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A first(?) thread on 2008: McCain,Giuliani & the Republicans

 
 
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Thu 24 May, 2007 04:20 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Wrong. If I am 90% sure that a gun is fake, that's plenty of evidence that it is fake.
Stop behaving like a retard. If hindsight improved your surety to 91%, you have benefited from hindsight. Listing related opinions till you're blue in the face won't change this simple, undeniable FACT. You wrote absolutely nothing changes this simple truth; nor can you.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 24 May, 2007 04:27 pm
If a person believes a gun is a fake by 90%, and later proves it's plastic and a fake, it only proves he was right in the first place. No amount of josling of words will change that fact. He made his decision on his confidence level of 90%; that to most says he believes it's true.

The other 10% is useful only to people like you who wish to continue the argument.
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OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Thu 24 May, 2007 04:37 pm
realjohnboy wrote:
With all due respect to Bill and CI and Cyclop, this thread is drifting. That is fine but it does mean that the original title of it is for naught. McCain etc.
With all due respect; I pointed that out almost immediately, even as they drove the thread off topic, repeatedly blaming me for doing nothing more than pointing out the obvious.
cicerone imposter wrote:
If a person believes a gun is a fake by 90%, and later proves it's plastic and a fake, it only proves he was right in the first place. No amount of josling of words will change that fact. He made his decision on his confidence level of 90%; that to most says he believes it's true.

The other 10% is useful only to people like you who wish to continue the argument.
Rolling Eyes I iterated my desire not to even begin the argument pages ago, and for a while even ignored the off-topic chatter until I got tired of seeing my name quoted as responsible for the off-topic discussion. 90% is an arbitrary figure (rather unrealistic one at that), but none of that changes the fact that the statement I made, that was blamed as the catalyst, was in no way out of line... and every subsequent attempt to prove otherwise has been in vain. Every honest person should have no trouble admitting their degree of surety has indeed benefited from hindsight. Hence, all of this whining is not only unnecessary, but certainly no fault of my own.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 24 May, 2007 04:52 pm
OBill, When anyone says "I have a 90 percent confidence level in XX," it only tells us there is very little doubt about their choice. Even statistics on most studies have a bell curve that is usually not 100 percent accurate. You're minching words and getting angry about nothing.
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OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Thu 24 May, 2007 04:58 pm
Rolling Eyes 2 more pages of off topic nonsense. None of which disproved anything I said to any degree.
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Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Thu 24 May, 2007 09:00 pm
OCCOM BILL wrote:
Rolling Eyes 2 more pages of off topic nonsense. None of which disproved anything I said to any degree.


One more leftist jackass, if you are keeping score.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 24 May, 2007 09:19 pm
I don't believe that there really is any kind of GW Bush establishment within the Republican party. To some extent his administration was hijacked, or merely taken over by default, by Cheney and the so called neocons who mobilized and became the dominant voice in the new administration sometime soon after 9/11. It is hard to recall now the early Bush statements about the need for American humility in world affairs, but they were made and they were a consistent feature of his campaign rhetoric and early postures while in office.

In any event the political circumstances don't suggest that Bush will have any significant influence on the party as the election approaches. Instead that role will be taken up by the various contenders, of whom McCain and Guiliani are the most prominent - as has already been noted. I believe that Fred Thompson could easily become a serious contender who might have strong appeal for those who, for various reasons, oppose the main contenders, both of whom have the ability to evoke strong opposition as well as appeal.

I also believe that the principal Democrat contenders - Clinton and Obama - have the potential to be self-limiting with the general electorate - despite their appeal within the party. We could well see a Republican victory in the next presidential race. (If not I may move to France.)
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 24 May, 2007 10:29 pm
georgeob, Pretty well thought out analysis of the Bush cabal; that he let others use him as a puppet is no excuse for Bush or the party. That he also helped destroy Tony Blair's legacy is about as historic as it can get in modern times.

According a an article I read recently, some pundits are saying Bush lost 25 percent of the republican support that will follow through the 2008 elections. That's pretty damming for any president - past or present. It's Bush's legacy that he let others destroy; can't blame it on anybody but himself. That you conclude Bush won't have any influence in the next election is a given; he's destroyed it. No, there is no such thing as a GW Bush establishment. If there is one, it's falling apart by the seams.

It's still too early to tell how the contenders for the next election will fare, but I'd dare say Obama looks pretty good going forward. McCain is a hothead who continues to lose his support base, and Giuliani is a one issue pupil known only for his exposure from 9-11. Between Clinton and Giuliani, I'm not sure who has the better persona which will continue to lose luster for the next 18 months.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Fri 25 May, 2007 07:43 am
I don't think Bush was a puppet, and I don't think that Tony Blair's "legacy" is either particularly important or even destroyed. Moreover Bush had very little to do with it compared to the actions of Tony himself. Both were to a degree propelled by a reaction to the harmful effects of a delayed and timid European response to the aggressive actions of the Serbian government under Milosevich. History offers many often contradictory lessons, and it is often difficult to contemporaneously make a wise determination of just which lessons best apply to an unfolding and not perfectly understood new situation. Everything, however, becomes clear in retrospect.

