1
   

Ronald Reagan, a moron or a genius?

 
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Fri 15 Dec, 2006 07:57 am
Setanta wrote:
I was pointing out that inasmuch as no action of his lead to the collapse of the Marxist-Leninist version of communism as practiced in the Soviet Union and its eastern European satellites, you did not underestimate him.

So far, we mostly agree, because I'm not saying he affected anything, certainly not with that speech. If George pressed me, I might admit to him that Reagan sped up the fall of the Iron Curtain somewhat by intensifying the arms race. But I agree with you this would eventually have happened no matter what Reagan did; I find the remaining difference small enough as to not merit arguing about.

Setanta wrote:
He was calling for something which was inevitable based on the policies of Gorbachev, but which he no more knew would occur than did you at the time.

When people don't know, they judge. You're right Reagan and I both didn't know what was going on. Given this, he and I each made an incompletely informed judgment. His proved correct, mine incorrect. That's reason enough for me to admit that his judgment was better, whatever his motives for making it.
0 Replies
 
McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Fri 15 Dec, 2006 07:57 am
So, if Carter had been reelected and Mondale followed in 1984 nothing would have been different then? The USSR would have crumbled and the wall would have come down?

Somehow, I just don't buy that.
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Fri 15 Dec, 2006 08:14 am
Thomas wrote:
When people don't know, they judge. You're right Reagan and I both didn't know what was going on. Given this, he and I each made an incompletely informed judgment. His proved correct, mine incorrect. That's reason enough for me to admit that his judgment was better, whatever his motives for making it.


That's a reasonable statement. I should point out that i did not jump into this thread right away, because i neither consider Reagan to have been a genius nor a moron. I do think that his Presidency represents a bad time for the United States, for economic and foreign policy reasons. His administrations are more responsible for the strife in the middle east than are any other administrations, in my never humble opinion. I consider Reagan to have been an empty suit, however, and consider that it is highly likely that another conservative could have exploited the political disaffection of voters in the American South as easily as Reagan did. The fall of the Shah had, of course, already occurred, and i believe that would have been inevitable, even had it not occurred exactly when it did.

However, supporting the Iraqi Ba'ath regime against Iran, and the fiddle which sold spare parts to the Persians in order to get cash to support the Contras in Nicaragua was not necessarily going to have been the policy of any particular Republican administration just because they were Republican and conservative. Those policy decisions helped to create the contemporary middle eastern nightmare, and to continue the destabilization of Latin America. The 1973 CIA-supported coup against Allende served to encourage right-wing autocrats in Latin America, such as the military junta in Argentina--and that is something which certainly cannot be laid at Reagan's door. But Nicaragua, Panama and El Salvador certainly can be seen as the consequences of the policies of the Reagan administration.

Taken all in all, "Reaganomics" were exactly what the elder Bush said they were, voodoo economics. I consider that those economic polices, and the go-go Wall Street climate of the day helped to encourage the venality of corporate officers with which we still have to deal today. All sneers by conservative posters here taken aside, homelessness increased dramatically in the United States in the Reagan administration, and many of the "new" homeless were former home-owners, and families. The consequences of Reagan administration foreign policy are still with us today, and no good reason to assume that they contributed materially to the collapse of the Soviet Union--if they had any effect at all, it might have been to hasten that event, and i'm not even convinced of that.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Fri 15 Dec, 2006 10:22 am
edgarblythe wrote:
Wickipedia
This is a list of songs about former President of the United States Ronald Reagan. During the 1980s, many songs were written about Reagan, most of which reflected a negative view of him or his policies. The majority of these songs were written by hardcore punk bands, ....


Birds of a feather.....

What more need be said?
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Fri 15 Dec, 2006 12:24 pm
okie wrote:
edgarblythe wrote:
Wickipedia
This is a list of songs about former President of the United States Ronald Reagan. During the 1980s, many songs were written about Reagan, most of which reflected a negative view of him or his policies. The majority of these songs were written by hardcore punk bands, ....


Birds of a feather.....

What more need be said?


