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A first(?) thread on 2008: McCain,Giuliani & the Republicans

 
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 10 Dec, 2007 05:49 pm
nimh
I'd read the piece but not the contributors' posts. The one you picked really is a dilly. thank you
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 10 Dec, 2007 06:03 pm
Thanks Nimh!

Quote:

You gotta wonder what the campaign had looked like if they had given Edwards anything like the same kind of boost.


There's also this question: what if they simply couldn't find as much bad stuff to say about Obama as they could others?

His 'experience' issue works out in his favor this way. Squeaky-clean. Compared to the rest of the field he's practically a saint.

Cycloptichorn
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 10 Dec, 2007 06:15 pm
Yeah, I see it too! He ain't tainted as much by "politics."
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 10 Dec, 2007 06:47 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
There's also this question: what if they simply couldn't find as much bad stuff to say about Obama as they could others?

His 'experience' issue works out in his favor this way. Squeaky-clean. Compared to the rest of the field he's practically a saint.

Hm. If you use the logic that he just has too short a track record for there to simply be much bad stuff to say about him, then according to the same logic there shouldnt have been much good stuff to say about him, either. And yet they wrote plenty of it, some of it substantive, much of it not.

When it came to substance, they had choices that were open to make -- focus on Obama's fabled successes in forging some bipartisan support, at least in Illinois? Or on the fact that, based on his voting record, he is arguably the single most liberal Senator in the whole Senate? You know the choice they made; it was Edwards they portrayed as the unfeasible lefty.

As for puff pieces, they are a genre, all candidates have gotten 'em -- its just that Obama got a whole lot more than the rest. Mind you, the press, bless 'em, they need a hero too -- what else to alleviate the drudgery of the daily campaign trail -- so they build someone up. Preferably someone with glamour value and the all-essential bipartisan narrative, because there's nothing the media likes as much as a bipartisan Democrat. They did it with Bradley, they did it with Tsongas; on the Republican side they did it with McCain in '00, and - up until he actually entered the race at least - with Thompson earlier this year. And there's rarely any proportional relation to the support that the candidate in question actually has on the ground at the time.

All too awkward candidates, meanwhile, the dreaded populists above all - Jerry Brown, Howard Dean in '04, Edwards this time - are either ignored or made to look ridiculous or malicious; they dont fit the bill, they are not like the journalistic and political classes. There's nothing the pundits like as much - in a Democrat, at least, the exotism of attractively "rugged" candidates is exclusively reserved for Republicans - as someone they recognize themselves in. Someone sophisticated, and ever reasonable and pragmatic, someone who doesnt, well, scare them, or challenge them too much, or take too openly a partisan stand. Somebody who naturally appeals to their social/cultural profile, the higher educated, higher income, culturally liberal, and economically enlightened, but not all too assertive.

They would just love a Bloomberg candidacy... never mind that the culturally liberal/economically moderate political corner is already overcrowded, and that the real lack is of an economically populist, culturally conservative independent. They would murder one of those though.
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 10 Dec, 2007 07:42 pm
Drifting back to the polls for a minute, specifically the 2nd choice issue discussed here (and the 12/7 Newsweek poll cited by Nimh).
I wonder if Newsweek factored out (excluded) 2nd choices for folks favoring Huckabee and Romney, who each seem to score more than 15% at this point. Those likely caucus attendees would likely stay with one of the first or second place finishers and not move.

I don't know how the sub-15% would split. I am thinking McCain.

Watch out for Paul. He has a lot of underground support from young Republicans. They want to be Republicans but are unhappy with the direction the party has taken. He has a good organization amongst colleges. He will not get the nomination, of course, but he could tend to alter things.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 10 Dec, 2007 08:00 pm
realjohnboy wrote:
I wonder if Newsweek factored out (excluded) 2nd choices for folks favoring Huckabee and Romney, who each seem to score more than 15% at this point.

No, their numbers include the second choices of everyone who had one.

realjohnboy wrote:
Those likely caucus attendees would likely stay with one of the first or second place finishers and not move.

That's what I was saying earlier, but I've come back on that a bit after I read that even Kerry, the winner of the '04 caucuses, didnt get 15% in something like 77 localities..
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 10 Dec, 2007 08:01 pm
Quote:

Hm. If you use the logic that he just has too short a track record for there to simply be much bad stuff to say about him, then according to the same logic there shouldnt have been much good stuff to say about him, either. And yet they wrote plenty of it, some of it substantive, much of it not.