I am apparently more confident than you about the internal political limitations of the Democrat candidates themselves. I agree that current polls suggest a large loss of popular support for Republicans. However I don't yet know how this will play out among voters when they are given a concrete choice in 2008.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Fri 25 May, 2007 08:33 am
georgeob1 wrote:
I don't think Bush was a puppet, and I don't think that Tony Blair's "legacy" is either particularly important or even destroyed. Moreover Bush had very little to do with it compared to the actions of Tony himself. Both were to a degree propelled by a reaction to the harmful effects of a delayed and timid European response to the aggressive actions of the Serbian government under Milosevich. History offers many often contradictory lessons, and it is often difficult to contemporaneously make a wise determination of just which lessons best apply to an unfolding and not perfectly understood new situation. Everything, however, becomes clear in retrospect.

I am apparently more confident than you about the internal political limitations of the Democrat candidates themselves. I agree that current polls suggest a large loss of popular support for Republicans. However I don't yet know how this will play out among voters when they are given a concrete choice in 2008.


Very true. Given a choice between an unpalatable Democrat and an unpalatable Republican, who do you vote for? The one representing the least unpalatable ideology? I think that's the way it often goes.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Fri 25 May, 2007 10:09 am
Fox, It's very evident you know nothing about "conservatism." CLUE: It ain't conservatism under Bush.
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HokieBird
 
  1  
Reply Fri 25 May, 2007 10:13 am
Foxfyre wrote:
georgeob1 wrote:
I don't think Bush was a puppet, and I don't think that Tony Blair's "legacy" is either particularly important or even destroyed. Moreover Bush had very little to do with it compared to the actions of Tony himself. Both were to a degree propelled by a reaction to the harmful effects of a delayed and timid European response to the aggressive actions of the Serbian government under Milosevich. History offers many often contradictory lessons, and it is often difficult to contemporaneously make a wise determination of just which lessons best apply to an unfolding and not perfectly understood new situation. Everything, however, becomes clear in retrospect.

I am apparently more confident than you about the internal political limitations of the Democrat candidates themselves. I agree that current polls suggest a large loss of popular support for Republicans. However I don't yet know how this will play out among voters when they are given a concrete choice in 2008.


Very true. Given a choice between an unpalatable Democrat and an unpalatable Republican, who do you vote for? The one representing the least unpalatable ideology? I think that's the way it often goes.


Even the Democrats would vote for a Republican Smile

(Only two out of this small focus group chose a Democrat and when asked who they trusted, most of the Dems picked a Republican). No one picked Hilary Smile

Quote:
But when the area voters were asked who would be the safest choice to lead the country in these uncertain times, nearly all, including Democrats and independents, picked Republicans: former Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, Sen. John McCain or former Gov. Mitt Romney

Link
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OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Fri 25 May, 2007 11:23 am
HokieBird wrote:
(Only two out of this small focus group chose a Democrat and when asked who they trusted, most of the Dems picked a Republican). No one picked Hilary Smile
I think I could trust Giuliani, Obama and probably McCain... but I'd vote for a Martian before Hillary.
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HokieBird
 
  1  
Reply Fri 25 May, 2007 11:36 am
OCCOM BILL wrote:
HokieBird wrote:
(Only two out of this small focus group chose a Democrat and when asked who they trusted, most of the Dems picked a Republican). No one picked Hilary Smile
I think I could trust Giuliani, Obama and probably McCain... but I'd vote for a Martian before Hillary.


Apparently, you're not alone. I may have to consider campaigning for her in the Dem primaries.
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OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Fri 25 May, 2007 11:37 am
Laughing Interesting strategy, that.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Fri 25 May, 2007 12:12 pm
Hillary isn't even on my list of "maybes."
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Fri 25 May, 2007 01:34 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
Fox, It's very evident you know nothing about "conservatism." CLUE: It ain't conservatism under Bush.


She might know more about it than you do.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Fri 25 May, 2007 01:40 pm
georgeob: She might know more about it than you do.


If she does, she sure doesn't show it. I also find it interesting that you make generalized statements about a a2k participant without showing us why.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Fri 25 May, 2007 02:01 pm
Well, she appears to be a conservative herself and it is only reasonable to expect that she might know more about it than you do. I don't think that you have any reason to bed offended, or even annoyed, by this rather obvious speculation.
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Fri 25 May, 2007 02:04 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
Well, she appears to be a conservative herself and it is only reasonable to expect that she might know more about it than you do. I don't think that you have any reason to bed offended, or even annoyed, by this rather obvious speculation.


'Appears' being the operative word here.

I consider myself a Liberal, but does that mean I know more about being a liberal than others who have more experience, and more importantly, better logical abilities and insights? Nope.

The identity and history of the poster in question plays a huge part in my suspicion that CI is correct.

Cycloptichorn
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