A first(?) thread on 2008: McCain,Giuliani & the Republicans

Further on the splitting of the evangelicals

Quote:

Randall Terry's Operation Robertson
Randall Terry, founder of Operation Rescue and veteran of extremist anti-abortion protests and federal prison, had a new target this week - his old friend Pat Robertson. While many Religious Right figures slammed Robertson for his endorsement of Rudy Giuliani, Terry's was in its own rhetorical league, blasting Robertson for having been "seduced" by Giuliani's "hypocritical and seductive evil."

http://www.rightwingwatch.org/2007/11/randall_terrys.html

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Randall Terry's such a prissy little jerk. I have to say I'm enjoying watching him squirm. Too bad some of our old friends like, what's her name, the church lady in New Mexico......too bad she's not here to enjoy it along with us.

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Quote:

Poll: In New Hampshire, Romney Rising While Rudy Drops Fast
By Greg Sargent - November 19, 2007, 4:33PM
A CNN poll out of New Hampshire released today finds Mitt Romney increasing his lead and Rudy dropping fast. It finds Romney at 33%, John McCain at 18%, and Rudy in third at 16%.

That's a big swing in Romney's favor, and a dramatic slide in Rudy's fortunes. A CNN poll of the state in September found Romney and Rudy deadlocked at 25%-24%. Today's poll finds that Romney jumped eight points, while Rudy dropped the same amount.

Though the Rudy campaign is claiming that they don't need to win the early primary states, Rudy's precipitous drop in the state might explain why his campaign decided to hit the 9/11 panic button in recent days, sending out a mailing in the state trumpeting his 9/11 heroism. It also helps explain why Rudy just hit the airwaves in New Hampshire, too.

In another interesting finding in today's CNN poll, Fred Thompson has skidded badly, and is now in sixth place with four, behind libertarian Congressman Ron Paul, who has eight percent.

http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2007/11/poll_in_new_hampshire_romney_rising_while_rudy_drops_fast.php

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Try to shelf personal proclivities to bash Rudy....in NH...why is Romney doing so well.... Does anyone know anything about religious (or other) demographics that could explain the current situation between Rudy and Romney?

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blatham wrote:

Further on the splitting of the evangelicals
Quote:
Randall Terry's Operation Robertson
Randall Terry, founder of Operation Rescue and veteran of extremist anti-abortion protests and federal prison, had a new target this week - his old friend Pat Robertson. While many Religious Right figures slammed Robertson for his endorsement of Rudy Giuliani, Terry's was in its own rhetorical league, blasting Robertson for having been "seduced" by Giuliani's "hypocritical and seductive evil."
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/2007/11/randall_terrys.html

Do you mean to suggest they are not the monolitiic movement of darkness that you once thought?

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oh!! BAY---OOOOOW!!!!

<laughing uncontrollably while Blatham scrambles for a response>

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Laughline of the week: here's a Giuliani aide complaining about the firefighters of 9/11 and their families holding a town hall meeting in New Hampshire.

Quote:

"It's unconscionable that a front group for the highly partisan IAFF is now turning the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11 into a political football."

Yes, that's the camp of Rudy "noun-verb-9/11" Giuliani accusing others of "turning the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11 into a political football".

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Lash wrote:

oh!! BAY---OOOOOW!!!!

<laughing>

This is the sort of response with Tico and McG claims only happens on the side of the Democrats.

Nice to see ya again btw

Cycloptichorn

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georgeob1 wrote:

blatham wrote:
Further on the splitting of the evangelicals
Quote:
Randall Terry's Operation Robertson
Randall Terry, founder of Operation Rescue and veteran of extremist anti-abortion protests and federal prison, had a new target this week - his old friend Pat Robertson. While many Religious Right figures slammed Robertson for his endorsement of Rudy Giuliani, Terry's was in its own rhetorical league, blasting Robertson for having been "seduced" by Giuliani's "hypocritical and seductive evil."
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/2007/11/randall_terrys.html

Do you mean to suggest they are not the monolitiic movement of darkness that you once thought?

Do you still sodomize cattle?

One week ago, george, you admitted that you did not know who James Dobson is. I'm certain that you also don't have any idea who Paul Vigurie is. Nor Paul Weyrich. William Donovan? Maybe, as he's a Catholic movement activist. You probably know a bit about Ralph Reed but certainly not his life prior to being taken on by Robertson nor what he's been up to over the last four years. Tim LaHaye? I have some good books on this portion of the conservative movement and would be happy to make recommendations. If you showed the slightest desire to educate yourself, that is. You don't want to be implying that you actually know more about this subject than I, george. You'd look rather the fool, you know.

