13
   

the universe and space....?

 
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Aug, 2003 08:03 pm
There are 36 ways to draw a straight flush - per above chart. c.i.
0 Replies
 
BoGoWo
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Aug, 2003 08:15 pm
"chance selection"
0 Replies
 
Terry
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Aug, 2003 10:25 pm
Ican, if your goal is to be dealt a winning hand, there are many possible combinations and sequences that can win. Some not-so-good hands will win as long as no one else is dealt a better one.

And the order of the cards remaining in the deck makes no difference whatsoever.

Sound familiar?

Any protein that works is a winner, even if it is not the optimum configuration.
You do not need any particular sequence of amino acids in most of a protein as long as the right bits are sticking out.

Although human DNA represents the hand that was dealt, there are myriad other possible winning hands. Any sequence of DNA is a winner if it enables its bearer to survive and produce grandchildren. The ape family happened to come up with the first royal flush, but a sentient species could just as well have evolved from rodents or cats.

Predation, starvation, disease, disaster, and non-selection by potential mates are non-random forces that determine which DNA sequences are out of the game. Whoever is left "wins" by default, the winners' children take their seats and the game goes on.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2003 11:36 am
Terry wrote:

Any protein that works is a winner, even if it is not the optimum configuration.
You do not need any particular sequence of amino acids in most of a protein as long as the right bits are sticking out.

Although human DNA represents the hand that was dealt, there are myriad other possible winning hands. Any sequence of DNA is a winner if it enables its bearer to survive and produce grandchildren. The ape family happened to come up with the first royal flush, but a sentient species could just as well have evolved from rodents or cats.

Predation, starvation, disease, disaster, and non-selection by potential mates are non-random forces that determine which DNA sequences are out of the game. Whoever is left "wins" by default, the winners' children take their seats and the game goes on.


Terry, I agree with what you have written here. I do not agree with what you appear to me to be inferring from what you have written here.

I realize you are aware of almost all I shall write subsequently.

The human genome, metaphorically speaking, contains millions of <cards> strung out in sequence. There are only four different kinds of <cards> in the human genome, say AKQJ. It is the actual sequence of those <cards> in the human's zygote genome that determines what shall be formed over the approximately 36 week gestation period. In particular, the mouse's zygote genome determines that a mouse's brain shall be formed over its gestation period. The human zygote genome determines that a human's brain shall be formed over its gestation period.

Only about 1% of those subsequences of cards in the genome specify amino acid configurations that specify relevant protein configurations, so fewer still specify the respective brains that ultimately result. Regardless, the number of relevant <cards> in those relevant sequences that specify our brain is of such size as to make undirected chance plus natural selection probably insufficient for evolving the human brain.

Human brains differ. But all functioning human brains perform pretty much the same functions. This is true, because of relevant and complex close similarities in the sequences of <cards> in our genomes.

Those relevant and complex close genome similarities are persistent. That is, they are found in procreation after procreation of normal human brains. The aggregate total lengths of these repeatedly procreated relevant <card> sequences for the human brain is not yet known. All that is known is that their aggregate length is substantially more than 1,826. Shocked

================================
CALCULATION

4 = 10^0.602059991

Total number of possible relevant sequences = 4^1,825.399489 = (10^0.602059991)^ (1,825.399489) = (10^(0.602059991 x 1,825.399489) = 10^1,099.

Assume 10^99 genome edits (e.g., mutations, <card> redeals) occurred per trillion years to form the first viable genome and finally the human genome, then the probability of getting the right sequence via undirected chance and natural selection is less than,

10^99 / (10^1099) = 10^(-1000) = a "thoogolth".

