded to a little paranoia Confused Best, M
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 26 Aug, 2003 03:15 pm
akaMechsmith wrote:
Directed chance, Nope not without a director Exclamation

Selected chance I could live with. The Selector being the simple life force I mentioned earlier.
Or perhaps its just natural selection.


Selected Chance? Hmmmm. I like it. One caveat: let's agree not to further discuss what does the selecting.

SELECTED CHANCE it is! :wink:


akaMechsmith wrote:
Whatever we call it IMO it screws up probability theory something awful. Probably past recovery.


IMO, too. Shocked
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 26 Aug, 2003 03:28 pm
BoGoWo wrote:
I'll bet ican has a "system", for his visits to the 'casino'. Embarrassed

and, being based on 'directed chance', i bet he never wins! Rolling Eyes


Yes, how did you guess it? It's a sure thing. Always bet someone else's money! Laughing Never lose a dime -- so to speak.

In our only visit to Las Vegas to attend an engineering conference, my wife and I had previously agreed we wouldn't gamble, but merely enjoy the great shows and the great food. While strolling and observing others play the slots, I CHANCED upon a dime on the floor. No one I showed it claimed it. Then I moved immediately to the nearest slot machine. My wife said you promised. I said I promised not to gamble; that is, not to gamble our money; this is found money. She withdrew her objection and I bet the dime -- all we had that wasn't our money. I lost it all! Crying or Very sad

A little later we watched several poker games. A shill approached me and asked if I wanted in one of 'em. I said no, the sheep don't get in with the wolves. The shill bent close and growled: THEY'RE ALL SHEEP HERE BUDDY.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 26 Aug, 2003 04:17 pm
akaMechsmith wrote:
Do you remember the little boxes that we used to set on our desks? The ones that when you pushed a button an arm came out and pushed the button again and it shut itself off.
Simply having a Cosmos as a mechanical device also does not imply that there is any purpose to it. Needs no builder, no mechanic.It just is, thats all.


I remember them! Some one gave me one that ran on batteries. Press the button, and the box opened and a large ugly hand came out and pressed the button again. The first button push opened the box, and the second withdrew the hand and closed the box.

Now for some fun!

Something built that box and someting else gave it to me.
Something else put batteries in that box for me.
I am the one who (most of the time) pressed the button the first of its two times per cycle.

Clearly, OOU is a kind of button push box. Laughing
It's finite and must be activiated by Selected Chance.
But what built it and supplies its batteries? Shocked Confused Rolling Eyes



Rolling Eyes For no particular reason, yet, I supply you with the following: Confused

The total number of possible sequences of 52 different cards is approximately = 8.065817517 x 10^67.

The total number of possible sequences of 69 different cards is approximately = 1.711224524 x 10^98.

So given a 52 card deck, how many times must I deal all 52 cards before the chances of geting a particular sequence twice is a googolth.

10^(-100) = Deals/((8.065817517 x 10^67)^2)

Deals = 10^(-100) x (8.065817517 x 10^67)^2 = 65.05741222 x 10^34.

What would you suspect, if a particular sequence appeared in 100 deals, Z times? Obviously the answer would depend on the value of Z, wouldn't it? Pick a value for Z less than 100.

Just wondering Exclamation
0 Replies
 
akaMechsmith
 
  1  
Reply Tue 26 Aug, 2003 07:58 pm
Ican,
Selected Chance it is. Now I can foresee a long series of threads aimed at deciding how much Selected Chance (who shall remain undescribed for now) skews probability theory.

In humans it is alleged that a two% survival advantage will result in the complete supplanting of a given population in a thousand years.

How much of a load does one have to put into a pair of dice in order to screw up probabilities?

How much does Selected Chance have to interfere with Random Interaction in order to make OOU work in your time frame?

Re the shut off box.
Again IMO you are having trouble with my friend infinity. The box is a human construction. Everything that we are accustomed to seeing is a construction within the Cosmos. Every number we know is part of the set of numbers. We never deal with an infinite number of things--- Except here! I found it very difficult to imagine an Infinity. My mind kept trying to put a beginning or an end to one. I suspect that your is also. But simply because we can't imagine an infinite thing does not imply that one cannot exist.
Obviously we are not the only two humans who have difficulty with that concept. Most cosmologists postulate a beginning and forsee an end. For no good reason I might add.
Einstein and Karl Sagan were forced to refer to "the Old Ones".
Indian religion imagines other "planes of existence"
Mathematical thought postulates other "dimensions"
Jews and Christians delegate infinities to God.
Pure Buddism seems to be the only major thought system which assumes a material infinity (but disregards it). But that line of thought is so bastardized and fragmented that I doubt even Budda would recognize most Buddists to say nothing of the various offshoots. Shinto, Hare Krishna, etc.
A whole lot of perception is wrapped up in ones mind. Sometimes the brain doesn't have much to say about it. Sad

