kickycan wrote:Actually, thanks for reminding me, Jane. I wanted to ask about that.
I wanted to ask the real poker players here if the importance of being able to read people is actually as important as people seem to think. I mean, it looks as if you (Bill, Craven) just know and play the odds, depending on what you have, irrespective of what you think another player is going to do. Am I off-base here, or is that how it is when you get to the higher levels of play?
Consider
just knowing the odds a pre-req to playing good poker. Before even starting; you should be able to identify the top few tiers of starting hands instantly, but understand no hand is 4 times more likely to beat
any other. Know how likely they are. Know how well they hold up against 1, 2 and 3 callers. Next learn to count your "outs" so that after the flop; you know what the odds are of attaining a powerful hand. Consider every other hand that can be built from that flop (your 4 cards to a straight aren't worth dick if there's 3 hearts in the flop). Know how to figure your pot odds; If there's $50 in the pot (post flop), and it costs you $5 to continue with 8 outs, your pot odds are nearly 2 to 1 (1/10 Vs 8/47). If it costs you $50 to continue; your pot odds are less than 1 in 5 (1 Vs 8/47)(so you usually fold that outside straight draw).
In tourney play; it is equally important to measure your stack against opponents. If you're holding a commanding stack; you can push people out of more hands with less potential in your hand. If you're riding a short stack; your threshold for risk diminishes accordingly (until it's all or nothing time)(5 to 10 times the big blind)(fold those pocket Kings rather than calling the big stack's all in pre-flop). You can't win in the middle of the tourney; so don't put all your chips at risk unless you're reasonably sure you're already holding the winning hand (impossible, preflop).
This is a sampling of odds to know, just to get started. There's plenty more available all over the internet. Assume that every good player understands these basic principles.
You'll notice the WPT is dominated by accountants, former business people etc. that are naturally good with numbers. These people purposely or subconsciously record everything. How many flops does so and so see? How willing are they to be run over? Does he seem to understand the value of position? Is there a distinguishable pattern to how he capitalizes on it? At any level; you'll make better gambles if you know the odds of your hand being best... but there's only two pocket cards in your hand. You have to try to record all of the other information at the table as well. Now imagine being a good enough student of people to record their habits and actions to compliment that knowledge. Some of this is obvious: Joe only bets with top pair or better, Jack can't fold trips to save his life, Jim talks more when he's bluffing, John looks angry when he's trapping, Jennifer acts fast when she's holding a monster, Jacob only acts slow when he has a tough equation, etc.
Next up is the human lie detector. This I assume you either have or don't have, though you can refine it by absorbing proven techniques. Top pros seem to be uncanny at the reading their opponents. It is equally important to not be read. Are you a good liar? A common trick to mask your own tendency to give yourself away is to choose a hand to 'represent' somewhat randomly. Pick a hand that can be made or not made from the flop; and pretend that's what you are defending.
Defend your made hands by betting sufficiently that most fisherman fold before the next card is turned. But remember that no strategy and no amount of study will prevent the donkey sitting next to you from calling your all in and hitting his inside straight on the river. Lower stake games see more of this, because lower stake card players aren't as good. They tend to lack the knowledge or discipline to fold when they should. This is especially important in Tourney play; because playing mathematically correct poker isn't going to buy you dinner if you get knocked out by someone doing it wrong (which you will, most of the time).
To answer the original question; I would say the importance of reading your opponent increases with the level of your competition. The better your opponents; the more likely they are as capable as you are of playing mathematically correct poker (which I have to have to assume; the vast majority of Pro's are capable of). I think in home games; mathematically correct poker alone
is sufficient to win more often than not. This is precisely the reason I have no idea whether or not my own game is good enough to compete with someone like Craven's.
Question for Craven of my own: what percentage of players at your level are truly pro-caliber players Vs. home game hero's and outright donkeys?