There are only 3.1125600 x 10^7 seconds in the average year, and only 3.1125600 x 10^19 seconds in a trillion years. Let's assume an average rate of viable procreations to be 3.212789472^43 (a little more than a Planck rate) per second. Then we would have about 10^53 viable procreations per trillion years. So where did I get the other 10^(99-53) procreations per trillion years? I invented 10^46 planets in our universe all as capable of evolving life as our earth. :wink:
================================

Yes, I realize I grossly underestimated the number of relevant <cards> in the human genome (denominator), and grossly overestimated the number of genome edits (numerator) over the actual history of the earth. So, I'll be pleased to recalculate using your estimates backed up by your respected scientific sources. Smile
0 Replies
 
Frank Apisa
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2003 02:25 pm
ican711nm wrote:
Terry wrote:

Any protein that works is a winner, even if it is not the optimum configuration.
You do not need any particular sequence of amino acids in most of a protein as long as the right bits are sticking out.

Although human DNA represents the hand that was dealt, there are myriad other possible winning hands. Any sequence of DNA is a winner if it enables its bearer to survive and produce grandchildren. The ape family happened to come up with the first royal flush, but a sentient species could just as well have evolved from rodents or cats.

Predation, starvation, disease, disaster, and non-selection by potential mates are non-random forces that determine which DNA sequences are out of the game. Whoever is left "wins" by default, the winners' children take their seats and the game goes on.


Terry, I agree with what you have written here. I do not agree with what you appear to me to be inferring from what you have written here.

I realize you are aware of almost all I shall write subsequently.

The human genome, metaphorically speaking, contains millions of <cards> strung out in sequence. There are only four different kinds of <cards> in the human genome, say AKQJ. It is the actual sequence of those <cards> in the human's zygote genome that determines what shall be formed over the approximately 36 week gestation period. In particular, the mouse's zygote genome determines that a mouse's brain shall be formed over its gestation period. The human zygote genome determines that a human's brain shall be formed over its gestation period.

Only about 1% of those subsequences of cards in the genome specify amino acid configurations that specify relevant protein configurations, so fewer still specify the respective brains that ultimately result. Regardless, the number of relevant <cards> in those relevant sequences that specify our brain is of such size as to make undirected chance plus natural selection probably insufficient for evolving the human brain.

Human brains differ. But all functioning human brains perform pretty much the same functions. This is true, because of relevant and complex close similarities in the sequences of <cards> in our genomes.

Those relevant and complex close genome similarities are persistent. That is, they are found in procreation after procreation of normal human brains. The aggregate total lengths of these repeatedly procreated relevant <card> sequences for the human brain is not yet known. All that is known is that their aggregate length is substantially more than 1,826. Shocked

================================
CALCULATION

4 = 10^0.602059991

Total number of possible relevant sequences = 4^1,825.399489 = (10^0.602059991)^ (1,825.399489) = (10^(0.602059991 x 1,825.399489) = 10^1,099.

Assume 10^99 genome edits (e.g., mutations, <card> redeals) occurred per trillion years to form the first viable genome and finally the human genome, then the probability of getting the right sequence via undirected chance and natural selection is less than,

10^99 / (10^1099) = 10^(-1000) = a "thoogolth".

There are only 3.1125600 x 10^7 seconds in the average year, and only 3.1125600 x 10^19 seconds in a trillion years. Let's assume an average rate of viable procreations to be 3.212789472^43 (a little more than a Planck rate) per second. Then we would have about 10^53 viable procreations per trillion years. So where did I get the other 10^(99-53) procreations per trillion years? I invented 10^46 planets in our universe all as capable of evolving life as our earth. :wink:
================================

Yes, I realize I grossly underestimated the number of relevant <cards> in the human genome (denominator), and grossly overestimated the number of genome edits (numerator) over the actual history of the earth. So, I'll be pleased to recalculate using your estimates backed up by your respected scientific sources. Smile



Try to understand this, Ican.

No matter what number you come up with -- you cannot logically use that number to determine that it is probable that INTELLIGENCE (or anything else) had to influence the evolution in order to arrive at where we are.

You simply cannot logically do that.

