What are the Dems' REAL chances this Nov.?

I understand. Dys' approach seemed like it might be viable, as well - the complete non sequitur.
But, Okay......

This is a reminder to the Dems not to count their chickens, but to do something positive during these last two weeks. Not to "measure the drapes" before they "take the house", so to speak.



http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gerald-mcentee/lets-take-the-house-befo_b_32467.html

RCP HOUSE RATINGS- WHO WILL WIN IN NOVEMBER

Dems Need 15 For Control
-------GOP HELD SEATS-------

LEANS DEMOCRAT (9)
TX-22: Open (DeLay)
AZ-8: Open (Kolbe)
FL-16: Open (Foley)
IN-8: Hostettler
PA-10: Sherwood
CO-7: Open (Beauprez)
IA-1: (Open (Nussle)
OH-18: Open (Ney)
PA-7: Weldon
TOSS UPS (15)
NY-24: Open (Boehlert)
OH-15: Pryce
IN-2: Chocola
NY-26: Reynolds
NM-1: Wilson
IN-9: Sodrel
NC-11: Taylor
CT-4: Shays
PA-6: Gerlach
IL-6: Open (Hyde)
MN-6: Open (Kennedy)
FL-13: Open (Harris)
CT-2: Simmons
PA-8: Fitzpatrick
WA-8: Reichert
LEANS REPUBLICAN (21)
FL-22: Shaw
OH-2: Pryce
OH-1: Chabot
CO-4: Musgrave
KY-4: Davis
WI-8: Open (Green)
CT-5: Johnson
VA-2: Drake
NV-2: Open (Gibbons)
NY-20: Sweeney
CA-11: Pombo
NY-29: Kuhl
NJ-7: Ferguson
AZ-1: Renzi
CA-4: Doolittle
NH-2: Bass
PA-4: Hart
NV-3: Porter
AZ-5: Hayworth
MN-1: Gutknecht
KY-3: Northup
-------DEM HELD SEATS-------
LEANS DEMOCRAT (5)
IL-8: Bean
GA-12: Barrow
GA-8: Marshall
VT-AL: Open (Sanders)
IA-3: Boswell

Be Cautious Dems
This is a reminder to the Dems not to count their chickens, but to do something positive during these last two weeks. Not to "measure the drapes" before they "take the house", so to speak.

will the dems get a leg up ?

depends. if you think that things are just great and want more of the same, keep the present majority party.

of you think not, and that 12 years of gop congressional majority, 6 years of which has also had a gop white house, has yielded less than you had hoped for, in light of a viable third party absence, vote for the democrats.

may or may not be better, but it's hard for me to envision it being any more screwed up.

that said, i spent a little over 6 weeks in east tennessee over the last few months in a very conservative small town. i can tell you that although bush is not even close to being as popular as he was, i didn't hear many say that they would vote democratic party this time.

several said they would stay home. but i've heard that before.

guess it depends on how much you enjoy repeatedly sticking your fingers in the fan as somebody else chants "stay the course"...

me, i've had enough.

Election forecasts from Moulitsas, Blades and Lakoff

On a panel that the moderator joked was "fair and balanced in the way that Fox News is," liberal netroots leaders and scholars gathered Thursday night in Berkeley, and made predictions about the November election.

"I've never been right," said Markos Moulitsas Zúniga of Daily Kos, inspiring laughs from the rapt crowd of hundreds of students and political activists at U.C. Berkeley's Wheeler Auditorium. [..] That said, his predictions cut a wide swath; he suggested that, on the low side, Democrats will take seven to 17 seats in the House, but the party could take as many as 30 to 45 seats -- and he expects a 50/50 split in the Senate.

Paul Pierson, professor of political science at U.C. Berkeley, forecast that the Democrats will take 22 to 25 seats in the House, and also sees the Senate split 50/50. But Pierson asked the audience to consider: "Where would we be without Iraq?" He suggested that if the election goes well for the Democrats this November it will be a response to the Bush administration's failures in the war, not a ringing endorsement of any alternative the Democrats are offering. [..]

Yet, if the Democrats do succeed in taking back the House, netroots leaders were realistic about what that will mean. In a word, "gridlock," said Blades. [George] Lakoff expressed skepticism about what the centrist Democratic leadership could achieve, even with control of the House, which he hopes they win. [..]

---
And those are the out-and-out liberals. Compare also the predictions liberals posters here on A2K made, in Put your money where your mouth is and Mid-Term Elections: Predict the Outcome: the most optimistic posters predict that the Dems will eek out the narrowest of majorities in the Senate (51/49), while the others predict a tie at 50/50 or a Republican hold at 49/51.

