nimh wrote:What are the polls in Iowa saying? (I'm still going through some backlog.) Like with those in New Hampshire, there's a clear divergence from the picture of the national polls. [..]
Returning to this poll for one moment..
It also asked likely caucus goers what issues they rated extremely important.
The difference in the answers of Democrats and Republicans are striking, and revealing.
Here's the Democrats:
Likely Iowan Democratic caucusgoers are concerned first and foremost by the Iraq war (46%). This is clearly the prime issue.
A host of other issues follow at a distance, without a clear #2 among them: relations with other countries, health care and health insurance, the economy and jobs, national security, the national debt, terrorism, education and social security. 'Soft' and 'hard' issues, domestic and foreign issues, all ranked roughly equally important, behind Iraq.
What do active Iowa Democrats not worry about much? The culture war stuff. Gay marriage, abortion, faith and values, judicial nominations, even stem cell research. The religious right's agenda, collectively declared, not so much controversial, as rather irrelevant. They also dont worry much about global competitiveness, but neither do the Republicans.
Here is the graph for the Republicans:
What do the Republicans consider important? First thing that strikes the eye is that they are bothered less. The Democrats on average ranked five subjects as extremely important. The Republicans mentioned only four.
There's not one issue that is prioritised as much as the Iraq war is among Democrats either. But still two issues are clearly in the lead - and neither of them is Iraq. They are terrorism (40%) and national security (38%). Which should be good news for Giuliani.
Iraq, they'd rather forget (which could be bad news for McCain). It only lands in the second tier of issues - just one point ahead of immigration, and actually just
below "faith and values". Yes, likely Iowan Republican caucusgoers are more concerned about "faith and values" than about the war in Iraq.
But what do they really
not care much about? Like the Dems, they're not concerned about global competitiveness. Also like the Dems, they're not worried about stem cell research, suggesting that this is one issue that wont catch fire in this state (which is a pity for the Democrats, who used it to good avail in '06).
But more strikingly, these Republicans seem not in the least concerned with global warming (5%); and none of the major social domestic issues feature much for them. Education? Health care and health insurance? Social Security? The Iowan Republicans likely to caucus aren't preoccupied, and rank these issues lower than almost all of the religious-conservative agenda items. Gay marriage, abortion and judicial nominations are more important than education or health care (and this predominance of social conservative priorities + immigration throughout the second tier in turn should be bad news for Giuliani, and good news for candidates like Huckabee, Brownback or Tancredo).