For once you almost said something intelligent- -but not quite.
0 Replies
 
Dartagnan
 
  1  
Reply Fri 15 Dec, 2006 12:48 pm
okie wrote:
edgarblythe wrote:
Wickipedia
This is a list of songs about former President of the United States Ronald Reagan. During the 1980s, many songs were written about Reagan, most of which reflected a negative view of him or his policies. The majority of these songs were written by hardcore punk bands, ....


Birds of a feather.....

What more need be said?


Meaning? Hardcore punk bands are evil? The Dead Kennedys did one chiding Jerry Brown. Don't take it so seriously, dude.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Fri 15 Dec, 2006 03:32 pm
Setanta,

While the details of the drama surrounding the collapse of the Soviet Empire are certainly interesting, they shouldn't be confused with the underlying causes. I believe you are confusing the two.

I agree with you that the inherent contradictions of the Soviet system had a great deal to do with its eventual fall. However that fall could easily have come fifty or so years later than it did, and not until a great deal more of destruction and suffering had been inflicted on the world. I believe that the assessment Reagan offered an astounded world about the "Evil Empire" early in his first term, and the many policies he pursued directly in accord with it over the following years, were decisive in causing the drama you describe with such emphasis, to have occurred in the early 1990s, rather than several decades later.

I know from direct experience and observation that, as early as 1983 we were consciously stimulating the Soviets to spend themselves into oblivion in attempting to match our military programs. The assessment then was that the huge Soviet investment in modern weapons that occurred throughout the 1970s was costing them about 28% of their GDP, (we later learned it was closer to 33%.) while ours cost 4% of GDP. The then explicitly stated theory was that if we increased the level to 4.8% (as we did), they would be unable to match us and would therefore either crack or change direction. This was a major departure from previous thinking on the matter, and it proved decisive.

Accompanying this was the decision to deploy Pershing cruise missiles in Europe as a response to Soviet deployment of SS-20s in Eastern Europe - and doing so in the face of significant (and misguided) local political opposition. This, together with our rearmament, made it clear to the Soviet leadership (in their self-described "Period of Stagnation") that they could not match a newly self-confident West.

I believe no one can doubt the loss of moral force and self confidence that infected the Soviet empire during the 1980s, emboldening the Poles to directly challenge the system and expose its contradictions and emptiness. The Pope & Margaret Thatcher had a lot to do with this -- as did President Reagan.

This was the situatiuon Gorbachev inherited and it was this that convinced him that internal reform and an accomodatiojn with the West were required. His problem was that the Soviet system was so cointrary to human nature that no reform could be sufficient - the system was doomed to fall.

Gorbachev merely presided over the relatively peaceful collapse of the Soviet Empire - he did not cause it or bring it about.
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Fri 15 Dec, 2006 05:47 pm
Everybody knew he was a dumbass.
0 Replies
 
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Fri 15 Dec, 2006 07:40 pm
Tangent, somewhat, but I wonder if you folks can approximate. What is our (US) new weapons expenditure to our GDP now, and what is the whole defense (and current offense) structure yearly cost re our GDP?

You'll perceive I don't really understand enough to ask a coherent question, but you may be able to comment.
0 Replies
 
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Fri 15 Dec, 2006 07:46 pm
On Reagan, he was an actor. Well meaning, from his point of view, which showed and was effective.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Fri 15 Dec, 2006 07:54 pm
ossobuco wrote:
Tangent, somewhat, but I wonder if you folks can approximate. What is our (US) new weapons expenditure to our GDP now, and what is the whole defense (and current offense) structure yearly cost re our GDP?

You'll perceive I don't really understand enough to ask a coherent question, but you may be able to comment.[/quotI believe our current defense expenditures are just under 3% of GDP, more if the Iraq operations are included.
0 Replies
 
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Fri 15 Dec, 2006 07:55 pm
Thanks, George.
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Sat 16 Dec, 2006 03:57 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
Setanta,

While the details of the drama surrounding the collapse of the Soviet Empire are certainly interesting, they shouldn't be confused with the underlying causes. I believe you are confusing the two.

I agree with you that the inherent contradictions of the Soviet system had a great deal to do with its eventual fall. However that fall could easily have come fifty or so years later than it did, and not until a great deal more of destruction and suffering had been inflicted on the world. I believe that the assessment Reagan offered an astounded world about the "Evil Empire" early in his first term, and the many policies he pursued directly in accord with it over the following years, were decisive in causing the drama you describe with such emphasis, to have occurred in the early 1990s, rather than several decades later.