Now the House, yes - if the Dems dont win the House, we will be sorely disappointed. But the Senate? Nobody is assuming anything, on that count.

I guess the Senate race in Connecticut hasn't worked out so well for Kos and his fellow nutroots, either.

He have lots and lots to say about that?

What do the experts think?

There are a number of websites that continually assess the current state of the Senate and House races. Each day or week, they update their ratings to reflect what the current state of play is.

(Note: this does not equate with predictions for what the outcome of the race will be in a week's time; it is all about how things look right now.)

So how do these sites rate the balance of seats at the current moment? I made one of those colorful little tables (of course).. might be well useful for you all - for one because it isn't as easy as it should be to retrieve these numbers from the differently formatted ratings pages; and secondly, not unimportantly, to temper some expectations on both sides of A2K ;-).

Note: re the Senate, not one of these eight "asssessors" dares to give a majority to either party. The race for the majority is at the moment a true toss-up. That said, 5 out of 8 give the Republicans a slight edge, while only 1 gives the Democrats an edge.

Note: re the House, even here only one of the eight "assessors" gives the Democrats an actual majority; to all the others, the balance of power is still in the toss-up category. But here, all of them give either a slight or a clear edge to the Democrats.




You can also go and look up the sites yourself:

- Congressional Quarterly Election Forecast Map
- Rasmussen Reports - Senate balance of power
- Rothenberg Political Report
- Real Clear Politics
- The Cook Political Report
- The Fix (WaPo)
- New York Times 2006 Election Guide
- Pollster.com

The real enthusiasts can compare this table with the one I made a month ago - and see just how much the Democrats have gained since then.

Does anyone know what odds the bookies are offering?

I am predicting a dem pick up of 7 in the Senate leaving a 52-48 dem majority (I am counting Lieberman as a Democrat). According to nimh this makes me the most optimistic poster.

Noddy, my favorite "odds" site is the real-money political futures market run by the University of Iowa called (IEM).

Click for the current quotes

The way to read this is that RH means the Republicans will keep the house, NS means the non-republicans (i.e. Dems) will control the senate.

The "RHgain" means the Republicans will pick up seats in the house "RShold" means the Republicans will lose seats but not enough to keep control

The numbers represent the price of a contract. If the contract wins it pays a dollar, if not it is worthless after the election. The prices float in free market trading.

The graphs (which graph the price at midnight of each day) are the most interesting.

I suspect the oddsmakers would be similar.

Anyone hear the guy running against Ted Kennedy? I think his name is Ted Chase. My Dad would say he doesn't have both oars in the water.

Pretty much, yep.

Mining the two "predict the outcome" threads, I get this:

Ebrown, first take: 51 Dem., 49 Rep.; (and now as) second take: 52 Dem., 48 Rep.

Cyclo: 50 Rep., 50 Dem.

Realjohnboy, first take: 51 Rep., 49 Dem.; second take: 51 Dem., 49 Rep.

Nimh: 51 Rep., 49 Dem.

Thomas: Rep's keep the Senate

Joe from Chicago: 51 Rep., 47 Dem., 2 Ind. (effectively 51 Rep., 49 Dem.)

talk7200: 51 Dem. - 48 Rep. - 1 Ind. (effectively 52 Dem., 48 Rep.)

I must have been in a pessimistic mood for my first take. It would be very nice if Liberman were not the king maker (it would be even nicer if he weren't a Senator).

Well not one of the A2K conservatives even came up with any numbers, so that must be a good sign... or perhaps its just their natural aversion to pesky detail... you know, Rumsfeld-style...

It's beginning to look like it could be 51-49. The latest VA senate poll from Rasmussen, 10/29 gives Webb a 5 point lead.

Tenn and MO are still too close to call so it could swing either direction.

I took advantage of the 'early voting' deal here yesterday. some of the folks in line and a couple of the election officials were saying this was the biggest turnout for early voting they had ever seen. Don't know what that means in the scheme of things.

I'm nervous about the close races. If they're not close, its harder to corrupt the results.

Ahh yes, pulling political guesses out of one's ass on an internet political forum constitutes the sort of meaningful detail that conservatives so obviously avoid.

Yeah, we're all quite sure that if the outlook on the probable outcome looked more favorable for the right, you'd all be just as silent.

Heh, indeed.

I mean, it wasnt like conservatives here refrained from "pulling political guesses out of their ass" on this particular internet political forum two years ago, with the Presidential elections...