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Here's nimh with another polling intermezzo. Give a man his hobby.

It's no news that I'm a big fan of pollster.com, and specifically, its lovely and insightful graphs, in which all national and state polls are tracked, trendlines and all.

For example, these ones on the Democratic race in Iowa, the Republican race in Iowa, the Democratic race in New Hampshire, and the the Republican race in New Hampshire.

But sometimes I'm a bit frustrated by them. The pollster.com trendlines are extremely cautious. With good reason, but still. Even when new results come in that diverge from recent ones, mostly the trend line is just made a little more or less steep; actual "bends" or turns in the trend are made only once a three months or so at most.

Again, all for very sound methodological reasons. But I'm following these races and I see what could just be new trends emerging or turning, and they wont show up in the pollster.com trendlines because they are too tentative.

And then on the other hand, you have the day-to-day news reports that uncritically zoom in on any one single opinion poll result, and act like it proves some new breakthrough. "Romney within 4 points of Giuliani", you might have read last week on the basis of a national ARG poll. "Romney down to 8%", you might now read, based on the latest national Fox News poll. Or you might have read, "McCain in second place in New Hampshire, passes Rudy!, based on the latest CNN/WMUR/UNH poll; or, "Huckabee in statistical tie with Romney for first place in Iowa", based on the latest ARG poll - never mind that other polls have the difference at around 10%.

So, I want something of a middle way. So instead - new nimh graphics! Smile

They feature poll averages by periods of roughly a month or two; averages that each encompass five to eight individual polls that appeared in that time. Data are all from pollster.com.

http://img519.imageshack.us/img519/6209/ianhrepsfq0.png

By almodozo

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Lola wrote:

I agree with one of the talking heads I heard this week. Weyrich's endorsement of Romney, Brownback's endorsement of McCain and Robertson's endorsement of Guilliani all further confirm the apparent splintering of the religious right movement.

In the meantime there is Terry Fox, prominent, long time hellfire and brimstone, gay hating, anti-abortion pastor of Immanuel Baptist Chruch in Wichita, Kansas who was dismissed by the church board because they said, "His activism was getting in the way of the Gospel." And within three months, other fundy pastors in Wichita were dismissed as well. Their congregations have grown tired of the weekly dose of the horrors of abortion and the eminence of the end times and the anti-Christ.

The Evangelical Crackup

In addition the highly successful mega-church movement with it's emphasis on the power of positive thinking and God's unconditional love seems to be functioning as an antidote for the toxic fumes of the apocalypse.

Christians, those who aren't insane with absolutism and guilt are growing tired of the scare tactics of the Bush administration. Their children are coming home in a box and they feel betrayed by the corruption and scandal. Many Christians, even fundies have morals after all. Many have values that go beyond hate and fear. Those I know personally feel betrayed by Bush. They have been telling me for some time now that they feel used. They feel they have no candidate and are declaring that they will vote for no one this election. They say that many of the members of their churches feel the same.

Many in the mega church movement are interested in Obama and his positive approach.

As the religious right disperses, so will the Republican party base grow weak. As Ralph Reed (I think it was Ralphy) long ago declared, the purely religious right candidate can't win, but a Republican candidate can't win without the support of an organized, solid religious right voter bloc.

But don't think that Robertson's fundies aren't still a significant bloc of the religious right. He's still got a TV show with an audience. Crazy people do vote, you know. I think Roberson's endorsement of Guilliani is likely related to the end time senero. Without Armageddon there can be no second coming. Many of the most extreme feel they need to help God out with his plan, ironic as that seems to be.

I think everyone's fed up with the Republicans, all but the rare 21 or so % who seem to be locked in no matter what. Surely these include Robertson's crazies. Guilliani is worse than Bush in his heavy handed power and control tactics.

I feel a bit of hope for humanity coming over me. I hope I'm not sorry.

Read this article and try to remedy your ignorance, george. (hi, btw) I expected the religious right to fall apart a long time ago. It held together so long, I was worried. They may be down, but they're not gone. The youngsters may establish real lasting change, but I wouldn't turn my back on them. Paranoia lurks where ever blind faith is glorified. They still bear watching. Silly george. Shame.

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nimh wrote:

So instead - new nimh graphics!

P.S.: Similar graphs for the Democrats HERE.

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I made a mistake on the number for Fred Thompson in Iowa - he was pegged too low in the graph.

Also, there's a new ABC/WaPo poll out for the Republican race in Iowa, which has good news for Huckabee (24%), Thompson (15%) and Ron Paul (6%).