I know from direct experience and observation that, as early as 1983 we were consciously stimulating the Soviets to spend themselves into oblivion in attempting to match our military programs. The assessment then was that the huge Soviet investment in modern weapons that occurred throughout the 1970s was costing them about 28% of their GDP, (we later learned it was closer to 33%.) while ours cost 4% of GDP. The then explicitly stated theory was that if we increased the level to 4.8% (as we did), they would be unable to match us and would therefore either crack or change direction. This was a major departure from previous thinking on the matter, and it proved decisive.

Accompanying this was the decision to deploy Pershing cruise missiles in Europe as a response to Soviet deployment of SS-20s in Eastern Europe - and doing so in the face of significant (and misguided) local political opposition. This, together with our rearmament, made it clear to the Soviet leadership (in their self-described "Period of Stagnation") that they could not match a newly self-confident West.

I believe no one can doubt the loss of moral force and self confidence that infected the Soviet empire during the 1980s, emboldening the Poles to directly challenge the system and expose its contradictions and emptiness. The Pope & Margaret Thatcher had a lot to do with this -- as did President Reagan.

This was the situatiuon Gorbachev inherited and it was this that convinced him that internal reform and an accomodatiojn with the West were required. His problem was that the Soviet system was so cointrary to human nature that no reform could be sufficient - the system was doomed to fall.

Gorbachev merely presided over the relatively peaceful collapse of the Soviet Empire - he did not cause it or bring it about.


The "relatively peaceful collapse of the Soviet Union" would not necessarily have occurred when it occurred without Gorbachev and his policies--but i do consider that it would have happened at sometime around that time, even without Gorbachev's policies. I was pointing out that Gorbachev's policies were more important than Reagan's rhetoric in the matter of the Berlin Wall, and that especially, the Hungarian decision to open their border with Austria (a direct product of the new climate arising from Gorbachev's policies) resulted in the collapse of the DDR.

We've had this discussion before, and i don't intend to go into detail again. I consider you an unreasonable supporter of the political theory, because i find that you ascribe an unwarranted importance to the impact of American policies. Solidarity in Poland did not produce Polish discontent, it was a product of it. Before 1980, the Soviets were putting more troops into eastern Europe, and especially into Poland and the Baltic states, because of that discontent--they could no longer rely militarily upon their largest Warsaw pact partner. Far more important than that, though, was the support which they gave to the Marxist regime in Afghanistan, beginning with support for the party in the 1960s, and leading to support for the government in the 1970s, culminating in the 1979 invasion.

The Soviet Union also underwrote loans to itself and to Warsaw pact nations, despite a declining foreign exchange. All these factors would have been conclusive despite any policy pursued by a third-rate actor in the White House. You just can't accept that the Soviet Union might have been proof against all the militarist, shiny toys you love so much, and could have been the victim of its own wrong turns down the years. Your reference to weapons systems are to paltry expenditures in comparison to the cost of large, new military commitments in eastern Europe, supporting the Cubans in Africa, and keeping an army in a losing war in Afghanistan. The shiny new toys attract conservative pundits like shiny objects attract the eye of a magpie--and are as significant.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 16 Dec, 2006 05:35 pm
Your analysis is weak and ignores very significant facts about both Soviet expenditures and the events of the time. Much has been written on this subject, and your expressed views are ... unique. The criticism of the "shiny new toys" patr (both Soviet and U.S.) ignores very significant elements of the calculus of Soviet strategists, and is, as well, oddly out of synch with the analysis you so prodigiously put forward on other historical conflicts.