Probability will suffice as to the Cosmos---There is no end to it; Probably. :wink: Happ-y thoughts. M
0 Replies
 
akaMechsmith
 
  1  
Reply Tue 26 Aug, 2003 08:15 pm
Ican,
Your comment" It's finite and must be activated by Selected Chance" is what lead to my comment on Infinity.

IMO OOU is only OOU due to the nature of light and the position of the observer. It is only an unremarkable part of the Cosmos (Whatam) were you to step back a piece and look.

A rainbow is a rainbow only due to the nature of light and the position of the observer.

You just wanted to see if I have mellowed in my dotage, right. Smile
0 Replies
 
akaMechsmith
 
  1  
Reply Tue 26 Aug, 2003 08:17 pm
PS, Im glad you supplied the card arguement fo "no particular reason"
I don't understand the math but I suspect a mistake in the English.. M
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 26 Aug, 2003 10:05 pm
ican, The math doesn't look right to me; and I'm not good at math. I think the forumula is a factor reduced by the number of cards dealt, and repeating this until all the cards are dealt. c.i.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Aug, 2003 07:29 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
ican, The math doesn't look right to me; and I'm not good at math. I think the forumula is a factor reduced by the number of cards dealt, and repeating this until all the cards are dealt. c.i.


My calculator computes factorials (n!) infallibly. Smile
Maybe my choice of the factorial function is what's fallible. Rolling Eyes We'll see. Confused

I claim that the number of possible different sequences of 5 different cards = 5! = 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 120: that's 5 choices for the 1st card dealt, 4 choices for the 2nd card dealt, 3 choices for 3rd card dealt, 2 choices for the 4th card dealt, 1 choice for the 5th card dealt. :wink:

For 10 different cards it's 10! = 10 x 9 x 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 3,628,800. :wink:

For 52 different cards it's 52! = approximately 8.065817517 x 10^67.

For 69 different cards it's 69! = approximately 1.711224524 x 10^98.

For 70 different cards it's 70! = approximately 1.197857167 x 10^100. :wink:
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Aug, 2003 07:34 pm
Mech, there's two things you can be sure of. If I knew either of us was wrong, I'd say so. If I knew I either of us was right, I'd say so.

My conclusion is .......................... . I ain't gonna say!
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Aug, 2003 07:38 pm
Ican, Each card is unique; the first card drawn is one out of 52. When you're trying to draw a poker hand of five cards, the odds are 120 out of a possible distribution of what number? It necessarily requires that the factor takes into consideration what cards were already passed out to the other players. So what is the possibility of drawing a straight flush? c.i.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Aug, 2003 07:50 pm
Eureka! Here's the odds on the five card draw poker. Rank of Hands
Number of Possible Ways Hand Can Be Made
Chance of Being Dealt in Original 5 Cards


Royal Flush 4 1 in 649,740.00

Straight Flush 36 1 in 72,193.33

Four of a Kind 624 1 in 4,165.00

Full House 3,744 1 in 694.16

Flush 5,108 1 in 508.80

Straight 10,200 1 in 254.80

Three of a Kind 54,912 1 in 47.32

Two Pairs 123,552 1 in 21.03

One Pair 1,098,240 1 in 2.36

No Pair Hand 1,302,540 1 in 1.99

Okay, anybody wanna play? Wink c.i.
Total
2,598,960
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Aug, 2003 07:51 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
So what is the possibility of drawing a straight flush? c.i.


Drawing 5 cards out of a 52 card deck, what is the probability of drawing a straight flush? There are a great many possible 5 CARD sequences that constitute drawing a straight flush (e.g., AKQJ10, 10AQJK, 10JQKA... 23456, 43652, 65432). What I ask you to do is compute the total number of ways one can draw a straight flush SF. Then I will provide you the total number of possible sequences PS of 5 cards that can be drawn from a 52 card deck. Then we will use my infallible calculator to compute SF/PS. That will be the probability you are looking for. Smile
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Aug, 2003 08:02 pm
1 in 72,000
0 Replies
 
 

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