That is a corruption of probability theory.
0 Replies
 
Frank Apisa
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2003 02:27 pm
Looks like we may have another pagination problem here.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2003 03:42 pm
Frank Apisa wrote:
Try to understand this, Ican.

No matter what number you come up with -- you cannot logically use that number to determine that it is probable that INTELLIGENCE (or anything else) had to influence the evolution in order to arrive at where we are.

You simply cannot logically do that.

That is a corruption of probability theory..


I agree that a small probability of the occurrence of an evolutionary event does not in it self "determine that it is probable that INTELLIGENCE (or anything else) had to influence the evolution in order to arrive at where we are."

I also agree "that a small probability of the occurrence of an evolutionary event does not in it self "determine that it is probable that INTELLIGENCE (or anything else) [probably influenced] the evolution in order to arrive at where we are."

Now it's your turn!

Try to understand this, Frank.

(It will help you to understand if you read, contemplate and understand the whole statement)

1. No mutation will survive natural selection unless it is successfully procreated.
2. No mutation will be successfully procreated unless it first occurs and is not deadly.
3. It is alleged that mutations occur by undirected chance.
4. For that to be true, the frequency of occurrence of any mutations must be proportional to the probability of its random occurence.
5. If a particular set of mutations repeatedly occur over a long time period that are not proportional to the probability of their random occurrence, then one can rationally suspect some mechanism other than random occurrence.
6. Our prime suspect is natural selection and the survival of those organisms most fit for the environment in which they occur.
7. However, scientists have uncovered a number of anomalies not explainable by the prime suspect.
8. One of these anomalies is the propensity of living organisms to evolve into more complex forms that were subsequently destroyed by environmental catastrophes.
9. Another anomaly is the propensity of the more complex organisms to be more intelligent than the less complex even though that propensity fails to equip them with the ability to more probably survive natural disasters.
10. Another anomaly is the decline in the diversity of species (i.e., sets of organisms that cannot procreate with other sets of organisms) with the evolution of humans (diversity of species hit a maximum shortly before the evolution of humans and has been rapidly declining over the 200,000 years of our existence.)
11. Another anomaly is the non-evolution of more intelligent species than us, or more intelligent than other existing species, over the last 200,000 years.

Why this relentless evolution of species whose fitness for survival can't even match that of cockroaches followed by a rapid decline in the number of different species after our arrival?

Of course, one can easily explain away anomalies 8 thru 11 without resort to probability calculations that show our occurrence is an unlikely random occurrence. Clearly some of our early ancestors must have been driving big gas guzzling SUVs earlier than we thought.
0 Replies
 
JLNobody
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2003 06:26 pm
truth
Ican, save your breath. Everyone here knows that Evolution (natural selection) only occurs on the Galapagos Islands. Laughing
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2003 06:33 pm
Re: truth
JLNobody wrote:
Ican, save your breath. Everyone here knows that Evolution (natural selection) only occurs on the Galapagos Islands. Laughing


Yes, and its all talk about birds as dumb as their ancestors Laughing Hmmmmm Confused Well, at least all us humans can procreate with each other; so there! Razz
0 Replies
 
akaMechsmith
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2003 07:17 pm
Ican, Damned if I know either, but I defer to your tag line.
Facts, stated as such, and differentiated from beliefs, theories, wishes, hopes, and dreams may possibly lead us to some truths. A little truth may help to forestall Armageddon and let our grandkids reach for the stars. (thus securing an infinity Smile for our genome) Possibly of course.
Best wishes, M
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2003 07:24 pm
I know that GWBush is a mutation, and has a knack for survival, but........
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2003 07:42 pm
akaMechsmith wrote:
... A little truth may help to forestall Armageddon and let our grandkids reach for the stars. (thus securing an infinity Smile for our genome) Possibly of course.


I like the way you think whether we agree or disagree.

Remember the late Senator Dirkson's classic remark: "a billion here, a billion there; before you know it we'll be talking real money?"