Of course the rise of Solidarity was a product, not the cause of Polist discontent. However Solidarity and the general Polish rejection of the authority of the Jaruselski (sp?) regime. as well as the subsequent Hungarian decision to open their borders. all reflected the breakdown in the self-confidence and moral authority of the Soviet system,

It is simply a fact that through the 1970s and early 1980s the Soviets undertook a massive and expensive military buildup - many new aircraft models, classes of ships & submarines, new ballistic missiles, long range detection systems. etc. -- all with the expressed intention of intimidating and demoralizing the West. At one point they had the world's largest Navy (as well as modern army & Air Force). Then, after the losses in Vietnam and the neglect of the Carter years, in just five years we surpassed them. They were spent and simply could not respond to this in their accustomed way. The writings of numerous analyysts and even Soviet marshal Ackromayev confirm this and the unnerving effect it had on Soviet leadership.

It is true that Afghanistan drained them, and that the managed socialist economies of their empire could not match the West, however you are wrong about the effects of Angola, Nicaragua, etc. on the Soviet economy. Their support for "Wars of national liberation", as they called it generally cost them a good deal less than did our response cost us. That in part relates to a key element & benefit of Reagan's strategy - he changed the game from one of costly response to their low cost aggression to a clear statement of principaled opposition and intention to do what it takes to prevail - particularly in areas i which we had natural and previously unexploited advantages.
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Sat 16 Dec, 2006 06:07 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
It is simply a fact that through the 1970s and early 1980s the Soviets undertook a massive and expensive military buildup - many new aircraft models, classes of ships & submarines, new ballistic missiles, long range detection systems. etc. -- all with the expressed intention of intimidating and demoralizing the West. At one point they had the world's largest Navy (as well as modern army & Air Force). Then, after the losses in Vietnam and the neglect of the Carter years, in just five years we surpassed them. They were spent and simply could not respond to this in their accustomed way. The writings of numerous analyysts and even Soviet marshal Ackromayev confirm this and the unnerving effect it had on Soviet leadership.


Please note your own reference to Soviet military build-up in the 1970s and 80s. The point i have been making, and have made to you before you have trotted out your snotty assertion of your superior knowledge of the situation is that the Soviets were responsible for the decisions they made which lead to the collapse of their economy, and of their authority in eastern Europe. You want to claim that there was neglect in the Carter years, which Reagan rectified, at the same time that you acknowledge the Soviet military build-up continued right through the 1970s--when Ford and Carter were in office.

Basically, you just cannot accept that your boy Ronnie Ray-gun won't get credit for what was the product of nearly 50 years of stress on the Soviet system. You also cannot accept any explanation which does not involve American triumphalism. Too bad for you that the historical record does not bear you out in your thesis--and it is also too bad that your thesis is increasingly only forwarded by conservative think tanks in the United States.

Believe what you like, George--i told you i'm not going through this again with you, and that is precisely because of how increasingly condescending and nasty you get when anyone questions your cherished sacred cows. There are, apparently, many aspects of rhetorical forensics which the Jesuits were unable to inculcate in you, and restraint in the presence of penetrating criticism of your thesis is one of them.
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Sat 16 Dec, 2006 06:17 pm
The Stupidity of Ronald Reagan
0 Replies
 
LoneStarMadam
 
  1  
Reply Sat 16 Dec, 2006 06:42 pm
Ronald Reagan is smarter in death than most of the people that hate him are in life.
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Sat 16 Dec, 2006 07:01 pm
The Reagan House of Insanity
0 Replies
 
dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Sat 16 Dec, 2006 07:10 pm
Ronald Reagan was many things, but most undeniably he was a pathological liar. True, he also gave every impression of being an unbelievable moron (which is why Saturday Night Live could once parody his pathetic excuses for the Iran/contra scandal with a skit that depicted Reagan as--get this!--brilliant and competent). His worshipful, if fanciful, biographer Edmund Morris even calls him an "apparent airhead." The President's famous cluelessness was so obvious during his years in office that his defenders would attempt to deploy it as a defense of his actions, as if he were a small child or a beloved but retarded uncle. The President tended to "build these little worlds and live in them," noted a senior adviser. "He makes things up and believes them," explained one of his kids.
0 Replies
 
dlowan
 
  1  
Reply Sat 16 Dec, 2006 07:11 pm
LoneStarMadam wrote:
Ronald Reagan is smarter in death than most of the people that hate him are in life.



Hmmmmm........I'd be more ready to accept an argument that he was smarter in death than all the people that love him are in life...especially with a perfect exemplar posting right in front of me.
0 Replies
 
 

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