But, that's not the logic that I applied.

I posit the possibility that he has many more good things to say about him, then negative things, not because he has to short a track record, but because - and I know this is something of a long shot, in politics - he's actually a good person?

I know, I know. But it is possible.

The other possibility is much darker, literally. It's not a surprise to anyone that Obama's status as a non-white is a significant negative in the minds of some Americans. But reporting on that isn't as easy as you might think.... how many racial issues can you highlight, week after week, over a basically two-year long campaign, before people start accusing you of pushing that story, or that angle, or of your own racism?

Obama's biggest negative (in terms of electability in America) can't be openly discussed in the media.

Cycloptichorn
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 10 Dec, 2007 08:36 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
I posit the possibility that he has many more good things to say about him, then negative things, not because he has to short a track record, but because - and I know this is something of a long shot, in politics - he's actually a good person?

Oh, I'm sure he is. But then I think Edwards and Dodd and Kucinich and Richardson or even Hillary are good persons too. But being a good person in itself has never guaranteed the kind of massive slant towards favourable media coverage Obama got; not for unexperienced politicians or for experienced politicians.

Candidates get slammed over complete irrelevancies all the time, manufactured hypes like Edwards' haircut; such nonsense could have been produced on Obama too. I can just see the headline on the screen and the breathless pundit delivery: "Obama's past coke use - fifteen years after "I did not inhale," is America ready to elect someone who used cocaine?" Doubtlessly that is still to come in the general election campaigns if it's Obama who makes it into them. But in the primaries, the media pursued such non-stories about other candidates, but not about Obama.

Same with substantive issues. Sure, Obama has not had the chance to build up a long track record of tricky votes and the like. But when it comes to issues and political positioning, there could easily have been at least half as many negative talking points as positive ones - like the example I gave, being the #1 most liberal Senator for example. Yet it didn't happen.

Now I certainly would not have wanted Obama to be chased over nonsense stuff - the less nonsense the better - although there is something to be said for having it all be done with now rather than it slipping by now and then coming out in force after all when the general election campaign is on. But I think the argument that Obama received so much more favourable coverage than Hillary or Edwards or any single one of the Republicans because he is just so much more singularly kind, good, unblemished etc is a bust. I mean, look at the proportions here - they monitored a multitude of media for half a year, and the proportion for Obama was almost 3 positive stories for every 1 negative story, on average. When all but one of the other main candidates received more negative than positive coverage.

It's a bit like the argument you hear about millionaires or the top managers etc - of course they should earn more than your regular guy, because they work harder, have had to go to school longer and are more talented. Sure, but paid not just 10 times as much, not just 100 times as much, but 500 times as much? There's a point with these things where the proportions bear out that it's not any kind of meritocratic award anymore.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Tue 11 Dec, 2007 01:54 pm
Quote:
Weekly Standard parody of Mitt's speech and draft corrections...
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Utilities/get_galleryfile.asp?idOLG={2DED9259-31F2-4CB9-9DA1-
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/014/465xgnpz.asp
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 12 Dec, 2007 02:06 am
http://i3.tinypic.com/6q1de0j.jpg

http://i10.tinypic.com/73e2yrl.jpg

Washington Post, 12.12.07, frontpage and page A6

Online: In Poll, Huckabee Closes on Giuliani
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Wed 12 Dec, 2007 08:57 am
Quote:
Poll Finds G.O.P. Field Isn't Touching Voters

By ADAM NAGOURNEY and MEGAN THEE
Published: December 11, 2007
Three weeks before the Iowa caucuses, Republican voters across the country appear uninspired by their field of presidential candidates, with a vast majority saying they have not made a final decision about whom to support, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

Not one of the Republican candidates is viewed favorably by even half the Republican electorate, the poll found. And in a sign of the fluidity of the race, former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, who barely registered in early polls several months ago, is now locked in a tight contest nationally with Rudolph W. Giuliani and Mitt Romney.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/11/us/politics/11poll.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Wed 12 Dec, 2007 09:44 am
Now this is interesting! We want to read this as we do any Drudge piece...as a public relations/propaganda package designed to further a particular narrative.