How about: A moogol here, a moogol there; before you know it our grandkids will be cruising real space?
0 Replies
 
Frank Apisa
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2003 07:46 pm
You cannot logically use probability theory the way you are, Ican.

Deal with it.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2003 07:49 pm
Deal the cards, and shut up! Wink
0 Replies
 
akaMechsmith
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2003 07:59 pm
Ican, (pagination problem here also)

Lets move on. You have argued and I have found a basic intelligence (of sorts) inherent in the OOU.

I have agreed that it is very improbable that life as we KNOW Laughing it would have occurred without selected chance.

As your friendly mechanic I have noted that some proteins"just do it naturally". They can't help it!

I am willing to call that characteristic of some naturally occurring compounds intelligence. Or life force. Are you Question

If you can show that this would skew probability theory enough to result in our current observations in a finite Cosmos then that quest would probably be worthwhile. But maybe not. Confused

If you can't, and so far no candidate or mechanism of "Supreme intelligence" has shown up then we should probably investigate the "Probability of an Infinity"

I'm gonna anyways! Just seems more probable to me. Smile Perhaps, M
0 Replies
 
akaMechsmith
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2003 08:10 pm
A step here, a step there and a googol of steps will bring us to the middle of OOU. Pretty soon we'll get someplace just like home.

"The longest journey begins with a single step" (memory fails Smile )
0 Replies
 
JLNobody
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2003 09:13 pm
truth
AKAMechaSmith, I've always uncomfortable about the way we most often use the term "facts" to differentiate something solid/hard and certain from theories which are seen as ethereal/soft and speculative. I find most facts not to be BRUTE, RAW, or NAKED entities. I see them as "little theories", laden with tacit assumptions and always occuring in implicit theoretical contexts that give them their meaning.
0 Replies
 
akaMechsmith
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Aug, 2003 06:31 am
JL, I have also made that same observation. That is why, earlier in this thread I attempted to come up with some things that probably exist whether humans percieve them or not. That IMO would be something to build upon in any discussion of "Universe and space". As we have noticed, it sometimes is difficult to separate "fact from assumption".

Probably Smile worth the effort though. M
0 Replies
 
BoGoWo
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Aug, 2003 07:42 am
I personally find the use of 'facts' and even 'theories', useful in progressing to a closer 'understanding' of 'reality'.
And, most important, when using such 'information' and arriving at results that 'beg questions', i also see no problem whatever, in going back and examining the source material, to acertain if possible where the logic of the process went ary.

To try to maintain an arm's length distrust of all "known" information, is both tedious, and wastefull of intelligent energy, in progressing toward assessable theoretical structures, using such information for its foundations.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Aug, 2003 09:09 am
akaMechsmith wrote:
Ican, (pagination problem here also)

As your friendly mechanic I have noted that some proteins"just do it naturally". They can't help it!

I am willing to call that characteristic of some naturally occurring compounds intelligence. Or life force. Are you Question


As your friendly aviator, I have noted that lots of events once thought to be supernaturally caused have been discovered to be naturally caused. Yes, there's cause to guess that a lot that takes place in OOU, is the consequence of OOU's natural autopilots (calm down Frank, that was just a metaphor). Laughing

Those compounds you refer to may not be all that constitutes the life force; then again they may. It's my guess that they are enough to influence the odds sufficiently. When I define God by default to be OOU, that's exactly the kind of thing I have in mind: that is, there is something about the stuff of OOU that just does it all naturally. There's nothing supernatural about it. Of course, transcribing OOU's "word" takes on a whole new meaning: namely discovering and recording how the stuff of OOU does it naturally.

akaMechsmith wrote:
If you can show that this would skew probability theory enough to result in our current observations in a finite Cosmos then that quest would probably be worthwhile. But maybe not. Confused


I cannot do that; I currently lack sufficient valid data to do that. However, I can compute what effect the <just doing it naturally stuff> must have in order to increase the probability from about a moogolth to a googolth. I'll work on it.
0 Replies
 
 

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