So here's a new version of the graphs with updated data for Iowa:

http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/3977/ianhreps2zd8.png

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There was a development (on Monday, I think) that could have some interesting ramifications on the Nov 2008 elections (Congresional as well as Presidential on the national level and also on state and local ones).

The Supreme Court agreed to hear a case involving the 2nd amendment of our Constitution; that is, "the right to bear arms."

It will be, according to my now somewhat cryptic notes to myself, the first comprehensive case to be heard by the court on this in some 70 years.

The details of the case involve a ban on the possession of firearms that has been in place in the District of Columbia for decades. The plaintiff challanging the ban seems to be a poster child for the pro-gun advocates: a security guard with a clean criminal background who keeps a gun in his home in a crime-plagued neighborhood. In other words, a law-abiding guy who presumably has had weapon safety training and feels a real or perceived threat to his own security as well as his family.

Many layman have no problem with how they interpret the 2nd amendment. But for Constitutional scholars, the tortuous and ambiguous wording is a problem. Does it refer to a collective right of a group of people to organize a militia, or does it refer to an individual right to own a gun with no strings attached by any government (in this case, D.C.)

The issue deserves a thread of its own, but back to my point in the first paragraph. The Court apparently will hear the case in the spring of 2008 (March or April), with a decision BEFORE November.

-John(who does NOT have a bumper sticker reading "You can only take my gun from my cold, dead hands")Boy.

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On the other hand, just a few years ago a man was sitting in his living room in Denver Colorado cleaning his handgun (revolver) when the police arrived (having the wrong address) simply broke in his front door. He has the revolver he was cleaning in his hand when they busted down his door and shot him (he had a gun in his hands). Changes are needed but i don't know what they should be.

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dyslexia wrote:

On the other hand, just a few years ago a man was sitting in his living room in Denver Colorado cleaning his handgun (revolver) when the police arrived (having the wrong address) simply broke in his front door. He has the revolver he was cleaning in his hand when they busted down his door and shot him (he had a gun in his hands). Changes are needed but i don't know what they should be.

That sounds like a screwup by the Denver PD.
That does not change the fact that he had a right to own a gun, as does every other lawabiding citizen.

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On the conservative Commentary Magazine site, John Podhoretz is pushing for Giuliani. His take is not interesting. The comments section is.

It's fascinating to see these conservatives getting into each others hair over the nominees. And I dont even mean this just in a gleeful way, though there is that. They still have a lot of nominees to choose from who all still stand more or less of a chance, whereas the Dem race is reduced to a two- or (if you're really optimistic) three-horse race. The core partisans like blog posters usually are, are as evenly divided in sympathies as the overall Republican electorate, or more so. Discussion is fierce, though (in this intra-party setting) respectful.

One interesting main trend emerging from the comments is the divide between on the one hand, religious social conservatives who are not so gung-ho about the war and dont mind a bit of Huckabeean economic populism, versus on the other, cultural libertarian fiscal conservatives with a penchant for neoconservative war policies. It's like a long-married couple who are on the verge of giving up on their marriage of convenience and finally letting each other know what they really think of the other.

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That is interesting, nimh. We can see, in this thread of comments, something quite similar to what we see looking at the more high profile goings-on...the center isn't holding and folks are flying off hither and thither.

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How true. And contrast all this Republican discord with the sweet harmony prevailing among the Democrat candidates. From Clinton to Obama, Edwards, Dodd, Richardson, and the rest we see only reasoned discourse, courtesy, and wise restraint.

Nimh in particular is increasingly giving voice to sweeping generalities that are unknowable, unprovable and unbelievable.

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blatham wrote:

That is interesting, nimh. We can see, in this thread of comments, something quite similar to what we see looking at the more high profile goings-on...the center isn't holding and folks are flying off hither and thither.

This reminds me of a conversation almost four years ago, in a thread "Is Bush Invincible?"

[url=http://www.able2know.org/forums/viewtopic.php?p=546055#546055]On February2, 2004[/url], I wrote:

I believe that the Republican party is currently experiencing the political equivalent of a stock market bubble. Unlike the Democrats, Republicans lay their internal differences aside and stand behind their leaders because they're winning. And their leaders are winning because people at the base stand behind them and lay their internal differences aside. This is nice for Bush while the bubble keeps inflating, but it also means that any random glitch can pop the bubble, at which time he will face a most unpleasant awakening.

I don't know when this awakening will come, but I hope it will come before November 2004. It would be good both for America and the Republican party.

Four long years after I wanted it to, the Republican bubble is finally disinflating.

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A first(?) thread on 2008: McCain,Giuliani & the Republicans

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