A first(?) thread on 2008: McCain,Giuliani & the Republicans

So do those who still support Bush and the Iraq War conservatives?

Or are conservatives at a loss to know what conservativism is?

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With all this gloom, where is the politician with the skill to take advantage by offering some attractive alternative? Ronald Reagan with a happy vision of a shining city on a hill (with low taxes) or Bill Clinton saying the economy can be better. Who can capture the public's confidence that they can move the country in a new and better direction?

At the moment, the front-runners seem to be failing to seize that opportunity. Instead, the momentum in both parties has stalled for front-runners and turned to non-candidates.

The Republicans provide the strongest example of a party unhappy with its choices. Both Giuliani and McCain have suffered significant losses over the past 3 months. Now the excitement is behind the not-yet candidate Fred Thompson, who has gained sharply in the last month to near parity with McCain.

The evidence is pretty good that Thompson's surge is not a fluke of a single poll or two, but is widespread across polls (though we could use some more to be sure!). This kind of surge for a new candidate is typical of what we see when there remain a significant number of partisans not happy with their choices and looking for any more attractive alternative to the front-runners. We saw this most famously in 1984 when Democrats unhappy with Mondale jumped on the Hart bandwagon once they saw the possibility of a credible alternative. At the moment, I think that is Thompson's greatest strength-- the hope of a better alternative. As Hart shows, it is not enough ultimately to be "not-Mondale", but at least for a while Fred Thompson may benefit significantly from being "the" alternative. Once in the race, can he take advantage of a discontented public? Does he have a story to tell about how to make America better?

I have to add that Mitt Romney is looking like the steady tortoise to the other hares. His trend has remained steadily up despite a number of mistakes earlier. He hasn't enjoyed even a moment of Thompson's "surge", but he's also escaped downturns. His current Iowa and New Hampshire polling also looks good. He has a very far ways to go to emerge in first place, but this far out you might like that long term positive trend.

I've also noticed that polls on Bush's performance almost always shows FOX news giving Bush a higher rating than most other posters. That kind of bias is eliminated from the graph you presented to some degree, and that's good.

As you can see, Giuliani, who surged in the winter months, has been steadily dropping since - and below him, McCain has been dropping at roughly the same rate.

Romney has been creeping up to ten percent, passing Gingrich, who seems to have lost any momentum he may have had. But the big story is Fred Thompson, who's surged up to where he's almost past McCain.

Note that the graph was last updated three days ago.

Upon considering your graph and after watching the debates, nimh, I think McCain is a dead duck. He might as well, quit now. He has killed any chance he had with his latest immigration stance. Giuliani remains fairly strong, but in my judgement has alot of downside potential, with not as much upside potential. Gingrich has a good solid base of support, but not much upside potential to go anywhere, if he chose to enter the race. That leaves Thompson and Romney. Thompson has a strong blast out of the starting gate, and may have alot of upside potential, but also might flame out pretty quickly, depending on what people think once he actually becomes a visible target and a more known quantity. Romney has the advantage of having been out there, visible and actively running, so his downside potential is minimal, but his upside potential remains strong. Just my opinion, but I wonder if it might be a race between Romney, Thompson, and Giuliani, and as time goes on, Romney or Thompson may emerge as the man to beat. None of the other darkhorses in the race seem to be gaining enough support or have enough upside potential to go anywhere anytime soon.

cicerone imposter wrote:

I've also noticed that polls on Bush's performance almost always shows FOX news giving Bush a higher rating than most other posters. That kind of bias is eliminated from the graph you presented to some degree, and that's good.

It is indeed true that Fox's polls consistently have the job approval ratings for Bush a few points higher than other polls do, on average.

However, easy though the association with Fox News' strident politics is made, this apparently is not a result of political bias.

As Thomas found out once (or twice, actually), back in the nineties, Fox News also always had President Clinton's approval rating a few points higher than the other polls did, on average.

So its probably because of some methodological difference.

okie wrote:

Upon considering your graph and after watching the debates, nimh, I think McCain is a dead duck. He might as well, quit now. He has killed any chance he had with his latest immigration stance. Giuliani remains fairly strong, but in my judgement has alot of downside potential, with not as much upside potential. Gingrich has a good solid base of support, but not much upside potential to go anywhere, if he chose to enter the race. That leaves Thompson and Romney. Thompson has a strong blast out of the starting gate, and may have alot of upside potential, but also might flame out pretty quickly, depending on what people think once he actually becomes a visible target and a more known quantity. Romney has the advantage of having been out there, visible and actively running, so his downside potential is minimal, but his upside potential remains strong. Just my opinion, but I wonder if it might be a race between Romney, Thompson, and Giuliani, and as time goes on, Romney or Thompson may emerge as the man to beat. None of the other darkhorses in the race seem to be gaining enough support or have enough upside potential to go anywhere anytime soon.

I actually agree with almost all of that! I wouldnt sign off McCain altogether yet, though its clear that he's got very tough prospects. But otherwise, yes, I agree with all of this.

That must be the first time you and I agree on anything, let alone on a whole post

I thought I saw a poll the other day where it shows MCain isn't even in the top three GOP candidates?