This isn't really a disinterested observation. Nor is it primarily an attempt to portray the Dems as covert, scheming, etc. It is an attack on Huckabee targetting the mainly rightwing who attend to Drudge.

Quote:
DEMS HOLD FIRE ON HUCKABEE; SEE 'EASY KILL' IN GENERAL ELECTION
Tue Dec 11 2007 10:27:53 ET

**Exclusive**

Democrat party officials are avoiding any and all criticism of Republican presidential contender Mike Huckabee, insiders reveal.

The Democratic National Committee has told staffers to hold all fire, until he secures the party's nomination.

The directive has come down from the highest levels within the party, according to a top source.

Within the DNC, Huckabee is known as the "glass jaw -- and they're just waiting to break it."

In the last three weeks since Huckabee's surge kicked in, the DNC hasn't released a single press release criticizing his rising candidacy.

The last DNC press release critical of Huckabee appeared back on March 2nd.

[DNC Press Release Attack Summary:

Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) - 37% (99 press releases)
Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY) - 28% (74)
Senator John McCain (R-AZ) - 24% (64)
Senator Fred Thompson (R-TN) - 8% (20)
Governor Mike Huckabee - 2% (4)]

In fact, as the story broke over the weekend that Huckabee said he wanted to isolate AIDS patients back in 1992, the DNC ignored the opportunity to slam the candidate from the left.

"He'll easily be their McGovern, an easy kill," mocked one senior Democrat operative Tuesday morning from Washington.

"His letting out murderers because they shout 'Jesus', his wanting to put 300,000 AIDS patients and Magic Johnson into isolation, ain't even scratching the surface of what we've got on him."

The discipline the Democrats have shown in not engaging Huckabee has earned the praise of one former Republican Party official:

"The Democrats are doing a much better job restraining themselves than the GOP did in 2003 when Howard Dean looked like he was on the brink of winning the nomination."

A close friend to Huckabee explains: "Look, Mike is Hillary Clinton's worst nightmare. They should be squirming."

Developing...
http://www.drudgereport.com/flashhu.htm
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 12 Dec, 2007 10:09 am
National Review noticed it too.

Quote:

Another thing political types are talking about is the stream of anti-Huckabee attacks on the Drudge Report. Everyone believes the source of the attacks is the Romney campaign - Jonathan Martin of the Politico wrote yesterday that the headline "Dems Hold Fire On Huckabee; See 'Easy Kill' In General Election," which was bannered across the top of the Drudge Report yesterday, "smacks of Mitt desperation to the political class who know where Drudge is getting his dirt, but the other 99 percent of Americans who click on the site are only reading negative information about Huck. And it's now happening on a near-daily basis." Last night a Huckabee aide told me, of Romney, "He's attacking with TV ads, radio, print, web - if he finds a way to attack by carrier pigeon, he'll do that, too."


Cycloptichorn
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Brand X
 
  1  
Reply Wed 12 Dec, 2007 05:28 pm
BTW, National Review has endorsed Romney.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Wed 12 Dec, 2007 05:32 pm
Brand X wrote:
BTW, National Review has endorsed Romney.


Yes, I saw that. I'm supposing that Buckley's influence, institutionally and philosphically, is to be seen here.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Dec, 2007 07:04 am
Very funny gag from Gail Collins...
Quote:
Next to Keyes, he [Huckabee] looks like a logical positivist.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/13/opinion/13collins.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Dec, 2007 12:32 pm
This is pretty amazing!

http://www.newyorker.com/humor/2007/12/17/071217sh_shouts_slansky

Several of them got gasps and "no way!!"s from me, but I'll semi-randomly cite 12 as an especially scary one.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Dec, 2007 02:12 pm
Authoritarian. And a bit of a crook.

Good find.
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Dec, 2007 02:48 pm
My own favorite Giuliolini story is the one when the New York Daily News ran an advertisement praising itself as "possibly the only good thing in New York Rudy hasn't taken credit for." Giulliani ordered the advertizement taken off the city's busses. When the Daily News sued him and prevailed in court, he appealed the decision all the way up to the Supreme Court, which rejected the case.

This New York Times article gives a pretty good overview.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Dec, 2007 03:39 pm
That's in the New Yorker thing!

I remember reading about that at the time.

Oy.
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