The Idiot's Guide to The Super Bowl Game Game

Bear over the Colts

No idea of a score but~~~will try Bears 24 Colts 21

Mrs. Cowdoc

Thanks for the call last week JPB. Really enjoyed our talk. Try to get to Salmon some day & we can see some pretty counrty.

Football is definitely not my sport, and while these games at a2k (Road to New Orleans and Yahoo Fantasy League) did somewhat make my interest grow. I only watched two full quarters, numbers 2 and 4 of the Chargers-Patriots game, this season. I thought I was gonna gloom over the Chargers loss (almost my hometown), but it was nowhere near how I felt when the Padres lost.

I normally don't watch the SB, the only times I do is when I'm at someone else's home and they watch the game. Some tv-ads are nice but I wouldn't see the whole game just for the ads.

Mrs. Cowdoc has smoothed things over with Sublime.

Sublime: Both of my daughters predict that the Bears will win. (i still haven't changed my prediction. i have a bad feeling that the colts will win.)

Why is it never the better of two goods?

Win or lose, I'm providing the blue.

did you forget who's playing?

Is this a hypothetical question?

DA BEARS!

31 - 24.

I calculated an average for 20 predictions made on this thread. A2K predicts a final score of Colts 25 - Bears 23.

(I did not average in joefromchicago's prediction because it seemed like he was joking. However, sublime's moderately extreme prediction in favor of the Bears and kickycan's moderately extreme prediction in favor of the Colts have both been averaged in.)

Well, as long as they're moderately extreme and not extremely extreme,
I guess that's OK.

Extremely extreme would be joefromchicago's prediction, an item of data that would be considered an "outlier" by statisticians.

I've made some that have been classified as "outright liar."

joe joke? Surely, you jest!

Same here, Terrie. And, be sure to let us know if you and/or doc ever get back to Chicago.

I am glad you saw my attempt at statistical inference, JPB.

Do you have a "SAS" program that could give us a better idea of what A2K is leaning towards on the Super Bowl prediction?

Sure, but we should invite nimh over to give us a graph :wink:

As I recall from a statistics class I took, and didn't do very well in, a long time ago, there are different kinds of averages.

The one Wandeljw used is the most common. The Aritimetic Mean. Add up the scores predicted by the players and divide by the number of players. Wandeljw came us with the A2K consensus as being Colts (25) -Bears (23).

I did the same exercise (also excluding JPihicago but with 21 players). What I did was add up the points that those picking Indy thought Indy might score and I divided by the 11 of us who have Indy. Indy comes out at 31. Chicago, using the 10 players picking them, ends up at 30.

The problem with the Arithmetic Mean is that is can be drastically skewed by a wildly extreme pick, particularly if the number of players is small.

Another Average is called, I believe, the Median Average in which the picks are listed in ascending or descending order. And the one in the middle is the Average. Using this method, the pro-Indy folks have their team at 30 while the Bears are at 31.

There is another Average called, I believe (but I may be wrong) the Mode.
This is the number picked by the largest number of players going for Indy or Chicago. Three of us have Indy at 28. Two of us have Chicago at 31.

How mind-numbing and thread-stopping was that? And I think I just heard one of yall mutter, thank god we are rid of johnboy.

Remember: statistics don't lie. Statisticians do.

heh, let me know if you ever need a job, rjb.


Two truths in statistics and computing...

1) Garbage in = garbage out

2) In God we trust... all others bring data.

I resent having my prediction (Mini-Ditkas 86, Colts -2) dismissed as some kind of joke. I base it on irrefutable logic:

Bill Swerski: Now, gentlemen, let me ask you this: What if Da Bears were all 14 inches tall, you know, about so high? Now, what's your score of today's game? Carl Wollarski: Against Da Giants? Bill Swerski: Yes, give 'em a handicap. Carl Wollarski: Bears 18, Giants 10. And that would finally be a good game. Pat Arnold: Yeah, it would be a good game. Mini Bears 24, Giants 14. Todd O'Conner: What about Ditka? Would he be mini, too? Bill Swerski: No, he would be full-grown. Todd O'Conner: Oh, then, uh.. Mini Bears 31, Giants 7. Carl Wollarski: Oh, hold on. Then I change mine, too. I thought it was Mini Ditka.

Da Bears!

see? toldja